Stal Mielec 2-0 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cracovia Krakow at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stal Mielec vs Cracovia Krakow encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 4 as Stal Mielec welcome Cracovia Krakow to Stadion Miejski w Mielcu. Kick-off is set for Friday 5 August 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Stal Mielec have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Stal Mielec have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Stal Mielec's home record at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cracovia Krakow stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Cracovia Krakow have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cracovia Krakow's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Cracovia Krakow's 2.00 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Stal Mielec's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Stal Mielec have won 0, Cracovia Krakow 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Apr 2022, ended 1–2 with Cracovia Krakow winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Stal Mielec trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Cracovia Krakow trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stal Mielec 62% versus Cracovia Krakow 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stal Mielec 49% | Cracovia Krakow 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stal Mielec 1.08 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stal Mielec attack 0.938 / defence 0.993 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.961 / defence 0.869. League average goals — home 1.319 / away 1.244. Data: 37 Stal Mielec games / 37 Cracovia Krakow games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Stal Mielec 32% | Draw 30% | Cracovia Krakow 38%. Fair-value odds: Stal Mielec 3.12 | Draw 3.33 | Cracovia Krakow 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cracovia Krakow at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Stal Mielec 70% | Cracovia Krakow 30%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (37 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stal Mielec vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadion Miejski w Mielcu • Kick-off: Friday 5 Aug 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stal Mielec 32% | Draw 30% | Cracovia Krakow 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG Stal Mielec 1.08 / Cracovia Krakow 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Stal Mielec attack 0.938 / def 0.993 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.961 / def 0.869 | league avg home 1.319 / away 1.244 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Stal Mielec xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Cracovia Krakow xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stal Mielec vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Stal Mielec vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 5 August 2022 at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu.
What was the final score in Stal Mielec vs Cracovia Krakow?
Stal Mielec 2 - 0 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Stal Mielec vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu.
What competition is Stal Mielec vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Stal Mielec vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Stal Mielec vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Stal Mielec a 32% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 38% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stal Mielec vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Stal Mielec and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Stal Mielec vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Cracovia Krakow?
Record (2 meetings): Stal Mielec 0W | Draws 1 | Cracovia Krakow 1W.
What form are Stal Mielec and Cracovia Krakow in?
Stal Mielec (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Stal Mielec's attack at 0.94x the league average against Cracovia Krakow's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cracovia Krakow's attack versus Stal Mielec's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (37/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
32%
3.12
30%
3.28
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Stal Mielec xG
Total xG
2.26
1.19
Cracovia Krakow xG
3.12
32%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
31%
3.28
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
10%
10.24
13%
7.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 12.3 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stal Mielec vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Stal Mielec and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Stal Mielec and 1.19 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Stal Mielec vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Stal Mielec's recent record stands at 10W 11D 16L from 37 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with D-L-W-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Stal Mielec, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cracovia Krakow, meanwhile, have gone 15W 10D 12L across 37 games — 1.49 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stal Mielec on 1.11 PPG, Cracovia Krakow on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Stal Mielec have managed 7W 5D 6L from 18 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cracovia Krakow's away record stands at 6W 5D 7L across 18 trips, a 1.28 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Stal Mielec are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.27 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stal Mielec have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Cracovia Krakow in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stal Mielec
Early Season
Cracovia Krakow
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stal Mielec and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Stal Mielec have gone 10W 11D 16L in their last 37 games (1.11 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 15W 10D 12L in their last 37 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stal Mielec at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Stal Mielec's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stal Mielec at home: 1.44 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Stal Mielec or Cracovia Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stal Mielec have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Cracovia Krakow in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stal Mielec and Cracovia Krakow runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Stal Mielec's record when hosting Cracovia Krakow specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Stal Mielec
5
Draws
2
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Cracovia Krakow?
From 8 meetings on record, Stal Mielec have won 1, Cracovia Krakow have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Stal Mielec and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2025, when Stal Mielec 1-1 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Stal Mielec and Cracovia Krakow?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stal Mielec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stal Mielec 56%, Cracovia Krakow 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Stal Mielec) and 39% (Cracovia Krakow).
On the defensive side: Stal Mielec have failed to score in 28% of games; Cracovia Krakow in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stal Mielec home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stal Mielec play Cracovia Krakow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Stal Mielec's recent matches and 44% of Cracovia Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stal Mielec vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Stal Mielec's recent games and 39% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stal Mielec and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Stal Mielec have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stal Mielec cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Cracovia Krakow.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stal Mielec beat Cracovia Krakow 2-0 at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu, Regular Season - 4, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stal Mielec 1.08 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.19 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Stal Mielec beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cracovia Krakow landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stal Mielec attack 0.94 / defence 0.99 against Cracovia Krakow attack 0.96 / defence 0.87, drawn from 37/37 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Stal Mielec 32% | Draw 30% | Cracovia Krakow 38%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Stal Mielec win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stal Mielec 49%, Cracovia Krakow 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stal Mielec's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stal Mielec 1.11 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stal Mielec win broke the near-deadlock. Stal Mielec (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.