Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Plock – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Widzew Łódź at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Plock encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 19 as Widzew Łódź welcome Wisla Plock to . Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 January 2027 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Widzew Łódź have gone 1W 6D 3L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D D D L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Widzew Łódź's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Widzew Łódź are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Wisla Plock — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Plock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wisla Plock's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Widzew Łódź) versus 1.20 (Wisla Plock). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Widzew Łódź, 0 for Wisla Plock and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 31 Jul 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Widzew Łódź in-play and half-time data (43 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Wisla Plock in-play and half-time data (43 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 54% versus Wisla Plock 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 49% | Wisla Plock 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.39 xG and Wisla Plock 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.787 / defence 0.984 | Wisla Plock attack 0.868 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.332. Widzew Łódź's attack strength of 0.787 is below the league average — the 1.39 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 45 Widzew Łódź games / 43 Wisla Plock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 39% | Draw 34% | Wisla Plock 27%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 2.56 | Draw 2.94 | Wisla Plock 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Widzew Łódź as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Widzew Łódź 60% | Wisla Plock 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Plock | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jan 2027, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 39% | Draw 34% | Wisla Plock 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 55% | xG Widzew Łódź 1.39 / Wisla Plock 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 0.787 / def 0.984 | Wisla Plock attack 0.868 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.539 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Widzew Łódź (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Wisla Plock xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Plock kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Plock is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 30 January 2027.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Plock part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Plock is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Plock?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 39% chance of winning, Wisla Plock a 27% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Widzew Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Plock?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Wisla Plock will score (BTTS).
Will Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Plock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Wisla Plock?
Record (5 meetings): Widzew Łódź 2W | Draws 3 | Wisla Plock 0W.
What form are Widzew Łódź and Wisla Plock in?
Widzew Łódź (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-L-D. Wisla Plock (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Widzew Łódź's attack at 0.79x the league average against Wisla Plock's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wisla Plock's attack versus Widzew Łódź's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Widzew Łódź Win
39%
2.57
34%
2.93
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
2.53
1.14
Wisla Plock xG
2.57
39%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
12%
8.01
7%
14.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.1 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.6 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Plock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Wisla Plock expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 1.14 for Wisla Plock, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Plock?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Widzew Łódź's recent record stands at 12W 13D 18L from 43 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with D-D-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wisla Plock, meanwhile, have gone 15W 12D 16L across 43 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-D-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Wisla Plock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Widzew Łódź on 1.14 PPG, Wisla Plock on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Widzew Łódź have managed 8W 8D 6L from 22 games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wisla Plock's away record stands at 5W 8D 9L across 22 trips, a 1.05 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Wisla Plock are on 1.00 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Blended
Wisla Plock
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Widzew Łódź and Wisla Plock in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 12W 13D 18L in their last 43 games (1.14 PPG), while Wisla Plock have gone 15W 12D 16L in their last 43 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Widzew Łódź at home or Wisla Plock away?
Widzew Łódź's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Widzew Łódź at home: 1.45 PPG; Wisla Plock away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Widzew Łódź or Wisla Plock been keeping clean sheets recently?
Widzew Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Wisla Plock in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 31 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Widzew Łódź's record when hosting Wisla Plock specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Widzew Łódź
3
Draws
0
Wisla Plock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Wisla Plock?
From 5 meetings on record, Widzew Łódź have won 2, Wisla Plock have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Wisla Plock last play each other?
They last met on 31 July 2026, when Wisla Plock 0-0 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Widzew Łódź and Wisla Plock?
Widzew Łódź have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Widzew Łódź 59%, Wisla Plock 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Widzew Łódź) and 46% (Wisla Plock).
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Wisla Plock in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Wisla Plock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Widzew Łódź play Wisla Plock?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Widzew Łódź's games and 64% of Wisla Plock's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Plock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Widzew Łódź's recent games and 46% of Wisla Plock's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Widzew Łódź and Wisla Plock tend to score early?
Widzew Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Wisla Plock in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.