Raków Częstochowa 1-2 Wisla Plock – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Raków Częstochowa at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Raków Częstochowa vs Wisla Plock fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Miejski Stadion Pilkarski Rakow plays host to Raków Częstochowa versus Wisla Plock in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Sunday 26 July 2026 at 12:45 UTC.
Form
Raków Częstochowa (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Raków Częstochowa haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Raków Częstochowa's home record at Miejski Stadion Pilkarski Rakow: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Miejski Stadion Pilkarski Rakow. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Wisla Plock's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Wisla Plock haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Wisla Plock have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Raków Częstochowa. A 0.50 PPG lead over Wisla Plock (1.80 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Raków Częstochowa 3W, Wisla Plock 2W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 1 Feb 2026, ended 1–2 with Wisla Plock winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Raków Częstochowa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Wisla Plock goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 56% versus Wisla Plock 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 47% | Wisla Plock 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.56 xG and Wisla Plock 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.025 / defence 0.881 | Wisla Plock attack 1.004 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.160. Data: 34 Raków Częstochowa games / 34 Wisla Plock games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 49% | Draw 27% | Wisla Plock 24%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Wisla Plock 4.17. Raków Częstochowa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Raków Częstochowa at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Raków Częstochowa 20% | Wisla Plock 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs Wisla Plock | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Miejski Stadion Pilkarski Rakow • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jul 2026, 12:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 49% | Draw 27% | Wisla Plock 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Raków Częstochowa 1.56 / Wisla Plock 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.025 / def 0.881 | Wisla Plock attack 1.004 / def 0.995 | league avg home 1.527 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Wisla Plock xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs Wisla Plock kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs Wisla Plock kicked off at 12:45 on Sunday 26 July 2026 at Miejski Stadion Pilkarski Rakow.
What was the final score in Raków Częstochowa vs Wisla Plock?
Raków Częstochowa 1 - 2 Wisla Plock.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs Wisla Plock being played?
The match is being played at Miejski Stadion Pilkarski Rakow.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs Wisla Plock part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs Wisla Plock is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs Wisla Plock?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 49% chance of winning, Wisla Plock a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Wisla Plock?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and Wisla Plock will score (BTTS).
Will Raków Częstochowa vs Wisla Plock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Wisla Plock?
Record (6 meetings): Raków Częstochowa 3W | Draws 1 | Wisla Plock 2W.
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Wisla Plock in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Raków Częstochowa's attack at 1.02x the league average against Wisla Plock's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Wisla Plock's attack (1.00x) against Raków Częstochowa's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
49%
2.05
27%
3.66
24%
4.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
2.58
1.03
Wisla Plock xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
4.16
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
21%
4.75
Win to Nil
17%
5.74
5%
19.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.1 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs Wisla Plock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and Wisla Plock expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 1.03 for Wisla Plock, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs Wisla Plock?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Raków Częstochowa's recent record stands at 16W 7D 11L from 34 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five. Raków Częstochowa haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Wisla Plock, meanwhile, have gone 12W 10D 12L across 34 games — 1.35 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five. Wisla Plock haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.62 PPG for Raków Częstochowa against 1.35 for Wisla Plock. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Raków Częstochowa have managed 8W 4D 5L from 17 games — 1.65 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wisla Plock's away record stands at 4W 7D 6L across 17 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Wisla Plock are on 1.00 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Pre-Season
Wisla Plock
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Wisla Plock in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 16W 7D 11L in their last 34 games (1.62 PPG), while Wisla Plock have gone 12W 10D 12L in their last 34 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Raków Częstochowa at home or Wisla Plock away?
Raków Częstochowa's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Raków Częstochowa at home: 1.65 PPG; Wisla Plock away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Wisla Plock go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Raków Częstochowa won 7-1 on 5 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Raków Częstochowa have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Wisla Plock — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Raków Częstochowa
1
Draws
3
Wisla Plock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Wisla Plock?
From 7 meetings on record, Raków Częstochowa have won 3, Wisla Plock have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and Wisla Plock last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Raków Częstochowa 1-2 Wisla Plock.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Raków Częstochowa 41%, Wisla Plock 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Raków Częstochowa) and 41% (Wisla Plock).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Wisla Plock in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / Wisla Plock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Raków Częstochowa play Wisla Plock?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 41% of Raków Częstochowa's games and 71% of Wisla Plock's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Raków Częstochowa vs Wisla Plock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Raków Częstochowa's recent games and 41% of Wisla Plock's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Raków Częstochowa and Wisla Plock tend to score early?
Raków Częstochowa have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Wisla Plock in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Wisla Plock defy the odds to beat Raków Częstochowa 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wisla Plock beat Raków Częstochowa 1-2 at Miejski Stadion Pilkarski Rakow, Regular Season - 1, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.56 xG and Wisla Plock 1.03 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Wisla Plock outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 1.02 / defence 0.88 against Wisla Plock attack 1.00 / defence 0.99, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 49% | Draw 27% | Wisla Plock 24%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Wisla Plock win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 47%, Wisla Plock 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Wisla Plock's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Raków Częstochowa 1.62 PPG, Wisla Plock 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wisla Plock win broke the near-deadlock. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wisla Plock (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.