Widzew Łódź 1-2 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Widzew Łódź at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Pogon Szczecin make the trip to Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź to face Widzew Łódź in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Friday 22 August 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Widzew Łódź (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Widzew Łódź have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Widzew Łódź at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Widzew Łódź are significantly better at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź than their overall form suggests.
Pogon Szczecin have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W D L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Pogon Szczecin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Pogon Szczecin have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Widzew Łódź, 1.20 for Pogon Szczecin — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 6 meetings, Pogon Szczecin have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to Widzew Łódź's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Feb 2025, ended 0–4 with Pogon Szczecin winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Pogon Szczecin have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Widzew Łódź goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Pogon Szczecin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 49% versus Pogon Szczecin 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 44% | Pogon Szczecin 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.75 xG and Pogon Szczecin 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.898 / defence 0.772 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.922 / defence 1.194. League average goals — home 1.636 / away 1.285. Widzew Łódź's defence rating of 0.772 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 39 Widzew Łódź games / 39 Pogon Szczecin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 57% | Draw 25% | Pogon Szczecin 19%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 1.75 | Draw 4.00 | Pogon Szczecin 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Widzew Łódź (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Widzew Łódź are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Widzew Łódź 20% | Pogon Szczecin 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź • Kick-off: Friday 22 Aug 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 57% | Draw 25% | Pogon Szczecin 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 50% | xG Widzew Łódź 1.75 / Pogon Szczecin 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 0.898 / def 0.772 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.922 / def 1.194 | league avg home 1.636 / away 1.285 • Poisson stance: Widzew Łódź (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Pogon Szczecin xG
50%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 22 August 2025 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What was the final score in Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin?
Widzew Łódź 1 - 2 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 57% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Widzew Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Pogon Szczecin will score (BTTS).
Will Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Pogon Szczecin?
Record (6 meetings): Widzew Łódź 0W | Draws 1 | Pogon Szczecin 5W.
What form are Widzew Łódź and Pogon Szczecin in?
Widzew Łódź (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Widzew Łódź's attack rating (0.90) and Pogon Szczecin's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pogon Szczecin's attack (0.92x) against Widzew Łódź's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 2-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Widzew Łódź Win
57%
1.77
25%
4.08
19%
5.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
2.67
0.92
Pogon Szczecin xG
1.77
57%
Home win
4.08
25%
Draw
5.30
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
17%
5.78
Win to Nil
23%
4.41
3%
30.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.2 | 11.1 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 0.92 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Widzew Łódź come into this having played 39 games, going 13W 8D 18L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Pogon Szczecin sit at 1.59 PPG from 39 outings (18W 8D 13L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Widzew Łódź against 1.59 for Pogon Szczecin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Widzew Łódź's home form reads 10W 3D 7L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.65 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — Widzew Łódź are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Pogon Szczecin have taken 0.90 points per game from 20 outings (4W 6D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.59 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Pogon Szczecin's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Widzew Łódź come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.69 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: Pogon Szczecin in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Early Season
Pogon Szczecin
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Widzew Łódź and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 13W 8D 18L in their last 39 games (1.21 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 18W 8D 13L in their last 39 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Widzew Łódź at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Widzew Łódź's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Widzew Łódź at home: 1.65 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Widzew Łódź or Pogon Szczecin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Widzew Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Pogon Szczecin in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Pogon Szczecin have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pogon Szczecin won 0-4 on 22 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Widzew Łódź have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Pogon Szczecin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Widzew Łódź
1
Draws
7
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Pogon Szczecin?
From 8 meetings on record, Widzew Łódź have won 0, Pogon Szczecin have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Pogon Szczecin 1-0 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Widzew Łódź and Pogon Szczecin?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Widzew Łódź 35%, Pogon Szczecin 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Widzew Łódź) and 55% (Pogon Szczecin).
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Widzew Łódź have failed to score in 30% of games; Pogon Szczecin in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Widzew Łódź play Pogon Szczecin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Widzew Łódź's recent matches and 60% of Pogon Szczecin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Widzew Łódź's recent games and 55% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Widzew Łódź and Pogon Szczecin tend to score early?
Widzew Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Pogon Szczecin in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Pogon Szczecin defy the odds to beat Widzew Łódź 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Widzew Łódź 1-2 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź, Regular Season - 6, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.75 xG and Pogon Szczecin 0.92 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Pogon Szczecin outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 0.90 / defence 0.77 against Pogon Szczecin attack 0.92 / defence 1.19, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 57% | Draw 25% | Pogon Szczecin 19%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Pogon Szczecin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 44%, Pogon Szczecin 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (39 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (39 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Widzew Łódź 1.21 PPG, Pogon Szczecin 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pogon Szczecin win broke the near-deadlock. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.