Stal Mielec 1-1 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Stal Mielec at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stal Mielec vs Jagiellonia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 24 as Stal Mielec welcome Jagiellonia to Stadion Miejski w Mielcu. Kick-off is set for Friday 4 March 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stal Mielec stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Stal Mielec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stal Mielec's home record at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Jagiellonia have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jagiellonia's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Stal Mielec 1.40 PPG, Jagiellonia 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Stal Mielec, 0 for Jagiellonia and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Stal Mielec in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Jagiellonia in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stal Mielec 52% versus Jagiellonia 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stal Mielec 44% | Jagiellonia 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stal Mielec 1.43 xG and Jagiellonia 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stal Mielec attack 0.910 / defence 1.222 | Jagiellonia attack 0.854 / defence 1.455. League average goals — home 1.082 / away 1.110. Jagiellonia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.455 — this is suppressing Stal Mielec's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Stal Mielec games / 23 Jagiellonia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stal Mielec 42% | Draw 29% | Jagiellonia 29%. Fair-value odds: Stal Mielec 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | Jagiellonia 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stal Mielec are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stal Mielec offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Stal Mielec 40% | Jagiellonia 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stal Mielec vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadion Miejski w Mielcu • Kick-off: Friday 4 Mar 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stal Mielec 42% | Draw 29% | Jagiellonia 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Stal Mielec 1.43 / Jagiellonia 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Stal Mielec attack 0.910 / def 1.222 | Jagiellonia attack 0.854 / def 1.455 | league avg home 1.082 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Stal Mielec (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Stal Mielec xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Jagiellonia xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stal Mielec vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Stal Mielec vs Jagiellonia kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 4 March 2022 at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu.
What was the final score in Stal Mielec vs Jagiellonia?
Stal Mielec 1 - 1 Jagiellonia.
Where is Stal Mielec vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu.
What competition is Stal Mielec vs Jagiellonia part of?
Stal Mielec vs Jagiellonia is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Stal Mielec vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Stal Mielec a 42% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Stal Mielec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stal Mielec vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Stal Mielec and Jagiellonia will score (BTTS).
Will Stal Mielec vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Jagiellonia?
Record (1 meetings): Stal Mielec 0W | Draws 1 | Jagiellonia 0W.
What form are Stal Mielec and Jagiellonia in?
Stal Mielec (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Jagiellonia (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Stal Mielec's attack at 0.91x the league average against Jagiellonia's defence at 1.46x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jagiellonia's attack versus Stal Mielec's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.1%), 0-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stal Mielec Win
42%
2.39
29%
3.43
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Stal Mielec xG
Total xG
2.59
1.16
Jagiellonia xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
24%
4.19
Win to Nil
13%
7.61
7%
14.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.4 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stal Mielec vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Stal Mielec and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Stal Mielec and 1.16 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Stal Mielec vs Jagiellonia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stal Mielec come into this having played 23 games, going 8W 7D 8L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-L. The sample for Stal Mielec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jagiellonia sit at 1.26 PPG from 23 outings (7W 8D 8L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stal Mielec on 1.35 PPG, Jagiellonia on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Stal Mielec's home form reads 6W 2D 3L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.82 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.35 PPG overall — Stal Mielec are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Jagiellonia have taken 1.00 points per game from 11 outings (3W 2D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stal Mielec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stal Mielec are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 1.22 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia in 65%.
Last 23 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stal Mielec
Blended
Jagiellonia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stal Mielec and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Stal Mielec have gone 8W 7D 8L in their last 23 games (1.35 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 7W 8D 8L in their last 23 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stal Mielec at home or Jagiellonia away?
Stal Mielec's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stal Mielec at home: 1.82 PPG; Jagiellonia away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Sep 2022, when Jagiellonia won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stal Mielec's record when hosting Jagiellonia specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Stal Mielec
3
Draws
3
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Jagiellonia?
From 8 meetings on record, Stal Mielec have won 2, Jagiellonia have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stal Mielec and Jagiellonia last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2025, when Stal Mielec 2-1 Jagiellonia.
Who has won more matches between Stal Mielec and Jagiellonia?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stal Mielec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stal Mielec 46%, Jagiellonia 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Stal Mielec and 73% for Jagiellonia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stal Mielec keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Stal Mielec have failed to score in 27% of games; Jagiellonia in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stal Mielec home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stal Mielec play Jagiellonia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Stal Mielec's recent matches and 64% of Jagiellonia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stal Mielec vs Jagiellonia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Stal Mielec's matches and 73% of Jagiellonia's.
Do Stal Mielec and Jagiellonia tend to score early?
Stal Mielec have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Jagiellonia in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stal Mielec and Jagiellonia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu, Regular Season - 24, as Stal Mielec and Jagiellonia drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stal Mielec 1.43 xG and Jagiellonia 1.16 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stal Mielec attack 0.91 / defence 1.22 against Jagiellonia attack 0.85 / defence 1.46, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stal Mielec 42% | Draw 29% | Jagiellonia 29%, with Stal Mielec to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stal Mielec 44%, Jagiellonia 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stal Mielec's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Jagiellonia's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stal Mielec 1.35 PPG, Jagiellonia 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.