Raków Częstochowa 2-1 Widzew Łódź – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Raków Częstochowa (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Raków Częstochowa face Widzew Łódź.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 34 as Raków Częstochowa welcome Widzew Łódź to zondacrypto Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 24 May 2025 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Raków Częstochowa have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: L W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Raków Częstochowa have posted 6W 2D 2L at zondacrypto Arena — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Widzew Łódź — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Widzew Łódź have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Raków Częstochowa are in the better shape of the two on current Ekstraklasa data — 0.70 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Raków Częstochowa register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Widzew Łódź in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Raków Częstochowa have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 5 past contests while Widzew Łódź have managed just 0 wins.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2024, ended 3–2 with Raków Częstochowa winning.
The historical record gives Raków Częstochowa a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Raków Częstochowa in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Widzew Łódź in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 49% versus Widzew Łódź 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 42% | Widzew Łódź 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.72 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.093 / defence 0.925 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.877 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.568 / away 1.243. Data: 67 Raków Częstochowa games / 67 Widzew Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 54% | Draw 24% | Widzew Łódź 22%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 1.85 | Draw 4.17 | Widzew Łódź 4.55. Raków Częstochowa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Raków Częstochowa 70% | Widzew Łódź 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: zondacrypto Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 24 May 2025, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 54% | Draw 24% | Widzew Łódź 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 52% | xG Raków Częstochowa 1.72 / Widzew Łódź 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.093 / def 0.925 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.877 / def 1.002 | league avg home 1.568 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Widzew Łódź xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 24 May 2025 at zondacrypto Arena.
What was the final score in Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź?
Raków Częstochowa 2 - 1 Widzew Łódź.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at zondacrypto Arena.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 54% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 22% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and Widzew Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Widzew Łódź?
Record (5 meetings): Raków Częstochowa 3W | Draws 2 | Widzew Łódź 0W.
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Widzew Łódź in?
Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Widzew Łódź (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Raków Częstochowa's attack at 1.09x the league average against Widzew Łódź's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Widzew Łódź's attack versus Raków Częstochowa's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
54%
1.85
24%
4.15
22%
4.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
2.73
1.01
Widzew Łódź xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
4.55
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
18%
5.57
Win to Nil
20%
5.08
4%
25.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 11.3 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and Widzew Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 1.01 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 67 outings, Raków Częstochowa have picked up 1.76 PPG on a 33W 19D 15L record — L-W-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Widzew Łódź's form line: 24W 14D 29L from 67 games, 1.28 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-W.
Put side by side, Raków Częstochowa are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Widzew Łódź.
Venue Form
On home soil, Raków Częstochowa have posted 1.97 PPG from 33 outings (19W 8D 6L).
On the road, Widzew Łódź have gone 7W 11D 15L from 33 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Widzew Łódź are on 1.22 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Current Season
Widzew Łódź
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Widzew Łódź in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 33W 19D 15L in their last 67 games (1.76 PPG), while Widzew Łódź have gone 24W 14D 29L in their last 67 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Raków Częstochowa at home or Widzew Łódź away?
Raków Częstochowa's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Raków Częstochowa at home: 1.97 PPG; Widzew Łódź away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Raków Częstochowa or Widzew Łódź been keeping clean sheets recently?
Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Widzew Łódź in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Raków Częstochowa's record when hosting Widzew Łódź specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Raków Częstochowa
3
Draws
0
Widzew Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Widzew Łódź?
From 8 meetings on record, Raków Częstochowa have won 5, Widzew Łódź have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and Widzew Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Raków Częstochowa 1-1 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Raków Częstochowa and Widzew Łódź?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Raków Częstochowa 48%, Widzew Łódź 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Raków Częstochowa) and 54% (Widzew Łódź).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / Widzew Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Raków Częstochowa play Widzew Łódź?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Raków Częstochowa's games and 73% of Widzew Łódź's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Raków Częstochowa's recent games and 54% of Widzew Łódź's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Raków Częstochowa and Widzew Łódź tend to score early?
Raków Częstochowa have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Widzew Łódź in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Raków Częstochowa edge out Widzew Łódź 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Raków Częstochowa beat Widzew Łódź 2-1 at zondacrypto Arena, Regular Season - 34, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.72 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.01 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 1.09 / defence 0.93 against Widzew Łódź attack 0.88 / defence 1.00, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 54% | Draw 24% | Widzew Łódź 22%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 42%, Widzew Łódź 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.28. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.