Slask Wroclaw 1-1 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slask Wroclaw vs Pogon Szczecin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Pogon Szczecin travel to Tarczyński Arena to take on Slask Wroclaw. The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 May 2022, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Slask Wroclaw stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Slask Wroclaw's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 games at Tarczyński Arena this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Pogon Szczecin have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Pogon Szczecin away from home this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. Pogon Szczecin's 1.90 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Slask Wroclaw's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Slask Wroclaw, 1 for Pogon Szczecin and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2021, ended 1–2 with Pogon Szczecin winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Slask Wroclaw in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Pogon Szczecin in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Slask Wroclaw 64% and Pogon Szczecin 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slask Wroclaw 52% | Pogon Szczecin 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slask Wroclaw 0.60 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slask Wroclaw attack 0.621 / defence 1.340 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.115 / defence 0.919. League average goals — home 1.053 / away 1.270. Slask Wroclaw's attack strength of 0.621 is below the league average — the 0.60 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 31 Slask Wroclaw games / 31 Pogon Szczecin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 11% | Draw 21% | Pogon Szczecin 68%. Fair-value odds: Slask Wroclaw 9.09 | Draw 4.76 | Pogon Szczecin 1.47. The model has a clear lean to Pogon Szczecin (68%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pogon Szczecin at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Slask Wroclaw 50% | Pogon Szczecin 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slask Wroclaw vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Tarczyński Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 7 May 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 11% | Draw 21% | Pogon Szczecin 68% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 39% | xG Slask Wroclaw 0.60 / Pogon Szczecin 1.90 • Poisson strength factors: Slask Wroclaw attack 0.621 / def 1.340 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.115 / def 0.919 | league avg home 1.053 / away 1.270 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.60
Slask Wroclaw xG
Expected Goals
1.90
Pogon Szczecin xG
39%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slask Wroclaw vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Slask Wroclaw vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 7 May 2022 at Tarczyński Arena.
What was the final score in Slask Wroclaw vs Pogon Szczecin?
Slask Wroclaw 1 - 1 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Slask Wroclaw vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Tarczyński Arena.
What competition is Slask Wroclaw vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Slask Wroclaw vs Pogon Szczecin is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Slask Wroclaw vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Slask Wroclaw a 11% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 68% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slask Wroclaw vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Slask Wroclaw and Pogon Szczecin will score (BTTS).
Will Slask Wroclaw vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slask Wroclaw and Pogon Szczecin?
Record (1 meetings): Slask Wroclaw 0W | Draws 0 | Pogon Szczecin 1W.
What form are Slask Wroclaw and Pogon Szczecin in?
Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-L-D. Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Slask Wroclaw's attack rating (0.62) and Pogon Szczecin's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 0.60 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pogon Szczecin's attack versus Slask Wroclaw's defence, projects 1.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (14.4%), 1-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
11%
9.29
21%
4.76
68%
1.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
14.8%
Away win
0 – 3
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.60
Slask Wroclaw xG
Total xG
2.50
1.90
Pogon Szczecin xG
9.29
11%
Home win
4.76
21%
Draw
1.47
68%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
15%
6.67
55%
1.82
Win to Nil
2%
61.95
37%
2.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 15.6 | 14.8 | 9.4 | 4.4 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.4 | 8.9 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slask Wroclaw vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Slask Wroclaw and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 0.60 expected goals for Slask Wroclaw and 1.90 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Slask Wroclaw vs Pogon Szczecin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Slask Wroclaw come into this having played 31 games, going 7W 12D 12L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-D.
On the other side, Pogon Szczecin sit at 2.00 PPG from 31 outings (18W 8D 5L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five.
Pogon Szczecin carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.94 PPG clear of Slask Wroclaw — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Slask Wroclaw's home form reads 3W 7D 5L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Pogon Szczecin have taken 1.80 points per game from 15 outings (7W 6D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Slask Wroclaw are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.94 scored and 0.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Slask Wroclaw have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Pogon Szczecin in 61%.
Last 31 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slask Wroclaw
Current Season
Pogon Szczecin
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slask Wroclaw and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Slask Wroclaw have gone 7W 12D 12L in their last 31 games (1.06 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 18W 8D 5L in their last 31 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slask Wroclaw at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Pogon Szczecin's away record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slask Wroclaw at home: 1.07 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 1.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Slask Wroclaw's record when hosting Pogon Szczecin specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Slask Wroclaw
2
Draws
3
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slask Wroclaw and Pogon Szczecin?
From 8 meetings on record, Slask Wroclaw have won 3, Pogon Szczecin have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Slask Wroclaw and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2025, when Slask Wroclaw 1-1 Pogon Szczecin.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Slask Wroclaw see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slask Wroclaw 53%, Pogon Szczecin 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Slask Wroclaw) and 27% (Pogon Szczecin).
On the defensive side: Pogon Szczecin in 40%; Slask Wroclaw have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slask Wroclaw home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slask Wroclaw play Pogon Szczecin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Slask Wroclaw's recent matches and 47% of Pogon Szczecin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slask Wroclaw vs Pogon Szczecin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Slask Wroclaw's recent games and 27% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slask Wroclaw and Pogon Szczecin tend to score early?
Slask Wroclaw have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Pogon Szczecin in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slask Wroclaw and Pogon Szczecin share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tarczyński Arena, Regular Season - 32, as Slask Wroclaw and Pogon Szczecin drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slask Wroclaw 0.60 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.90 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Pogon Szczecin landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slask Wroclaw attack 0.62 / defence 1.34 against Pogon Szczecin attack 1.11 / defence 0.92, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slask Wroclaw 11% | Draw 21% | Pogon Szczecin 68%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slask Wroclaw 52%, Pogon Szczecin 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.