Stal Mielec 2-0 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stal Mielec at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 6 as Stal Mielec welcome Radomiak Radom to Stadion Miejski w Mielcu. Kick-off is set for Friday 25 August 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stal Mielec stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Stal Mielec have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Stal Mielec at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Radomiak Radom have recorded 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Radomiak Radom have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Radomiak Radom have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Radomiak Radom's 1.80 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Stal Mielec's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Stal Mielec, 1 for Radomiak Radom and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 5 Feb 2023, ended 0–1 with Radomiak Radom winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Stal Mielec trading profile (39 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 45% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Radomiak Radom trading profile (39 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stal Mielec 36% versus Radomiak Radom 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Stal Mielec 31% | Radomiak Radom 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stal Mielec 1.19 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stal Mielec attack 1.013 / defence 0.966 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.104 / defence 0.833. League average goals — home 1.414 / away 0.931. Data: 39 Stal Mielec games / 39 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stal Mielec 41% | Draw 29% | Radomiak Radom 30%. Fair-value odds: Stal Mielec 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Radomiak Radom 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Stal Mielec as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Radomiak Radom (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stal Mielec offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Stal Mielec 50% | Radomiak Radom 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadion Miejski w Mielcu • Kick-off: Friday 25 Aug 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stal Mielec 41% | Draw 29% | Radomiak Radom 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Stal Mielec 1.19 / Radomiak Radom 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Stal Mielec attack 1.013 / def 0.966 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.104 / def 0.833 | league avg home 1.414 / away 0.931 • Poisson stance: Stal Mielec (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Stal Mielec xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Radomiak Radom xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 25 August 2023 at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu.
What was the final score in Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom?
Stal Mielec 2 - 0 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu.
What competition is Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Stal Mielec a 41% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Stal Mielec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Stal Mielec and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Radomiak Radom?
Record (4 meetings): Stal Mielec 1W | Draws 2 | Radomiak Radom 1W.
What form are Stal Mielec and Radomiak Radom in?
Stal Mielec (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Stal Mielec's attack at 1.01x the league average against Radomiak Radom's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Radomiak Radom's attack versus Stal Mielec's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stal Mielec Win
41%
2.47
29%
3.44
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Stal Mielec xG
Total xG
2.19
0.99
Radomiak Radom xG
2.47
41%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
15%
6.66
9%
10.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 11.2 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.3 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Stal Mielec and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Stal Mielec and 0.99 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stal Mielec's recent record stands at 12W 12D 15L from 39 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Stal Mielec, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Radomiak Radom, meanwhile, have gone 15W 8D 16L across 39 games — 1.36 PPG, with W-L-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stal Mielec on 1.23 PPG, Radomiak Radom on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Stal Mielec have managed 7W 9D 4L from 20 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Radomiak Radom's away record stands at 9W 4D 7L across 20 trips, a 1.55 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Stal Mielec are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.05 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stal Mielec
Early Season
Radomiak Radom
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stal Mielec and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Stal Mielec have gone 12W 12D 15L in their last 39 games (1.23 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 15W 8D 16L in their last 39 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stal Mielec at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Radomiak Radom's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stal Mielec at home: 1.50 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Stal Mielec or Radomiak Radom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stal Mielec have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Radomiak Radom in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Stal Mielec's record when hosting Radomiak Radom specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Stal Mielec
3
Draws
2
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Radomiak Radom?
From 8 meetings on record, Stal Mielec have won 3, Radomiak Radom have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stal Mielec and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2025, when Stal Mielec 2-2 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Stal Mielec and Radomiak Radom?
Stal Mielec have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stal Mielec see a goal before the break in 45% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stal Mielec 40%, Radomiak Radom 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Stal Mielec) and 45% (Radomiak Radom).
On the defensive side: Stal Mielec keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Stal Mielec have failed to score in 40% of games; Radomiak Radom in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stal Mielec home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stal Mielec play Radomiak Radom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Stal Mielec's recent matches and 40% of Radomiak Radom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Stal Mielec's recent games and 45% of Radomiak Radom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stal Mielec and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Stal Mielec have had a goal before half-time in 45% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stal Mielec cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Radomiak Radom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stal Mielec beat Radomiak Radom 2-0 at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu, Regular Season - 6, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stal Mielec 1.19 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.99 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Stal Mielec beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Radomiak Radom landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stal Mielec attack 1.01 / defence 0.97 against Radomiak Radom attack 1.10 / defence 0.83, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stal Mielec 41% | Draw 29% | Radomiak Radom 30%, with Stal Mielec to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stal Mielec 31%, Radomiak Radom 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stal Mielec's trading profile (39 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (39 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stal Mielec 1.23 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stal Mielec win broke the near-deadlock. Stal Mielec (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.