Wieczysta Kraków 3-0 Wisla Plock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wisla Plock at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wieczysta Kraków vs Wisla Plock fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana plays host to Wieczysta Kraków versus Wisla Plock in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Friday 9 October 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Wieczysta Kraków have collected 0.62 PPG across 8 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 1W 2D 5L. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 1.38 goals per game and conceding 2.12 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.12 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Wieczysta Kraków, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wisla Plock (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Plock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Wisla Plock have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Wisla Plock arrive in superior form — a 0.58 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.62) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using overall form) — Wieczysta Kraków have seen both teams score in 75% of their games, Wisla Plock in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Wieczysta Kraków half-time and goal-timing data (8 games): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games; Over 3.5 in 38%.
Wisla Plock half-time and goal-timing data (8 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 38% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wieczysta Kraków 75% and Wisla Plock 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wieczysta Kraków 62% | Wisla Plock 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wieczysta Kraków 1.26 xG and Wisla Plock 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wieczysta Kraków attack 0.809 / defence 1.128 | Wisla Plock attack 0.985 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.536 / away 1.306. Data: 8 Wieczysta Kraków games / 42 Wisla Plock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wieczysta Kraków 29% | Draw 33% | Wisla Plock 38%. Fair-value odds: Wieczysta Kraków 3.45 | Draw 3.03 | Wisla Plock 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wisla Plock at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wisla Plock if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Wieczysta Kraków 75% | Wisla Plock 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wieczysta Kraków vs Wisla Plock | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana • Kick-off: Friday 9 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wieczysta Kraków 29% | Draw 33% | Wisla Plock 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 59% | xG Wieczysta Kraków 1.26 / Wisla Plock 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Wieczysta Kraków attack 0.809 / def 1.128 | Wisla Plock attack 0.985 / def 1.015 | league avg home 1.536 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: Wisla Plock (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Wieczysta Kraków xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Wisla Plock xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wieczysta Kraków vs Wisla Plock kick off?
Wieczysta Kraków vs Wisla Plock kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 9 October 2026 at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
What was the final score in Wieczysta Kraków vs Wisla Plock?
Wieczysta Kraków 3 - 0 Wisla Plock.
Where is Wieczysta Kraków vs Wisla Plock being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
What competition is Wieczysta Kraków vs Wisla Plock part of?
Wieczysta Kraków vs Wisla Plock is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wieczysta Kraków vs Wisla Plock?
Our statistical model gives Wieczysta Kraków a 29% chance of winning, Wisla Plock a 38% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Wisla Plock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wieczysta Kraków vs Wisla Plock?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Wieczysta Kraków and Wisla Plock will score (BTTS).
Will Wieczysta Kraków vs Wisla Plock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wieczysta Kraków and Wisla Plock?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Wieczysta Kraków and Wisla Plock in?
Wieczysta Kraków (all comps): 1W-2D-5L in 8 | 0.62 PPG | GF 1.38 / GA 2.12 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Wisla Plock (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Wieczysta Kraków's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Wisla Plock's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. Flip it around — Wisla Plock's attack (0.98x) against Wieczysta Kraków's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 8/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Plock Win
29%
3.43
33%
3.04
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Wieczysta Kraków xG
Total xG
2.71
1.45
Wisla Plock xG
3.43
29%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
23%
4.27
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
7%
14.64
11%
9.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 9.6 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.1 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.7 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wieczysta Kraków vs Wisla Plock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Wieczysta Kraków and Wisla Plock expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Wieczysta Kraków and 1.45 for Wisla Plock, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Wieczysta Kraków vs Wisla Plock?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Wieczysta Kraków's recent record stands at 1W 2D 5L from 8 games, a 0.62 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Wieczysta Kraków is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wisla Plock, meanwhile, have gone 3W 2D 3L across 8 games — 1.38 PPG, with L-L-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Wisla Plock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Wisla Plock by 0.76 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Wieczysta Kraków heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Wieczysta Kraków are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game recently; Wisla Plock are on 1.12 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wieczysta Kraków have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Last 8 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wieczysta Kraków
Blended
Wisla Plock
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wieczysta Kraków and Wisla Plock in coming into this match?
Wieczysta Kraków have gone 1W 2D 5L in their last 8 games (0.62 PPG), while Wisla Plock have gone 3W 2D 3L in their last 8 (1.38 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 9 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Wieczysta Kraków
0
Draws
0
Wisla Plock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wieczysta Kraków and Wisla Plock?
From 1 meetings on record, Wieczysta Kraków have won 1, Wisla Plock have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wieczysta Kraków and Wisla Plock last play each other?
They last met on 9 October 2026, when Wieczysta Kraków 3-0 Wisla Plock.
Who has won more matches between Wieczysta Kraków and Wisla Plock?
Wieczysta Kraków have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Wieczysta Kraków are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wieczysta Kraków 75%, Wisla Plock 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Wieczysta Kraków) and 50% (Wisla Plock). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wisla Plock in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wieczysta Kraków home games / Wisla Plock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wieczysta Kraków play Wisla Plock?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Wieczysta Kraków's games and 50% of Wisla Plock's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wieczysta Kraków vs Wisla Plock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Wieczysta Kraków's matches and 50% of Wisla Plock's.
Do Wieczysta Kraków and Wisla Plock tend to score early?
Wieczysta Kraków have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Wisla Plock in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Wieczysta Kraków run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Wisla Plock.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wieczysta Kraków beat Wisla Plock 3-0 at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana, Regular Season - 10, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wieczysta Kraków 1.26 xG and Wisla Plock 1.45 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Wieczysta Kraków beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Wisla Plock landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wieczysta Kraków attack 0.81 / defence 1.13 against Wisla Plock attack 0.98 / defence 1.01, drawn from 8/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wieczysta Kraków 29% | Draw 33% | Wisla Plock 38%, with Wisla Plock to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Wieczysta Kraków win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wieczysta Kraków 62%, Wisla Plock 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wieczysta Kraków's trading profile (8 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Wisla Plock's trading profile (8 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Wisla Plock arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.62. Form was overturned, with Wieczysta Kraków winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Wieczysta Kraków scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line. Wisla Plock managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.