Raków Częstochowa 1-1 Zaglebie Lubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Raków Częstochowa at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Zaglebie Lubin make the trip to Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków to face Raków Częstochowa in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 34. The match kicks off on Saturday 27 May 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Raków Częstochowa (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Raków Częstochowa at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków this season: 9W 0D 1L from 10 home games — 2.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Raków Częstochowa are significantly better at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków than their overall form suggests.
Zaglebie Lubin's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Zaglebie Lubin away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.90 PPG for Raków Częstochowa against 1.50 for Zaglebie Lubin. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Raków Częstochowa 2W, Zaglebie Lubin 1W, 0D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2022, ended 2–1 with Raków Częstochowa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Raków Częstochowa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Zaglebie Lubin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 43% versus Zaglebie Lubin 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 52% | Zaglebie Lubin 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.87 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.435 / defence 0.823 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.266 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.057. Raków Częstochowa carry an above-average attack strength of 1.435 — their λ of 1.87 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Zaglebie Lubin have an above-average attack strength of 1.266 — the away xG of 1.10 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 67 Raków Częstochowa games / 67 Zaglebie Lubin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 55% | Draw 24% | Zaglebie Lubin 21%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Zaglebie Lubin 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Raków Częstochowa (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Raków Częstochowa at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Raków Częstochowa 30% | Zaglebie Lubin 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków • Kick-off: Saturday 27 May 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 55% | Draw 24% | Zaglebie Lubin 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 57% | xG Raków Częstochowa 1.87 / Zaglebie Lubin 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.435 / def 0.823 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.266 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Zaglebie Lubin xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 27 May 2023 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What was the final score in Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Raków Częstochowa 1 - 1 Zaglebie Lubin.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
The match is being played at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 55% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and Zaglebie Lubin will score (BTTS).
Will Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Zaglebie Lubin?
Record (3 meetings): Raków Częstochowa 2W | Draws 0 | Zaglebie Lubin 1W.
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Zaglebie Lubin in?
Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Raków Częstochowa's attack rating (1.44) and Zaglebie Lubin's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.87 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Zaglebie Lubin's attack (1.27x) against Raków Częstochowa's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
55%
1.83
24%
4.18
21%
4.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
2.97
1.10
Zaglebie Lubin xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
4.66
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
15%
6.48
Win to Nil
18%
5.51
3%
30.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 10.6 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 1.10 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Raków Częstochowa's recent record stands at 43W 14D 10L from 67 games, a 2.13 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-W in the last five.
Zaglebie Lubin, meanwhile, have gone 23W 13D 31L across 67 games — 1.22 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Raków Częstochowa by 0.91 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Zaglebie Lubin heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Raków Częstochowa have managed 24W 7D 2L from 33 games — 2.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zaglebie Lubin's away record stands at 12W 5D 16L across 33 trips, a 1.24 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; Zaglebie Lubin are on 1.15 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Current Season
Zaglebie Lubin
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Zaglebie Lubin in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 43W 14D 10L in their last 67 games (2.13 PPG), while Zaglebie Lubin have gone 23W 13D 31L in their last 67 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Raków Częstochowa at home or Zaglebie Lubin away?
Raków Częstochowa's home record (2.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Raków Częstochowa at home: 2.39 PPG; Zaglebie Lubin away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Raków Częstochowa or Zaglebie Lubin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Zaglebie Lubin in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Raków Częstochowa won 5-0 on 5 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Raków Częstochowa have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Zaglebie Lubin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Raków Częstochowa
2
Draws
3
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Zaglebie Lubin?
From 10 meetings on record, Raków Częstochowa have won 5, Zaglebie Lubin have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Zaglebie Lubin 0-0 Raków Częstochowa.
Who has won more matches between Raków Częstochowa and Zaglebie Lubin?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Raków Częstochowa 42%, Zaglebie Lubin 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Raków Częstochowa) and 64% (Zaglebie Lubin). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Zaglebie Lubin in 30%; Zaglebie Lubin in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Raków Częstochowa play Zaglebie Lubin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Raków Częstochowa's recent matches and 39% of Zaglebie Lubin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Raków Częstochowa's matches and 64% of Zaglebie Lubin's.
Do Raków Częstochowa and Zaglebie Lubin tend to score early?
Raków Częstochowa have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Zaglebie Lubin in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Raków Częstochowa and Zaglebie Lubin share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków, Regular Season - 34, as Raków Częstochowa and Zaglebie Lubin drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.87 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.10 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Raków Częstochowa fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 1.44 / defence 0.82 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.27 / defence 0.96, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 55% | Draw 24% | Zaglebie Lubin 21%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 52%, Zaglebie Lubin 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.27 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.