Wisla Krakow 1-0 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cracovia Krakow at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wisla Krakow vs Cracovia Krakow encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana plays host to Wisla Krakow versus Cracovia Krakow in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Sunday 7 November 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Wisla Krakow have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wisla Krakow's home record at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana: 2W 1D 3L from 6 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.17 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
Cracovia Krakow (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D W D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cracovia Krakow's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 2L across 7 road games this term (1.29 PPG). Away from home they average 1.29 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Cracovia Krakow arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
Wisla Krakow — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Cracovia Krakow — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 31% of cases; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wisla Krakow 38% versus Cracovia Krakow 77%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wisla Krakow 62% | Cracovia Krakow 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Krakow 1.08 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Krakow attack 0.793 / defence 1.421 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.936 / defence 1.153. League average goals — home 1.187 / away 1.232. Wisla Krakow's attack strength of 0.793 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 13 Wisla Krakow games / 13 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Krakow 24% | Draw 27% | Cracovia Krakow 49%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Krakow 4.17 | Draw 3.70 | Cracovia Krakow 2.04. Cracovia Krakow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cracovia Krakow as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Wisla Krakow 33% | Cracovia Krakow 71%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Krakow vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Nov 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Krakow 24% | Draw 27% | Cracovia Krakow 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Wisla Krakow 1.08 / Cracovia Krakow 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Krakow attack 0.793 / def 1.421 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.936 / def 1.153 | league avg home 1.187 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Wisla Krakow xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Cracovia Krakow xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Krakow vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Wisla Krakow vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 7 November 2021 at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
What was the final score in Wisla Krakow vs Cracovia Krakow?
Wisla Krakow 1 - 0 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Wisla Krakow vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
What competition is Wisla Krakow vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Wisla Krakow vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Krakow vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Krakow a 24% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 49% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Krakow vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Wisla Krakow and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Krakow vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Krakow and Cracovia Krakow?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Wisla Krakow and Cracovia Krakow in?
Wisla Krakow (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Wisla Krakow's attack at 0.79x the league average against Cracovia Krakow's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cracovia Krakow's attack (0.94x) against Wisla Krakow's defence (1.42x) — and the away total comes out at 1.64.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
24%
4.19
27%
3.69
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Wisla Krakow xG
Total xG
2.72
1.64
Cracovia Krakow xG
4.19
24%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
19%
5.15
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
5%
21.58
17%
6.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 10.8 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.7 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.3 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Krakow vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Wisla Krakow and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Wisla Krakow and 1.64 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Krakow vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Wisla Krakow's recent record stands at 4W 2D 7L from 13 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Wisla Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cracovia Krakow, meanwhile, have gone 4W 5D 4L across 13 games — 1.31 PPG, with W-D-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Wisla Krakow against 1.31 for Cracovia Krakow. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Wisla Krakow have managed 2W 1D 3L from 6 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cracovia Krakow's away record stands at 2W 2D 2L across 6 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Wisla Krakow are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.54 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cracovia Krakow in 77%.
Last 13 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Krakow
Blended
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Krakow and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Wisla Krakow have gone 4W 2D 7L in their last 13 games (1.08 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 4W 5D 4L in their last 13 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Krakow at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Cracovia Krakow's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Krakow at home: 1.17 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Wisla Krakow
1
Draws
0
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Krakow and Cracovia Krakow?
From 2 meetings on record, Wisla Krakow have won 1, Cracovia Krakow have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Krakow and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2022, when Cracovia Krakow 0-0 Wisla Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Wisla Krakow and Cracovia Krakow?
Wisla Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Wisla Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Cracovia Krakow see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wisla Krakow 33%, Cracovia Krakow 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Wisla Krakow) and 50% (Cracovia Krakow). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wisla Krakow keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Wisla Krakow have failed to score in 33% of games; Cracovia Krakow in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Krakow home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Krakow play Cracovia Krakow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Wisla Krakow's recent matches and 67% of Cracovia Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wisla Krakow vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Wisla Krakow's matches and 50% of Cracovia Krakow's.
Do Wisla Krakow and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Wisla Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Wisla Krakow defy the odds to beat Cracovia Krakow 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wisla Krakow beat Cracovia Krakow 1-0 at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana, Regular Season - 14, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Krakow 1.08 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.64 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cracovia Krakow landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Krakow attack 0.79 / defence 1.42 against Cracovia Krakow attack 0.94 / defence 1.15, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wisla Krakow 24% | Draw 27% | Cracovia Krakow 49%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Wisla Krakow win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Krakow 62%, Cracovia Krakow 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wisla Krakow's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wisla Krakow 1.08 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wisla Krakow win broke the near-deadlock. Wisla Krakow (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.