Widzew Łódź 2-2 Wieczysta Kraków – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Widzew Łódź at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Widzew Łódź vs Wieczysta Kraków fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 9 as Widzew Łódź welcome Wieczysta Kraków to Stadion Widzewa Łódź. Kick-off is set for Friday 18 September 2026 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Widzew Łódź — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Widzew Łódź's home record at Stadion Widzewa Łódź: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Widzew Łódź are significantly better at Stadion Widzewa Łódź than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Wieczysta Kraków have recorded 1W 1D 5L from 7 outings — 0.57 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.29 per game is modest, conceding 2.14 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.14 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Wieczysta Kraków have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Wieczysta Kraków's away record: 1W 0D 4L from 5 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Widzew Łódź have the edge — a 0.53 PPG advantage (1.10 vs 0.57) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Widzew Łódź register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Wieczysta Kraków in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Widzew Łódź in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Wieczysta Kraków in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Widzew Łódź 57% and Wieczysta Kraków 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 43% | Wieczysta Kraków 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.89 xG and Wieczysta Kraków 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.900 / defence 1.099 | Wieczysta Kraków attack 0.948 / defence 1.391. League average goals — home 1.512 / away 1.243. Wieczysta Kraków bring a strong defensive rating of 1.391 — this is suppressing Widzew Łódź's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Widzew Łódź games / 7 Wieczysta Kraków games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 48% | Draw 28% | Wieczysta Kraków 23%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | Wieczysta Kraków 4.35. Widzew Łódź hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.89 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Widzew Łódź are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.19 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Widzew Łódź 60% | Wieczysta Kraków 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Wieczysta Kraków | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadion Widzewa Łódź • Kick-off: Friday 18 Sep 2026, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 48% | Draw 28% | Wieczysta Kraków 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 65% | xG Widzew Łódź 1.89 / Wieczysta Kraków 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 0.900 / def 1.099 | Wieczysta Kraków attack 0.948 / def 1.391 | league avg home 1.512 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Widzew Łódź (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Wieczysta Kraków xG
65%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Wieczysta Kraków kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Wieczysta Kraków kicked off at 16:30 on Friday 18 September 2026 at Stadion Widzewa Łódź.
What was the final score in Widzew Łódź vs Wieczysta Kraków?
Widzew Łódź 2 - 2 Wieczysta Kraków.
Where is Widzew Łódź vs Wieczysta Kraków being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Widzewa Łódź.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Wieczysta Kraków part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Wieczysta Kraków is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Wieczysta Kraków?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 48% chance of winning, Wieczysta Kraków a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Widzew Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Wieczysta Kraków?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Wieczysta Kraków will score (BTTS).
Will Widzew Łódź vs Wieczysta Kraków have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Wieczysta Kraków?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Widzew Łódź and Wieczysta Kraków in?
Widzew Łódź (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. Wieczysta Kraków (all comps): 1W-1D-5L in 7 | 0.57 PPG | GF 1.29 / GA 2.14 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Widzew Łódź's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Wieczysta Kraków's defensive record (1.39x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.89. The same calculation in reverse, Wieczysta Kraków's attack versus Widzew Łódź's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Widzew Łódź Win
48%
2.07
28%
3.51
23%
4.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
3.19
1.30
Wieczysta Kraków xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
4.32
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
15%
6.64
Win to Nil
13%
7.55
3%
28.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 10.1 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Wieczysta Kraków?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Wieczysta Kraków expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 1.30 for Wieczysta Kraków, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Wieczysta Kraków?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Widzew Łódź come into this having played 7 games, going 1W 4D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Wieczysta Kraków sit at 0.57 PPG from 7 outings (1W 1D 5L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Wieczysta Kraków, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Widzew Łódź carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Wieczysta Kraków — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Widzew Łódź's home form reads 0W 1D 2L across 3 games on their own ground, a 0.33 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.00 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Wieczysta Kraków have taken 0.00 points per game from 3 outings (0W 0D 3L). That's a step down from their 0.57 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Wieczysta Kraków's season.
The Goals Picture
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Wieczysta Kraków are on 1.29 scored and 2.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wieczysta Kraków in 71%.
Defensively: Widzew Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Early Season
Wieczysta Kraków
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Widzew Łódź and Wieczysta Kraków in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 1W 4D 2L in their last 7 games (1.00 PPG), while Wieczysta Kraków have gone 1W 1D 5L in their last 7 (0.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Widzew Łódź at home or Wieczysta Kraków away?
Widzew Łódź's home record (0.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Widzew Łódź at home: 0.33 PPG; Wieczysta Kraków away: 0.00 PPG.
Have Widzew Łódź or Wieczysta Kraków been keeping clean sheets recently?
Widzew Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Wieczysta Kraków in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Widzew Łódź and Wieczysta Kraków runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 18 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Widzew Łódź
1
Draws
0
Wieczysta Kraków
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Wieczysta Kraków?
From 1 meetings on record, Widzew Łódź have won 0, Wieczysta Kraków have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Wieczysta Kraków last play each other?
They last met on 18 September 2026, when Widzew Łódź 2-2 Wieczysta Kraków.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Wieczysta Kraków see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Widzew Łódź 67%, Wieczysta Kraków 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Widzew Łódź) and 33% (Wieczysta Kraków).
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Widzew Łódź have failed to score in 33% of games; Wieczysta Kraków in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Wieczysta Kraków away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Widzew Łódź play Wieczysta Kraków?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Widzew Łódź's recent matches and 33% of Wieczysta Kraków's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Widzew Łódź vs Wieczysta Kraków usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Widzew Łódź's recent games and 33% of Wieczysta Kraków's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Widzew Łódź and Wieczysta Kraków tend to score early?
Widzew Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Wieczysta Kraków in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Widzew Łódź and Wieczysta Kraków share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Widzewa Łódź, Regular Season - 9, as Widzew Łódź and Wieczysta Kraków drew 2-2 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.89 xG and Wieczysta Kraków 1.30 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 0.90 / defence 1.10 against Wieczysta Kraków attack 0.95 / defence 1.39, drawn from 42/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 48% | Draw 28% | Wieczysta Kraków 23%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 43%, Wieczysta Kraków 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Wieczysta Kraków's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Widzew Łódź arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.57. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Wieczysta Kraków (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.