Stal Mielec 2-1 Wisla Plock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stal Mielec at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stal Mielec vs Wisla Plock fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Wisla Plock make the trip to Stadion MOSiR to face Stal Mielec in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Friday 3 December 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Stal Mielec (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Stal Mielec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stal Mielec's home record at Stadion MOSiR: 4W 2D 2L from 8 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.75 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Wisla Plock have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Plock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wisla Plock away from home this season: 1W 0D 7L from 8 away games — 0.38 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.38 goals scored and 2.62 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.38 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Stal Mielec — key trading statistics (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Wisla Plock — key trading statistics (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stal Mielec 56% versus Wisla Plock 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stal Mielec 50% | Wisla Plock 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stal Mielec 2.26 xG and Wisla Plock 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stal Mielec attack 1.052 / defence 1.289 | Wisla Plock attack 0.988 / defence 1.758. League average goals — home 1.225 / away 1.178. Wisla Plock bring a strong defensive rating of 1.758 — this is suppressing Stal Mielec's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Stal Mielec games / 16 Wisla Plock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stal Mielec 55% | Draw 20% | Wisla Plock 25%. Fair-value odds: Stal Mielec 1.82 | Draw 5.00 | Wisla Plock 4.00. The model has a clear lean to Stal Mielec (55%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.76. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.76 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.26 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stal Mielec are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 73% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Stal Mielec 38% | Wisla Plock 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stal Mielec vs Wisla Plock | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadion MOSiR • Kick-off: Friday 3 Dec 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stal Mielec 55% | Draw 20% | Wisla Plock 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 70% | xG Stal Mielec 2.26 / Wisla Plock 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Stal Mielec attack 1.052 / def 1.289 | Wisla Plock attack 0.988 / def 1.758 | league avg home 1.225 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Stal Mielec (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.26
Stal Mielec xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Wisla Plock xG
70%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stal Mielec vs Wisla Plock kick off?
Stal Mielec vs Wisla Plock kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 3 December 2021 at Stadion MOSiR.
What was the final score in Stal Mielec vs Wisla Plock?
Stal Mielec 2 - 1 Wisla Plock.
Where is Stal Mielec vs Wisla Plock being played?
The match is being played at Stadion MOSiR.
What competition is Stal Mielec vs Wisla Plock part of?
Stal Mielec vs Wisla Plock is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Stal Mielec vs Wisla Plock?
Our statistical model gives Stal Mielec a 55% chance of winning, Wisla Plock a 25% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Stal Mielec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stal Mielec vs Wisla Plock?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Stal Mielec and Wisla Plock will score (BTTS).
Will Stal Mielec vs Wisla Plock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Wisla Plock?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stal Mielec and Wisla Plock in?
Stal Mielec (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. Wisla Plock (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Stal Mielec's attack rating (1.05) and Wisla Plock's defence rating (1.76), the model arrives at 2.26 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Wisla Plock's attack (0.99x) against Stal Mielec's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.9%), 3-1 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Stal Mielec Win
55%
1.82
20%
5.00
25%
3.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.9%
Draw
2 – 2
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.26
Stal Mielec xG
Total xG
3.76
1.50
Wisla Plock xG
1.82
55%
Home win
5.00
20%
Draw
3.98
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.44
30%
BTTS No
3.29
Clean Sheet
22%
4.49
10%
9.62
Win to Nil
12%
8.18
3%
38.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 7.9 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.9 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.7 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stal Mielec vs Wisla Plock?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are Stal Mielec and Wisla Plock expected to score?
The model projects 2.26 expected goals for Stal Mielec and 1.50 for Wisla Plock, a combined total of 3.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Stal Mielec vs Wisla Plock?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Stal Mielec come into this having played 16 games, going 5W 6D 5L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-L. The sample for Stal Mielec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Wisla Plock sit at 1.44 PPG from 16 outings (7W 2D 7L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Wisla Plock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Stal Mielec against 1.44 for Wisla Plock. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Stal Mielec's home form reads 4W 2D 2L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.31 PPG overall — Stal Mielec are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Wisla Plock have taken 0.38 points per game from 8 outings (1W 0D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.44 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Wisla Plock's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stal Mielec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stal Mielec are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Wisla Plock are on 1.62 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 16 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stal Mielec
Blended
Wisla Plock
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stal Mielec and Wisla Plock in coming into this match?
Stal Mielec have gone 5W 6D 5L in their last 16 games (1.31 PPG), while Wisla Plock have gone 7W 2D 7L in their last 16 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stal Mielec at home or Wisla Plock away?
Stal Mielec's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stal Mielec at home: 1.75 PPG; Wisla Plock away: 0.38 PPG.
Have Stal Mielec or Wisla Plock been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stal Mielec have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Wisla Plock in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wisla Plock won 3-0 on 21 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stal Mielec have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Wisla Plock — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Stal Mielec
2
Draws
1
Wisla Plock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Wisla Plock?
From 4 meetings on record, Stal Mielec have won 1, Wisla Plock have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stal Mielec and Wisla Plock last play each other?
They last met on 7 May 2023, when Wisla Plock 0-0 Stal Mielec.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stal Mielec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stal Mielec 38%, Wisla Plock 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Stal Mielec and 75% for Wisla Plock. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 62% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stal Mielec keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Stal Mielec have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stal Mielec home games / Wisla Plock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stal Mielec play Wisla Plock?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 38% of Stal Mielec's games and 75% of Wisla Plock's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stal Mielec vs Wisla Plock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Stal Mielec's matches and 75% of Wisla Plock's.
Do Stal Mielec and Wisla Plock tend to score early?
Stal Mielec have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Wisla Plock in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Stal Mielec edge out Wisla Plock 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stal Mielec beat Wisla Plock 2-1 at Stadion MOSiR, Regular Season - 17, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stal Mielec 2.26 xG and Wisla Plock 1.50 xG, a combined 3.76. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stal Mielec attack 1.05 / defence 1.29 against Wisla Plock attack 0.99 / defence 1.76, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stal Mielec 55% | Draw 20% | Wisla Plock 25%, with Stal Mielec to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stal Mielec 50%, Wisla Plock 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stal Mielec's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Wisla Plock's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stal Mielec 1.31 PPG, Wisla Plock 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stal Mielec win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.