Raków Częstochowa 2-1 Widzew Łódź – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Raków Częstochowa (54%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Raków Częstochowa face Widzew Łódź.

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Fixture Analysis

Raków Częstochowa welcome Widzew Łódź to zondacrypto Arena in Ekstraklasa (matchday 34). Kick-off is Saturday 24 May 2025 at 17:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Raków Częstochowa have gone 6W 2D 2L — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: L W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

In front of their own supporters, Raków Częstochowa have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Widzew Łódź — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

On the road, Widzew Łódź have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Raków Częstochowa are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.70 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Raków Częstochowa's games and 60% of Widzew Łódź's (from Raków Częstochowa's last 10 home games and Widzew Łódź's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

Raków Częstochowa hold a clear advantage across the 5 H2H matches in our data, with 3 wins compared to 0 for Widzew Łódź and 2 draws.

The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 30 Nov 2024, ended Raków Częstochowa 3–2 Widzew Łódź — a Raków Częstochowa win.

The head-to-head data gives Raków Częstochowa an edge — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.

Trading Patterns

Raków Częstochowa in-play and half-time data (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

Widzew Łódź in-play and half-time data (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 49% versus Widzew Łódź 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 42% | Widzew Łódź 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.72 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.093 / defence 0.925 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.877 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.568 / away 1.243. Data: built from Raków Częstochowa's last 67 games and Widzew Łódź's last 67.

Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 54% | Draw 24% | Widzew Łódź 22%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 1.85 | Draw 4.15 | Widzew Łódź 4.55. Raków Częstochowa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Raków Częstochowa's last 10 home games and Widzew Łódź's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Raków Częstochowa 70% (last 10 home games) | Widzew Łódź 60% (last 10 away games).

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