Stal Mielec 2-2 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Radomiak Radom at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 33 as Stal Mielec welcome Radomiak Radom to Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato. Kick-off is set for Friday 16 May 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stal Mielec stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Stal Mielec at Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Radomiak Radom have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Radomiak Radom have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Radomiak Radom's 1.60 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Stal Mielec's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Stal Mielec register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Radomiak Radom in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Stal Mielec, 2 for Radomiak Radom and 2 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Nov 2024, ended 2–1 with Stal Mielec winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Stal Mielec trading profile (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Radomiak Radom trading profile (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stal Mielec 58% versus Radomiak Radom 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stal Mielec 53% | Radomiak Radom 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stal Mielec 1.13 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stal Mielec attack 0.718 / defence 1.089 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.987 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.531 / away 1.260. Stal Mielec's attack strength of 0.718 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 66 Stal Mielec games / 66 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stal Mielec 31% | Draw 27% | Radomiak Radom 42%. Fair-value odds: Stal Mielec 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | Radomiak Radom 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Radomiak Radom as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Stal Mielec 60% | Radomiak Radom 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato • Kick-off: Friday 16 May 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stal Mielec 31% | Draw 27% | Radomiak Radom 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Stal Mielec 1.13 / Radomiak Radom 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Stal Mielec attack 0.718 / def 1.089 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.987 / def 1.028 | league avg home 1.531 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Stal Mielec xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Radomiak Radom xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 16 May 2025 at Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato.
What was the final score in Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom?
Stal Mielec 2 - 2 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato.
What competition is Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Stal Mielec a 31% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Stal Mielec and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Radomiak Radom?
Record (7 meetings): Stal Mielec 3W | Draws 2 | Radomiak Radom 2W.
What form are Stal Mielec and Radomiak Radom in?
Stal Mielec (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Stal Mielec's attack at 0.72x the league average against Radomiak Radom's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Radomiak Radom's attack versus Stal Mielec's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
31%
3.20
27%
3.72
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Stal Mielec xG
Total xG
2.49
1.35
Radomiak Radom xG
3.20
31%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
8%
12.41
14%
7.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 11.3 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.2 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Stal Mielec and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Stal Mielec and 1.35 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stal Mielec's recent record stands at 18W 18D 30L from 66 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-W in the last five.
Radomiak Radom, meanwhile, have gone 21W 15D 30L across 66 games — 1.18 PPG, with L-D-D-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stal Mielec on 1.09 PPG, Radomiak Radom on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Stal Mielec have managed 13W 11D 9L from 33 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.09 PPG overall — Stal Mielec are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Radomiak Radom's away record stands at 11W 5D 17L across 33 trips, a 1.15 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Stal Mielec are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.29 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stal Mielec
Current Season
Radomiak Radom
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stal Mielec and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Stal Mielec have gone 18W 18D 30L in their last 66 games (1.09 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 21W 15D 30L in their last 66 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stal Mielec at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Stal Mielec's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stal Mielec at home: 1.52 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Stal Mielec's record when hosting Radomiak Radom specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Stal Mielec
3
Draws
2
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Radomiak Radom?
From 8 meetings on record, Stal Mielec have won 3, Radomiak Radom have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stal Mielec and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2025, when Stal Mielec 2-2 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Stal Mielec and Radomiak Radom?
Stal Mielec have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stal Mielec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stal Mielec 52%, Radomiak Radom 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Stal Mielec) and 61% (Radomiak Radom).
On the defensive side: Stal Mielec keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Stal Mielec have failed to score in 33% of games; Radomiak Radom in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stal Mielec home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stal Mielec play Radomiak Radom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Stal Mielec's recent matches and 46% of Radomiak Radom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Stal Mielec's recent games and 61% of Radomiak Radom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stal Mielec and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Stal Mielec have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stal Mielec and Radomiak Radom share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stal Mielec and Radomiak Radom finished level at 2-2 at Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato, Regular Season - 33, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stal Mielec 1.13 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.35 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Stal Mielec beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stal Mielec attack 0.72 / defence 1.09 against Radomiak Radom attack 0.99 / defence 1.03, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stal Mielec 31% | Draw 27% | Radomiak Radom 42%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stal Mielec 53%, Radomiak Radom 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stal Mielec's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stal Mielec 1.09 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Stal Mielec (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.