Stal Mielec 0-0 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pogon Szczecin at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stal Mielec vs Pogon Szczecin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Pogon Szczecin travel to Stadion Miejski w Mielcu to take on Stal Mielec. The game is scheduled for Friday 17 May 2024, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stal Mielec stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Stal Mielec at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Stal Mielec are significantly better at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Pogon Szczecin have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Pogon Szczecin's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Stal Mielec 1.00 PPG, Pogon Szczecin 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Stal Mielec, 3 for Pogon Szczecin and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2023, ended 3–2 with Stal Mielec winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Stal Mielec in-play tendencies (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Pogon Szczecin in-play tendencies (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stal Mielec 44% versus Pogon Szczecin 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stal Mielec 41% | Pogon Szczecin 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stal Mielec 1.17 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stal Mielec attack 0.905 / defence 0.941 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.155 / defence 0.853. League average goals — home 1.512 / away 1.157. Data: 66 Stal Mielec games / 66 Pogon Szczecin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stal Mielec 32% | Draw 31% | Pogon Szczecin 37%. Fair-value odds: Stal Mielec 3.12 | Draw 3.23 | Pogon Szczecin 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pogon Szczecin are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Stal Mielec 50% | Pogon Szczecin 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stal Mielec vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadion Miejski w Mielcu • Kick-off: Friday 17 May 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stal Mielec 32% | Draw 31% | Pogon Szczecin 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Stal Mielec 1.17 / Pogon Szczecin 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Stal Mielec attack 0.905 / def 0.941 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.155 / def 0.853 | league avg home 1.512 / away 1.157 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Stal Mielec xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Pogon Szczecin xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stal Mielec vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Stal Mielec vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 17 May 2024 at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu.
What was the final score in Stal Mielec vs Pogon Szczecin?
Stal Mielec 0 - 0 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Stal Mielec vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu.
What competition is Stal Mielec vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Stal Mielec vs Pogon Szczecin is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Stal Mielec vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Stal Mielec a 32% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stal Mielec vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Stal Mielec and Pogon Szczecin will score (BTTS).
Will Stal Mielec vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Pogon Szczecin?
Record (5 meetings): Stal Mielec 2W | Draws 0 | Pogon Szczecin 3W.
What form are Stal Mielec and Pogon Szczecin in?
Stal Mielec (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Stal Mielec's attack rating (0.91) and Pogon Szczecin's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pogon Szczecin's attack versus Stal Mielec's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
32%
3.08
31%
3.26
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Stal Mielec xG
Total xG
2.42
1.26
Pogon Szczecin xG
3.08
32%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
28%
3.51
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
9%
10.83
11%
8.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 11.1 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.0 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stal Mielec vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Stal Mielec and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Stal Mielec and 1.26 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Stal Mielec vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stal Mielec come into this having played 66 games, going 22W 19D 25L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-D.
On the other side, Pogon Szczecin sit at 1.68 PPG from 66 outings (32W 15D 19L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stal Mielec on 1.29 PPG, Pogon Szczecin on 1.68. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Stal Mielec's home form reads 14W 12D 7L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.64 PPG return.
Away from home, Pogon Szczecin have taken 1.55 points per game from 33 outings (14W 9D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
Stal Mielec are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.74 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stal Mielec
Current Season
Pogon Szczecin
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stal Mielec and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Stal Mielec have gone 22W 19D 25L in their last 66 games (1.29 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 32W 15D 19L in their last 66 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stal Mielec at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Stal Mielec's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stal Mielec at home: 1.64 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Stal Mielec or Pogon Szczecin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stal Mielec have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Pogon Szczecin in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Pogon Szczecin have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Aug 2021, when Pogon Szczecin won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stal Mielec's record when hosting Pogon Szczecin specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Stal Mielec
1
Draws
5
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Pogon Szczecin?
From 8 meetings on record, Stal Mielec have won 2, Pogon Szczecin have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stal Mielec and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2025, when Stal Mielec 1-2 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Stal Mielec and Pogon Szczecin?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stal Mielec see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Pogon Szczecin see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stal Mielec 46%, Pogon Szczecin 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Stal Mielec) and 48% (Pogon Szczecin).
On the defensive side: Stal Mielec keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Pogon Szczecin in 30%; Stal Mielec have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stal Mielec home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stal Mielec play Pogon Szczecin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Stal Mielec's recent matches and 52% of Pogon Szczecin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stal Mielec vs Pogon Szczecin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Stal Mielec's recent games and 48% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Stal Mielec's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu, Regular Season - 33, as Stal Mielec and Pogon Szczecin drew 0-0 in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stal Mielec 1.17 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.26 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Stal Mielec fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Pogon Szczecin landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stal Mielec attack 0.91 / defence 0.94 against Pogon Szczecin attack 1.16 / defence 0.85, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stal Mielec 32% | Draw 31% | Pogon Szczecin 37%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stal Mielec 41%, Pogon Szczecin 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stal Mielec's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stal Mielec 1.29 PPG, Pogon Szczecin 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Stal Mielec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.