Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Widzew Łódź at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 15 as Raków Częstochowa welcome Widzew Łódź to zondacrypto Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Raków Częstochowa have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Raków Częstochowa have posted 4W 0D 6L at zondacrypto Arena — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Raków Częstochowa are significantly better at zondacrypto Arena than their overall form suggests.
Widzew Łódź — All Games: 1W 6D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Widzew Łódź have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Raków Częstochowa 0.60 PPG, Widzew Łódź 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Raków Częstochowa have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 8 past contests while Widzew Łódź have managed just 0 wins.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The historical record gives Raków Częstochowa a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Raków Częstochowa in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Widzew Łódź in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 64% versus Widzew Łódź 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 58% | Widzew Łódź 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.38 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 0.994 / defence 1.495 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.926 / defence 0.899. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.332. Data: 45 Raków Częstochowa games / 45 Widzew Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 26% | Draw 29% | Widzew Łódź 45%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 3.85 | Draw 3.45 | Widzew Łódź 2.22. Widzew Łódź hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.38 / 1.84) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Widzew Łódź as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.22 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Raków Częstochowa 70% | Widzew Łódź 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: zondacrypto Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 26% | Draw 29% | Widzew Łódź 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 66% | xG Raków Częstochowa 1.38 / Widzew Łódź 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 0.994 / def 1.495 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.926 / def 0.899 | league avg home 1.539 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Widzew Łódź (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
1.84
Widzew Łódź xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 21 November 2026 at zondacrypto Arena.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at zondacrypto Arena.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 26% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 45% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Widzew Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and Widzew Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Widzew Łódź?
Record (8 meetings): Raków Częstochowa 5W | Draws 3 | Widzew Łódź 0W.
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Widzew Łódź in?
Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Widzew Łódź (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Raków Częstochowa's attack at 0.99x the league average against Widzew Łódź's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Widzew Łódź's attack versus Raków Częstochowa's defence, projects 1.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Widzew Łódź Win
26%
3.89
29%
3.47
45%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
3.22
1.84
Widzew Łódź xG
3.89
26%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.20
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.94
Clean Sheet
16%
6.32
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
4%
24.55
12%
8.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 7.4 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.1 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 7.0 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and Widzew Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 1.84 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 45 outings, Raków Częstochowa have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 18W 7D 20L record — W-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Widzew Łódź's form line: 13W 13D 19L from 45 games, 1.16 PPG, last five D-D-D-L-D. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Raków Częstochowa on 1.36 PPG, Widzew Łódź on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Raków Częstochowa have posted 1.41 PPG from 22 outings (9W 4D 9L).
On the road, Widzew Łódź have gone 4W 5D 13L from 22 away games — 0.77 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Widzew Łódź are on 1.22 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Raków Częstochowa have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
Widzew Łódź
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Widzew Łódź in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 18W 7D 20L in their last 45 games (1.36 PPG), while Widzew Łódź have gone 13W 13D 19L in their last 45 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Raków Częstochowa at home or Widzew Łódź away?
Raków Częstochowa's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Raków Częstochowa at home: 1.41 PPG; Widzew Łódź away: 0.77 PPG.
Have Raków Częstochowa or Widzew Łódź been keeping clean sheets recently?
Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Widzew Łódź in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Raków Częstochowa's record when hosting Widzew Łódź specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Raków Częstochowa
3
Draws
0
Widzew Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Widzew Łódź?
From 8 meetings on record, Raków Częstochowa have won 5, Widzew Łódź have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and Widzew Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Raków Częstochowa 1-1 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Raków Częstochowa and Widzew Łódź?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Widzew Łódź see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Raków Częstochowa 54%, Widzew Łódź 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Raków Częstochowa) and 46% (Widzew Łódź).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Widzew Łódź in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / Widzew Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Raków Częstochowa play Widzew Łódź?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Raków Częstochowa's recent matches and 50% of Widzew Łódź's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Raków Częstochowa's recent games and 46% of Widzew Łódź's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Raków Częstochowa and Widzew Łódź tend to score early?
Raków Częstochowa have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Widzew Łódź in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.