Widzew Łódź 0-0 Raków Częstochowa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 11 as Widzew Łódź welcome Raków Częstochowa to Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź. Kick-off is set for Sunday 2 October 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Widzew Łódź have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Widzew Łódź at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź this season: 2W 0D 2L from 4 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Raków Częstochowa stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Raków Częstochowa's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Raków Częstochowa are 0.60 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Widzew Łódź trading profile (10 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Raków Częstochowa trading profile (10 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Widzew Łódź 40% | Raków Częstochowa 30%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 50% | Raków Częstochowa 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.41 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 1.004 / defence 1.170 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.033 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.197. Data: 10 Widzew Łódź games / 43 Raków Częstochowa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 37% | Draw 25% | Raków Częstochowa 38%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 2.70 | Draw 4.00 | Raków Częstochowa 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Raków Częstochowa at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Widzew Łódź 75% | Raków Częstochowa 30%.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Oct 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 37% | Draw 25% | Raków Częstochowa 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Widzew Łódź 1.41 / Raków Częstochowa 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 1.004 / def 1.170 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.033 / def 1.029 | league avg home 1.362 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Raków Częstochowa xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 2 October 2022 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What was the final score in Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa?
Widzew Łódź 0 - 0 Raków Częstochowa.
Where is Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 37% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa in?
Widzew Łódź (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Widzew Łódź's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Raków Częstochowa's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, Raków Częstochowa's attack versus Widzew Łódź's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
37%
2.73
25%
4.00
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
2.85
1.45
Raków Częstochowa xG
2.73
37%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
24%
4.25
25%
4.08
Win to Nil
9%
11.60
9%
10.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.3 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.7 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.3 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 1.45 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Widzew Łódź come into this having played 10 games, going 5W 1D 4L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Raków Częstochowa sit at 2.20 PPG from 10 outings (7W 1D 2L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Raków Częstochowa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Widzew Łódź — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Widzew Łódź's home form reads 2W 0D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Raków Częstochowa have taken 1.00 points per game from 3 outings (1W 0D 2L). That's a step down from their 2.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Raków Częstochowa's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Widzew Łódź come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 2.10 scored and 0.90 conceded. Raków Częstochowa's attacking output running into Widzew Łódź's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Raków Częstochowa in 30%.
Defensively: Widzew Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Raków Częstochowa in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Blended
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 games (1.60 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 (2.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Widzew Łódź at home or Raków Częstochowa away?
Widzew Łódź's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Widzew Łódź at home: 2.00 PPG; Raków Częstochowa away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Widzew Łódź or Raków Częstochowa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Widzew Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Raków Częstochowa in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Widzew Łódź's record when hosting Raków Częstochowa specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Widzew Łódź
3
Draws
5
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa?
From 8 meetings on record, Widzew Łódź have won 0, Raków Częstochowa have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Raków Częstochowa 1-1 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Widzew Łódź 67%, Raków Częstochowa 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Widzew Łódź and 67% for Raków Częstochowa. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Raków Częstochowa in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Widzew Łódź play Raków Częstochowa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Widzew Łódź's recent matches and 33% of Raków Częstochowa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Widzew Łódź's matches and 67% of Raków Częstochowa's.
Do Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
Widzew Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Widzew Łódź's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź, Regular Season - 11, as Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa drew 0-0 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.41 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.45 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Widzew Łódź fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Raków Częstochowa landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 1.00 / defence 1.17 against Raków Częstochowa attack 1.03 / defence 1.03, drawn from 10/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 37% | Draw 25% | Raków Częstochowa 38%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 38%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 50%, Raków Częstochowa 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (10 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (10 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.60. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.