Widzew Łódź 1-1 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Widzew Łódź at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Legia Warszawa travel to Stadion Widzewa Lodz to take on Widzew Łódź. The game is scheduled for Sunday 2 November 2025, 19:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Widzew Łódź have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Widzew Łódź's home record at Stadion Widzewa Lodz: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Widzew Łódź are significantly better at Stadion Widzewa Lodz than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Legia Warszawa stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Legia Warszawa have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Widzew Łódź 1.00 PPG, Legia Warszawa 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour Legia Warszawa, who boast 4 victories compared to 1 for Widzew Łódź.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2025, ended 0–2 with Legia Warszawa winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Legia Warszawa have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Widzew Łódź in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Legia Warszawa in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 50% versus Legia Warszawa 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 50% | Legia Warszawa 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.53 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.898 / defence 0.949 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.994 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.637 / away 1.194. Data: 47 Widzew Łódź games / 46 Legia Warszawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 45% | Draw 28% | Legia Warszawa 27%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Legia Warszawa 3.70. Widzew Łódź hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Widzew Łódź at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Widzew Łódź 40% | Legia Warszawa 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadion Widzewa Lodz • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Nov 2025, 19:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 45% | Draw 28% | Legia Warszawa 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Widzew Łódź 1.53 / Legia Warszawa 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 0.898 / def 0.949 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.994 / def 1.037 | league avg home 1.637 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Widzew Łódź (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Legia Warszawa xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 19:15 on Sunday 2 November 2025 at Stadion Widzewa Lodz.
What was the final score in Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa?
Widzew Łódź 1 - 1 Legia Warszawa.
Where is Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Widzewa Lodz.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 45% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Widzew Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Legia Warszawa will score (BTTS).
Will Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Legia Warszawa?
Record (6 meetings): Widzew Łódź 1W | Draws 1 | Legia Warszawa 4W.
What form are Widzew Łódź and Legia Warszawa in?
Widzew Łódź (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Legia Warszawa (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Widzew Łódź's attack rating (0.90) and Legia Warszawa's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Legia Warszawa's attack versus Widzew Łódź's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Widzew Łódź Win
45%
2.20
28%
3.62
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
2.65
1.13
Legia Warszawa xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
15%
6.80
6%
17.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.1 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 1.13 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Widzew Łódź's recent record stands at 16W 7D 23L from 46 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Legia Warszawa, meanwhile, have gone 19W 13D 14L across 46 games — 1.52 PPG, with D-W-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Widzew Łódź on 1.20 PPG, Legia Warszawa on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Widzew Łódź have managed 11W 3D 9L from 23 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Legia Warszawa's away record stands at 7W 6D 10L across 23 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Widzew Łódź come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.61 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Legia Warszawa in 61%.
Last 46 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Blended
Legia Warszawa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Widzew Łódź and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 16W 7D 23L in their last 46 games (1.20 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 19W 13D 14L in their last 46 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Widzew Łódź at home or Legia Warszawa away?
Widzew Łódź's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Widzew Łódź at home: 1.57 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Widzew Łódź and Legia Warszawa runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Widzew Łódź's record when hosting Legia Warszawa specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Widzew Łódź
2
Draws
5
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Legia Warszawa?
From 8 meetings on record, Widzew Łódź have won 1, Legia Warszawa have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Legia Warszawa 1-0 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Widzew Łódź and Legia Warszawa?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Widzew Łódź 35%, Legia Warszawa 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Widzew Łódź) and 56% (Legia Warszawa).
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Widzew Łódź have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Widzew Łódź play Legia Warszawa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Widzew Łódź's recent matches and 65% of Legia Warszawa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Widzew Łódź's recent games and 56% of Legia Warszawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Widzew Łódź and Legia Warszawa tend to score early?
Widzew Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Legia Warszawa in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Widzew Łódź and Legia Warszawa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Widzew Łódź and Legia Warszawa finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Widzewa Lodz, Regular Season - 14, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.53 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.13 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 0.90 / defence 0.95 against Legia Warszawa attack 0.99 / defence 1.04, drawn from 47/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 45% | Draw 28% | Legia Warszawa 27%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 50%, Legia Warszawa 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Widzew Łódź 1.20 PPG, Legia Warszawa 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.