Warta Poznań 0-0 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Warta Poznań at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Warta Poznań vs Cracovia Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Warta Poznań and Cracovia Krakow meet at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 12 March 2023 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Warta Poznań's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Warta Poznań, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Warta Poznań have posted 2W 5D 3L at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii this season.
Cracovia Krakow (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cracovia Krakow's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Warta Poznań, 1 for Cracovia Krakow and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2022, ended 2–0 with Warta Poznań winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Warta Poznań — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Cracovia Krakow — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Warta Poznań 39% versus Cracovia Krakow 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Warta Poznań 32% | Cracovia Krakow 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Warta Poznań 1.65 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Warta Poznań attack 1.153 / defence 1.005 | Cracovia Krakow attack 1.009 / defence 1.133. League average goals — home 1.262 / away 1.093. Data: 57 Warta Poznań games / 57 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Warta Poznań 50% | Draw 24% | Cracovia Krakow 26%. Fair-value odds: Warta Poznań 2.00 | Draw 4.17 | Cracovia Krakow 3.85. Warta Poznań hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Warta Poznań at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Warta Poznań if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Warta Poznań 60% | Cracovia Krakow 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Warta Poznań vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Mar 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Warta Poznań 50% | Draw 24% | Cracovia Krakow 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG Warta Poznań 1.65 / Cracovia Krakow 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Warta Poznań attack 1.153 / def 1.005 | Cracovia Krakow attack 1.009 / def 1.133 | league avg home 1.262 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Warta Poznań (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Warta Poznań xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Cracovia Krakow xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Warta Poznań vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Warta Poznań vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 12 March 2023 at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii.
What was the final score in Warta Poznań vs Cracovia Krakow?
Warta Poznań 0 - 0 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Warta Poznań vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii.
What competition is Warta Poznań vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Warta Poznań vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Warta Poznań vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Warta Poznań a 50% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Warta Poznań the favourite.
Will both teams score in Warta Poznań vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Warta Poznań and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Warta Poznań vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Warta Poznań and Cracovia Krakow?
Record (3 meetings): Warta Poznań 2W | Draws 0 | Cracovia Krakow 1W.
What form are Warta Poznań and Cracovia Krakow in?
Warta Poznań (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Warta Poznań's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Cracovia Krakow's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. Flip it around — Cracovia Krakow's attack (1.01x) against Warta Poznań's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Warta Poznań Win
50%
2.00
24%
4.09
26%
3.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Warta Poznań xG
Total xG
2.76
1.11
Cracovia Krakow xG
2.00
50%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
3.91
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
19%
5.20
Win to Nil
17%
6.06
5%
20.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.6 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Warta Poznań vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Warta Poznań and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Warta Poznań and 1.11 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Warta Poznań vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 57 outings, Warta Poznań have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 20W 15D 22L record — D-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Warta Poznań is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cracovia Krakow's form line: 21W 16D 20L from 57 games, 1.39 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-D. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Warta Poznań against 1.39 for Cracovia Krakow. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Warta Poznań have posted 1.04 PPG from 28 outings (6W 11D 11L).
On the road, Cracovia Krakow have gone 8W 8D 12L from 28 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Warta Poznań are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.18 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Warta Poznań
Blended
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Warta Poznań and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Warta Poznań have gone 20W 15D 22L in their last 57 games (1.32 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 21W 16D 20L in their last 57 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Warta Poznań at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Cracovia Krakow's away record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Warta Poznań at home: 1.04 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Warta Poznań or Cracovia Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Warta Poznań have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Cracovia Krakow in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Warta Poznań have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cracovia Krakow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Warta Poznań
2
Draws
1
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Warta Poznań and Cracovia Krakow?
From 6 meetings on record, Warta Poznań have won 3, Cracovia Krakow have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Warta Poznań and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2024, when Cracovia Krakow 0-1 Warta Poznań.
Who has won more matches between Warta Poznań and Cracovia Krakow?
Warta Poznań have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Warta Poznań see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Warta Poznań 57%, Cracovia Krakow 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Warta Poznań) and 36% (Cracovia Krakow).
On the defensive side: Warta Poznań have failed to score in 36% of games; Cracovia Krakow in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Warta Poznań home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Warta Poznań play Cracovia Krakow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Warta Poznań's recent matches and 46% of Cracovia Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Warta Poznań vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Warta Poznań's recent games and 36% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Warta Poznań and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Warta Poznań have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Warta Poznań's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Warta Poznań and Cracovia Krakow finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii, Regular Season - 24, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Warta Poznań 1.65 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.11 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Warta Poznań fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Cracovia Krakow landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Warta Poznań attack 1.15 / defence 1.00 against Cracovia Krakow attack 1.01 / defence 1.13, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Warta Poznań 50% | Draw 24% | Cracovia Krakow 26%, with Warta Poznań to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Warta Poznań 32%, Cracovia Krakow 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Warta Poznań's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Warta Poznań 1.32 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Warta Poznań (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.