Warta Poznań 1-1 Górnik Łęczna – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Górnik Łęczna at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Warta Poznań vs Górnik Łęczna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 20 as Warta Poznań welcome Górnik Łęczna to Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii. Kick-off is set for Sunday 6 February 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Warta Poznań have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Warta Poznań, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Warta Poznań's home record at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Górnik Łęczna stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Górnik Łęczna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Górnik Łęczna's away record: 2W 2D 5L from 9 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.89 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Warta Poznań) versus 1.30 (Górnik Łęczna). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Warta Poznań have won 1, Górnik Łęczna 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2021, ended 4–0 with Warta Poznań winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Warta Poznań in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
Górnik Łęczna in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Warta Poznań 37% versus Górnik Łęczna 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Warta Poznań 26% | Górnik Łęczna 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Warta Poznań 0.98 xG and Górnik Łęczna 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Warta Poznań attack 0.668 / defence 1.162 | Górnik Łęczna attack 0.847 / defence 1.221. League average goals — home 1.202 / away 1.218. Warta Poznań's attack strength of 0.668 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Górnik Łęczna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.221 — this is suppressing Warta Poznań's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Warta Poznań games / 19 Górnik Łęczna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Warta Poznań 30% | Draw 29% | Górnik Łęczna 41%. Fair-value odds: Warta Poznań 3.33 | Draw 3.45 | Górnik Łęczna 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Górnik Łęczna are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Górnik Łęczna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.18 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Warta Poznań 50% | Górnik Łęczna 67%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Warta Poznań vs Górnik Łęczna | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Feb 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Warta Poznań 30% | Draw 29% | Górnik Łęczna 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Warta Poznań 0.98 / Górnik Łęczna 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Warta Poznań attack 0.668 / def 1.162 | Górnik Łęczna attack 0.847 / def 1.221 | league avg home 1.202 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Górnik Łęczna (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Warta Poznań xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Górnik Łęczna xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Warta Poznań vs Górnik Łęczna kick off?
Warta Poznań vs Górnik Łęczna kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 6 February 2022 at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii.
What was the final score in Warta Poznań vs Górnik Łęczna?
Warta Poznań 1 - 1 Górnik Łęczna.
Where is Warta Poznań vs Górnik Łęczna being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii.
What competition is Warta Poznań vs Górnik Łęczna part of?
Warta Poznań vs Górnik Łęczna is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Warta Poznań vs Górnik Łęczna?
Our statistical model gives Warta Poznań a 30% chance of winning, Górnik Łęczna a 41% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Górnik Łęczna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Warta Poznań vs Górnik Łęczna?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Warta Poznań and Górnik Łęczna will score (BTTS).
Will Warta Poznań vs Górnik Łęczna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Warta Poznań and Górnik Łęczna?
Record (1 meetings): Warta Poznań 1W | Draws 0 | Górnik Łęczna 0W.
What form are Warta Poznań and Górnik Łęczna in?
Warta Poznań (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. Górnik Łęczna (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Warta Poznań's attack at 0.67x the league average against Górnik Łęczna's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Górnik Łęczna's attack versus Warta Poznań's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 0-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Górnik Łęczna Win
30%
3.34
29%
3.44
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Warta Poznań xG
Total xG
2.18
1.20
Górnik Łęczna xG
3.34
30%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
9%
11.08
15%
6.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 13.6 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.3 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Warta Poznań vs Górnik Łęczna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Warta Poznań and Górnik Łęczna expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Warta Poznań and 1.20 for Górnik Łęczna, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Warta Poznań vs Górnik Łęczna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Warta Poznań come into this having played 19 games, going 3W 7D 9L for 0.84 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-D. The sample for Warta Poznań is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Górnik Łęczna sit at 0.95 PPG from 19 outings (4W 6D 9L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Górnik Łęczna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Warta Poznań on 0.84 PPG, Górnik Łęczna on 0.95. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Warta Poznań's home form reads 1W 4D 4L across 9 games on their own ground, a 0.78 PPG return.
Away from home, Górnik Łęczna have taken 0.89 points per game from 9 outings (2W 2D 5L).
The Goals Picture
Warta Poznań are averaging 0.74 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Górnik Łęczna are on 1.00 scored and 1.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Górnik Łęczna in 68%.
Last 19 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Warta Poznań
Blended
Górnik Łęczna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Warta Poznań and Górnik Łęczna in coming into this match?
Warta Poznań have gone 3W 7D 9L in their last 19 games (0.84 PPG), while Górnik Łęczna have gone 4W 6D 9L in their last 19 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Warta Poznań at home or Górnik Łęczna away?
Górnik Łęczna's away record (0.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Warta Poznań at home: 0.78 PPG; Górnik Łęczna away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Warta Poznań and Górnik Łęczna runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Warta Poznań
1
Draws
0
Górnik Łęczna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Warta Poznań and Górnik Łęczna?
From 2 meetings on record, Warta Poznań have won 1, Górnik Łęczna have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Warta Poznań and Górnik Łęczna last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2022, when Warta Poznań 1-1 Górnik Łęczna.
Who has won more matches between Warta Poznań and Górnik Łęczna?
Warta Poznań have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Warta Poznań see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Górnik Łęczna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Warta Poznań 44%, Górnik Łęczna 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 22% (Warta Poznań) and 56% (Górnik Łęczna).
On the defensive side: Warta Poznań have failed to score in 56% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Warta Poznań home games / Górnik Łęczna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Warta Poznań play Górnik Łęczna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Warta Poznań's games and 67% of Górnik Łęczna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Warta Poznań vs Górnik Łęczna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Warta Poznań's recent games and 56% of Górnik Łęczna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Warta Poznań and Górnik Łęczna tend to score early?
Warta Poznań have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Górnik Łęczna in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Warta Poznań and Górnik Łęczna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii, Regular Season - 20, as Warta Poznań and Górnik Łęczna drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Warta Poznań 0.98 xG and Górnik Łęczna 1.20 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Warta Poznań attack 0.67 / defence 1.16 against Górnik Łęczna attack 0.85 / defence 1.22, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Warta Poznań 30% | Draw 29% | Górnik Łęczna 41%, with Górnik Łęczna to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Warta Poznań 26%, Górnik Łęczna 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Warta Poznań's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did.
Górnik Łęczna's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Warta Poznań 0.84 PPG, Górnik Łęczna 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Górnik Łęczna (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.