Warta Poznań 2-1 Slask Wroclaw – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slask Wroclaw at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Warta Poznań vs Slask Wroclaw encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Slask Wroclaw travel to Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii to take on Warta Poznań. The game is scheduled for Monday 13 December 2021, 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Warta Poznań — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Warta Poznań, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Warta Poznań have posted 0W 5D 4L at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii — 0.56 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.44 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Slask Wroclaw have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Slask Wroclaw, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slask Wroclaw's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 4L across 9 road games this term (1.22 PPG). They are averaging 1.89 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 78% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Slask Wroclaw — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Warta Poznań, 0 for Slask Wroclaw and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Jul 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Warta Poznań in-play tendencies (17 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 11% of games (home games); they fail to score in 59% of games.
Slask Wroclaw in-play tendencies (17 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Warta Poznań 29% versus Slask Wroclaw 76%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Warta Poznań 24% | Slask Wroclaw 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Warta Poznań 0.89 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Warta Poznań attack 0.521 / defence 1.189 | Slask Wroclaw attack 1.138 / defence 1.410. League average goals — home 1.207 / away 1.197. Warta Poznań's attack strength of 0.521 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Slask Wroclaw bring a strong defensive rating of 1.410 — this is suppressing Warta Poznań's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Warta Poznań games / 17 Slask Wroclaw games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Warta Poznań 21% | Draw 25% | Slask Wroclaw 55%. Fair-value odds: Warta Poznań 4.76 | Draw 4.00 | Slask Wroclaw 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Slask Wroclaw (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slask Wroclaw are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. This conflicts with form data: Warta Poznań 44% | Slask Wroclaw 78% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Warta Poznań vs Slask Wroclaw | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii • Kick-off: Monday 13 Dec 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Warta Poznań 21% | Draw 25% | Slask Wroclaw 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 47% | xG Warta Poznań 0.89 / Slask Wroclaw 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Warta Poznań attack 0.521 / def 1.189 | Slask Wroclaw attack 1.138 / def 1.410 | league avg home 1.207 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Slask Wroclaw (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Warta Poznań xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Slask Wroclaw xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Warta Poznań vs Slask Wroclaw kick off?
Warta Poznań vs Slask Wroclaw kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 13 December 2021 at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii.
What was the final score in Warta Poznań vs Slask Wroclaw?
Warta Poznań 2 - 1 Slask Wroclaw.
Where is Warta Poznań vs Slask Wroclaw being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii.
What competition is Warta Poznań vs Slask Wroclaw part of?
Warta Poznań vs Slask Wroclaw is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Warta Poznań vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our statistical model gives Warta Poznań a 21% chance of winning, Slask Wroclaw a 55% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Slask Wroclaw the favourite.
Will both teams score in Warta Poznań vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Warta Poznań and Slask Wroclaw will score (BTTS).
Will Warta Poznań vs Slask Wroclaw have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Warta Poznań and Slask Wroclaw?
Record (1 meetings): Warta Poznań 0W | Draws 1 | Slask Wroclaw 0W.
What form are Warta Poznań and Slask Wroclaw in?
Warta Poznań (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Warta Poznań's attack rating (0.52) and Slask Wroclaw's defence rating (1.41), the model arrives at 0.89 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Slask Wroclaw's attack versus Warta Poznań's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.7%), 0-2 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slask Wroclaw Win
21%
4.87
25%
4.03
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
0 – 2
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Warta Poznań xG
Total xG
2.51
1.62
Slask Wroclaw xG
4.87
21%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
20%
5.05
41%
2.43
Win to Nil
4%
24.60
23%
4.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 13.2 | 10.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.7 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Warta Poznań vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Warta Poznań and Slask Wroclaw expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Warta Poznań and 1.62 for Slask Wroclaw, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Warta Poznań vs Slask Wroclaw?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 17 outings, Warta Poznań have picked up 0.71 PPG on a 2W 6D 9L record — L-W-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Warta Poznań is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slask Wroclaw's form line: 6W 6D 5L from 17 games, 1.41 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-L. The sample for Slask Wroclaw is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Slask Wroclaw are the form team by 0.70 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Warta Poznań.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Warta Poznań have posted 0.56 PPG from 9 outings (0W 5D 4L).
On the road, Slask Wroclaw have gone 3W 2D 4L from 9 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slask Wroclaw come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Warta Poznań are averaging 0.65 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Slask Wroclaw are on 1.71 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Warta Poznań have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games; Slask Wroclaw in 76%.
Last 17 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Warta Poznań
Blended
Slask Wroclaw
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Warta Poznań and Slask Wroclaw in coming into this match?
Warta Poznań have gone 2W 6D 9L in their last 17 games (0.71 PPG), while Slask Wroclaw have gone 6W 6D 5L in their last 17 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Warta Poznań at home or Slask Wroclaw away?
Slask Wroclaw's away record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Warta Poznań at home: 0.56 PPG; Slask Wroclaw away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Warta Poznań and Slask Wroclaw runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Slask Wroclaw have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Warta Poznań's record when hosting Slask Wroclaw specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Warta Poznań
1
Draws
2
Slask Wroclaw
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Warta Poznań and Slask Wroclaw?
From 6 meetings on record, Warta Poznań have won 3, Slask Wroclaw have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Warta Poznań and Slask Wroclaw last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2024, when Slask Wroclaw 2-1 Warta Poznań.
Who has won more matches between Warta Poznań and Slask Wroclaw?
Warta Poznań have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Warta Poznań see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Slask Wroclaw are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Warta Poznań 44%, Slask Wroclaw 78% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 11% (Warta Poznań) and 78% (Slask Wroclaw).
On the defensive side: Warta Poznań have failed to score in 56% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Warta Poznań home games / Slask Wroclaw away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Warta Poznań play Slask Wroclaw?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Warta Poznań's games and 78% of Slask Wroclaw's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Warta Poznań vs Slask Wroclaw usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 11% of Warta Poznań's recent games and 78% of Slask Wroclaw's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Warta Poznań and Slask Wroclaw tend to score early?
Warta Poznań have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Slask Wroclaw in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Warta Poznań defy the odds to beat Slask Wroclaw 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Warta Poznań beat Slask Wroclaw 2-1 at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii, Regular Season - 18, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Warta Poznań 0.89 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.62 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Warta Poznań beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Warta Poznań attack 0.52 / defence 1.19 against Slask Wroclaw attack 1.14 / defence 1.41, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Warta Poznań 21% | Draw 25% | Slask Wroclaw 55%, with Slask Wroclaw to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Warta Poznań win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Warta Poznań 24%, Slask Wroclaw 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Warta Poznań's trading profile (17 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did.
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (17 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Slask Wroclaw arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.71. Form was overturned, with Warta Poznań winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Warta Poznań (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.44 average — above their attacking norm. Slask Wroclaw (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.