Stal Mielec 0-3 Raków Częstochowa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stal Mielec at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stal Mielec vs Raków Częstochowa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Stal Mielec and Raków Częstochowa meet at Stadion MOSiR in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 19 September 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Stal Mielec's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 2W 2D 3L from 7 games (1.14 PPG). Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.43 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Stal Mielec have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Stal Mielec at Stadion MOSiR this season: 2W 0D 1L from 3 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.14 — Stal Mielec are significantly better at Stadion MOSiR than their overall form suggests.
Raków Częstochowa have collected 1.60 PPG across 5 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 2W 2D 1L. Last five: W L W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Raków Częstochowa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Raków Częstochowa have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 away fixtures this term (1.75 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.14 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Stal Mielec — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games.
Raków Częstochowa — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Stal Mielec 60% and Raków Częstochowa 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stal Mielec 40% | Raków Częstochowa 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stal Mielec 1.33 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stal Mielec attack 0.949 / defence 1.133 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.980 / defence 1.232. League average goals — home 1.140 / away 1.100. Raków Częstochowa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.232 — this is suppressing Stal Mielec's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Stal Mielec games / 5 Raków Częstochowa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stal Mielec 37% | Draw 31% | Raków Częstochowa 32%. Fair-value odds: Stal Mielec 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Raków Częstochowa 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stal Mielec are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stal Mielec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Stal Mielec 33% | Raków Częstochowa 75%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stal Mielec vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadion MOSiR • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Sep 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stal Mielec 37% | Draw 31% | Raków Częstochowa 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 54% | xG Stal Mielec 1.33 / Raków Częstochowa 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Stal Mielec attack 0.949 / def 1.133 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.980 / def 1.232 | league avg home 1.140 / away 1.100 • Poisson stance: Stal Mielec (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Stal Mielec xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Raków Częstochowa xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stal Mielec vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Stal Mielec vs Raków Częstochowa kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 19 September 2021 at Stadion MOSiR.
What was the final score in Stal Mielec vs Raków Częstochowa?
Stal Mielec 0 - 3 Raków Częstochowa.
Where is Stal Mielec vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion MOSiR.
What competition is Stal Mielec vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Stal Mielec vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Stal Mielec vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Stal Mielec a 37% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Stal Mielec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stal Mielec vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Stal Mielec and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Stal Mielec vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Raków Częstochowa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stal Mielec and Raków Częstochowa in?
Stal Mielec (all comps): 2W-2D-3L in 7 | 1.14 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.43 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 2W-2D-1L in 5 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Stal Mielec's attack at 0.95x the league average against Raków Częstochowa's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Raków Częstochowa's attack (0.98x) against Stal Mielec's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 7/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stal Mielec Win
37%
2.68
31%
3.26
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Stal Mielec xG
Total xG
2.55
1.22
Raków Częstochowa xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
26%
3.79
Win to Nil
11%
9.10
8%
11.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.7 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stal Mielec vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Stal Mielec and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Stal Mielec and 1.22 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Stal Mielec vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Stal Mielec come into this having played 5 games, going 2W 1D 2L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Stal Mielec, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Raków Częstochowa sit at 1.60 PPG from 5 outings (2W 2D 1L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Stal Mielec against 1.60 for Raków Częstochowa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Stal Mielec are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.60 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stal Mielec have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Raków Częstochowa in 80%.
Last 5 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stal Mielec
Early Season
Raków Częstochowa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stal Mielec and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Stal Mielec have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 games (1.40 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 (1.60 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Raków Częstochowa have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Raków Częstochowa won 0-3 on 19 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stal Mielec have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Raków Częstochowa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Stal Mielec
2
Draws
6
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Raków Częstochowa?
From 8 meetings on record, Stal Mielec have won 0, Raków Częstochowa have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stal Mielec and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2025, when Stal Mielec 0-2 Raków Częstochowa.
Who has won more matches between Stal Mielec and Raków Częstochowa?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stal Mielec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for Stal Mielec, 80% for Raków Częstochowa — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 40% for Stal Mielec and 80% for Raków Częstochowa. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stal Mielec home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stal Mielec play Raków Częstochowa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Stal Mielec's games and 80% of Raków Częstochowa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stal Mielec vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Stal Mielec's matches and 80% of Raków Częstochowa's.
Do Stal Mielec and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
Stal Mielec have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Raków Częstochowa run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Stal Mielec.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Raków Częstochowa beat Stal Mielec 0-3 at Stadion MOSiR, Regular Season - 8, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stal Mielec 1.33 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.22 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Stal Mielec fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Raków Częstochowa outscored their 1.22 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stal Mielec attack 0.95 / defence 1.13 against Raków Częstochowa attack 0.98 / defence 1.23, drawn from 7/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stal Mielec 37% | Draw 31% | Raków Częstochowa 32%, with Stal Mielec to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Raków Częstochowa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stal Mielec 40%, Raków Częstochowa 80%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stal Mielec's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stal Mielec 1.40 PPG, Raków Częstochowa 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Raków Częstochowa win broke the near-deadlock. Stal Mielec managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Raków Częstochowa scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.