Raków Częstochowa 1-0 Piast Gliwice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Raków Częstochowa vs Piast Gliwice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Raków Częstochowa and Piast Gliwice meet at Stadion Raków in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Friday 10 December 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Raków Częstochowa have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Raków Częstochowa's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 0L across 6 games at Stadion Raków this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Raków.
Piast Gliwice (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Piast Gliwice have gone 2W 2D 3L from 7 away fixtures this term (1.14 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Raków Częstochowa's 1.80 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Piast Gliwice's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Raków Częstochowa lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 25 Jul 2021, ended 3–2 with Raków Częstochowa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Raków Częstochowa half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Piast Gliwice half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 56% versus Piast Gliwice 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 75% | Piast Gliwice 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.70 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.349 / defence 1.052 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.826 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.229 / away 1.191. Raków Częstochowa carry an above-average attack strength of 1.349 — their λ of 1.70 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 16 Raków Częstochowa games / 16 Piast Gliwice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 53% | Draw 24% | Piast Gliwice 23%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | Piast Gliwice 4.35. Raków Częstochowa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Raków Częstochowa are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Raków Częstochowa 50% | Piast Gliwice 29% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadion Raków • Kick-off: Friday 10 Dec 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 53% | Draw 24% | Piast Gliwice 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Raków Częstochowa 1.70 / Piast Gliwice 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.349 / def 1.052 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.826 / def 1.024 | league avg home 1.229 / away 1.191 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Piast Gliwice xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs Piast Gliwice kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 10 December 2021 at Stadion Raków.
What was the final score in Raków Częstochowa vs Piast Gliwice?
Raków Częstochowa 1 - 0 Piast Gliwice.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs Piast Gliwice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Raków.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs Piast Gliwice part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs Piast Gliwice is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 53% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and Piast Gliwice will score (BTTS).
Will Raków Częstochowa vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Piast Gliwice?
Record (1 meetings): Raków Częstochowa 1W | Draws 0 | Piast Gliwice 0W.
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Piast Gliwice in?
Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Piast Gliwice (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Raków Częstochowa's attacking strength (1.35x league average) is weighed against Piast Gliwice's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.70. Flip it around — Piast Gliwice's attack (0.83x) against Raków Częstochowa's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
53%
1.89
24%
4.16
23%
4.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
2.73
1.03
Piast Gliwice xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
4.34
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
36%
2.82
18%
5.46
Win to Nil
19%
5.32
4%
23.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.4 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 1.03 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs Piast Gliwice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 16 outings, Raków Częstochowa have picked up 1.81 PPG on a 8W 5D 3L record — D-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Piast Gliwice's form line: 6W 3D 7L from 16 games, 1.31 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-W. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Raków Częstochowa are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Piast Gliwice.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Raków Częstochowa have posted 2.00 PPG from 6 outings (3W 3D 0L).
On the road, Piast Gliwice have gone 1W 2D 3L from 6 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.31 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Piast Gliwice's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 1.44 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 16 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
Piast Gliwice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 8W 5D 3L in their last 16 games (1.81 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 6W 3D 7L in their last 16 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Raków Częstochowa at home or Piast Gliwice away?
Raków Częstochowa's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Raków Częstochowa at home: 2.00 PPG; Piast Gliwice away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Raków Częstochowa or Piast Gliwice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Piast Gliwice in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Raków Częstochowa won 0-3 on 8 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Raków Częstochowa have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Piast Gliwice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Raków Częstochowa
0
Draws
3
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Piast Gliwice?
From 10 meetings on record, Raków Częstochowa have won 7, Piast Gliwice have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Piast Gliwice 1-3 Raków Częstochowa.
Who has won more matches between Raków Częstochowa and Piast Gliwice?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Raków Częstochowa 50%, Piast Gliwice 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 83% (Raków Częstochowa) and 17% (Piast Gliwice).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Piast Gliwice in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Raków Częstochowa play Piast Gliwice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Raków Częstochowa's recent matches and 33% of Piast Gliwice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Raków Częstochowa vs Piast Gliwice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 83% of Raków Częstochowa's recent games and 17% of Piast Gliwice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Raków Częstochowa and Piast Gliwice tend to score early?
Raków Częstochowa have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Piast Gliwice in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Raków Częstochowa edge out Piast Gliwice 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Raków Częstochowa beat Piast Gliwice 1-0 at Stadion Raków, Regular Season - 18, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.70 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.03 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Piast Gliwice landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 1.35 / defence 1.05 against Piast Gliwice attack 0.83 / defence 1.02, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 53% | Draw 24% | Piast Gliwice 23%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 75%, Piast Gliwice 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (16 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (16 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.31. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.