Raków Częstochowa 4-0 Lechia Gdansk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa at 77% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Raków Częstochowa vs Lechia Gdansk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lechia Gdansk make the trip to Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków to face Raków Częstochowa in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Friday 28 April 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Raków Częstochowa's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Raków Częstochowa at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków this season: 10W 0D 0L from 10 home games — 3.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.30 — Raków Częstochowa are significantly better at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków than their overall form suggests.
Lechia Gdansk (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Lechia Gdansk away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Raków Częstochowa's 2.30 PPG return is 1.80 points per game ahead of Lechia Gdansk's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Raków Częstochowa, 1 for Lechia Gdansk and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Oct 2022, ended 3–0 with Raków Częstochowa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Raków Częstochowa — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Lechia Gdansk — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 44% versus Lechia Gdansk 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 52% | Lechia Gdansk 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 2.38 xG and Lechia Gdansk 0.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.542 / defence 0.740 | Lechia Gdansk attack 0.743 / defence 1.190. League average goals — home 1.299 / away 1.054. Raków Częstochowa carry an above-average attack strength of 1.542 — their λ of 2.38 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Raków Częstochowa's defence rating of 0.740 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 63 Raków Częstochowa games / 63 Lechia Gdansk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 77% | Draw 17% | Lechia Gdansk 6%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 1.30 | Draw 5.88 | Lechia Gdansk 16.67. The model has a clear lean to Raków Częstochowa (77%) — a 71pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Raków Częstochowa are the pick at 77% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Raków Częstochowa 30% | Lechia Gdansk 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs Lechia Gdansk | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków • Kick-off: Friday 28 Apr 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 77% | Draw 17% | Lechia Gdansk 6% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 41% | xG Raków Częstochowa 2.38 / Lechia Gdansk 0.58 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.542 / def 0.740 | Lechia Gdansk attack 0.743 / def 1.190 | league avg home 1.299 / away 1.054 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (77%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.38
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
0.58
Lechia Gdansk xG
41%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs Lechia Gdansk kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs Lechia Gdansk kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 28 April 2023 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What was the final score in Raków Częstochowa vs Lechia Gdansk?
Raków Częstochowa 4 - 0 Lechia Gdansk.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs Lechia Gdansk being played?
The match is being played at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs Lechia Gdansk part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs Lechia Gdansk is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 77% chance of winning, Lechia Gdansk a 6% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and Lechia Gdansk will score (BTTS).
Will Raków Częstochowa vs Lechia Gdansk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Lechia Gdansk?
Record (3 meetings): Raków Częstochowa 2W | Draws 0 | Lechia Gdansk 1W.
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Lechia Gdansk in?
Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. Lechia Gdansk (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Raków Częstochowa's attack rating (1.54) and Lechia Gdansk's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 2.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lechia Gdansk's attack (0.74x) against Raków Częstochowa's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 0.58.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 3-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
77%
1.30
17%
5.95
6%
15.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
3 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.38
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
2.96
0.58
Lechia Gdansk xG
1.30
77%
Home win
5.95
17%
Draw
15.67
6%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
56%
1.78
9%
10.85
Win to Nil
43%
2.32
1%
170.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 7.1 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.7 | 8.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 11.7 | 6.8 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and Lechia Gdansk expected to score?
The model projects 2.38 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 0.58 for Lechia Gdansk, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs Lechia Gdansk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 77%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Raków Częstochowa come into this having played 63 games, going 41W 14D 8L for 2.17 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-W.
On the other side, Lechia Gdansk sit at 1.32 PPG from 63 outings (23W 14D 26L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five.
Raków Częstochowa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.85 PPG clear of Lechia Gdansk — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Raków Częstochowa's home form reads 23W 7D 1L across 31 games on their own ground, a 2.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Lechia Gdansk have taken 0.87 points per game from 31 outings (7W 6D 18L). That's a step down from their 1.32 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lechia Gdansk's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; Lechia Gdansk are on 1.24 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Current Season
Lechia Gdansk
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Lechia Gdansk in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 41W 14D 8L in their last 63 games (2.17 PPG), while Lechia Gdansk have gone 23W 14D 26L in their last 63 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Raków Częstochowa at home or Lechia Gdansk away?
Raków Częstochowa's home record (2.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Raków Częstochowa at home: 2.45 PPG; Lechia Gdansk away: 0.87 PPG.
Have Raków Częstochowa or Lechia Gdansk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Lechia Gdansk in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Raków Częstochowa have taken the last 7 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Raków Częstochowa won 4-0 on 28 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Raków Częstochowa have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Lechia Gdansk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Raków Częstochowa
0
Draws
1
Lechia Gdansk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Lechia Gdansk?
From 8 meetings on record, Raków Częstochowa have won 7, Lechia Gdansk have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and Lechia Gdansk last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Lechia Gdansk 1-2 Raków Częstochowa.
Who has won more matches between Raków Częstochowa and Lechia Gdansk?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Lechia Gdansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Raków Częstochowa 45%, Lechia Gdansk 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Raków Częstochowa) and 55% (Lechia Gdansk).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches; Lechia Gdansk in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / Lechia Gdansk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Raków Częstochowa play Lechia Gdansk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Raków Częstochowa's recent matches and 48% of Lechia Gdansk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Raków Częstochowa vs Lechia Gdansk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Raków Częstochowa's recent games and 55% of Lechia Gdansk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Raków Częstochowa and Lechia Gdansk tend to score early?
Raków Częstochowa have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Lechia Gdansk in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Raków Częstochowa run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Lechia Gdansk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Raków Częstochowa beat Lechia Gdansk 4-0 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków, Regular Season - 30, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 2.38 xG and Lechia Gdansk 0.58 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Raków Częstochowa beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 1.54 / defence 0.74 against Lechia Gdansk attack 0.74 / defence 1.19, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 77% | Draw 17% | Lechia Gdansk 6%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 77%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 52%, Lechia Gdansk 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.32. That form edge translated into the three points. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.29 average — above their attacking norm. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.