Stal Mielec 2-1 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Legia Warszawa at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stal Mielec vs Legia Warszawa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Legia Warszawa make the trip to Stadion Miejski w Mielcu to face Stal Mielec in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Saturday 30 April 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Stal Mielec's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stal Mielec have posted 3W 3D 4L at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Stal Mielec are significantly better at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu than their overall form suggests.
Legia Warszawa have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Legia Warszawa's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Legia Warszawa arrive in superior form — a 1.30 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Stal Mielec have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Legia Warszawa in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Stal Mielec lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2021, ended 3–1 with Stal Mielec winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Stal Mielec half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Legia Warszawa half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stal Mielec 60% versus Legia Warszawa 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stal Mielec 47% | Legia Warszawa 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stal Mielec 0.96 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stal Mielec attack 0.794 / defence 1.197 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.771 / defence 1.157. League average goals — home 1.050 / away 1.212. Stal Mielec's attack strength of 0.794 is below the league average — the 0.96 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 30 Stal Mielec games / 30 Legia Warszawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stal Mielec 30% | Draw 31% | Legia Warszawa 38%. Fair-value odds: Stal Mielec 3.33 | Draw 3.23 | Legia Warszawa 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Legia Warszawa are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. This conflicts with form data: Stal Mielec 60% | Legia Warszawa 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stal Mielec vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadion Miejski w Mielcu • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Apr 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stal Mielec 30% | Draw 31% | Legia Warszawa 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Stal Mielec 0.96 / Legia Warszawa 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Stal Mielec attack 0.794 / def 1.197 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.771 / def 1.157 | league avg home 1.050 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Stal Mielec xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Legia Warszawa xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stal Mielec vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Stal Mielec vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 30 April 2022 at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu.
What was the final score in Stal Mielec vs Legia Warszawa?
Stal Mielec 2 - 1 Legia Warszawa.
Where is Stal Mielec vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu.
What competition is Stal Mielec vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Stal Mielec vs Legia Warszawa is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Stal Mielec vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Stal Mielec a 30% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 38% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stal Mielec vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Stal Mielec and Legia Warszawa will score (BTTS).
Will Stal Mielec vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Legia Warszawa?
Record (1 meetings): Stal Mielec 1W | Draws 0 | Legia Warszawa 0W.
What form are Stal Mielec and Legia Warszawa in?
Stal Mielec (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Legia Warszawa (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Stal Mielec's attack rating (0.79) and Legia Warszawa's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 0.96 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Legia Warszawa's attack (0.77x) against Stal Mielec's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 0-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
30%
3.28
31%
3.22
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Stal Mielec xG
Total xG
2.08
1.12
Legia Warszawa xG
3.28
30%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
10%
10.04
15%
6.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 13.9 | 7.8 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stal Mielec vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Stal Mielec and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Stal Mielec and 1.12 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Stal Mielec vs Legia Warszawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 30 outings, Stal Mielec have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 8W 9D 13L record — D-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Legia Warszawa's form line: 11W 3D 16L from 30 games, 1.20 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Stal Mielec against 1.20 for Legia Warszawa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Stal Mielec have posted 1.40 PPG from 15 outings (6W 3D 6L).
On the road, Legia Warszawa have gone 3W 3D 9L from 15 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stal Mielec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Stal Mielec are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.17 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stal Mielec have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stal Mielec
Current Season
Legia Warszawa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stal Mielec and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Stal Mielec have gone 8W 9D 13L in their last 30 games (1.10 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 11W 3D 16L in their last 30 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stal Mielec at home or Legia Warszawa away?
Stal Mielec's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stal Mielec at home: 1.40 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stal Mielec have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Legia Warszawa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Stal Mielec
2
Draws
3
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Legia Warszawa?
From 8 meetings on record, Stal Mielec have won 3, Legia Warszawa have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stal Mielec and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2025, when Legia Warszawa 2-2 Stal Mielec.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stal Mielec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stal Mielec 47%, Legia Warszawa 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Stal Mielec) and 40% (Legia Warszawa).
On the defensive side: Stal Mielec have failed to score in 33% of games; Legia Warszawa in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stal Mielec home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stal Mielec play Legia Warszawa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Stal Mielec's recent matches and 53% of Legia Warszawa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stal Mielec vs Legia Warszawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Stal Mielec's recent games and 40% of Legia Warszawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stal Mielec and Legia Warszawa tend to score early?
Stal Mielec have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Legia Warszawa in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Stal Mielec defy the odds to beat Legia Warszawa 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stal Mielec beat Legia Warszawa 2-1 at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu, Regular Season - 31, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stal Mielec 0.96 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.12 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Stal Mielec beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stal Mielec attack 0.79 / defence 1.20 against Legia Warszawa attack 0.77 / defence 1.16, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stal Mielec 30% | Draw 31% | Legia Warszawa 38%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Stal Mielec win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stal Mielec 47%, Legia Warszawa 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stal Mielec's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stal Mielec 1.10 PPG, Legia Warszawa 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stal Mielec win broke the near-deadlock. Stal Mielec (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.