Raków Częstochowa 3-0 Lechia Gdansk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Raków Częstochowa at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Raków Częstochowa vs Lechia Gdansk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lechia Gdansk make the trip to Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków to face Raków Częstochowa in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 34. The match kicks off on Saturday 21 May 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
Raków Częstochowa's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Raków Częstochowa at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Lechia Gdansk (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W D W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Lechia Gdansk away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.10 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Raków Częstochowa, 1 for Lechia Gdansk and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Dec 2021, ended 1–3 with Lechia Gdansk winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Raków Częstochowa — key trading statistics (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Lechia Gdansk — key trading statistics (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 52% versus Lechia Gdansk 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 54% | Lechia Gdansk 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.57 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.097 / defence 0.963 | Lechia Gdansk attack 0.864 / defence 1.325. League average goals — home 1.079 / away 1.257. Lechia Gdansk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.325 — this is suppressing Raków Częstochowa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Raków Częstochowa games / 33 Lechia Gdansk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 48% | Draw 27% | Lechia Gdansk 24%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Lechia Gdansk 4.17. Raków Częstochowa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Raków Częstochowa are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Raków Częstochowa 60% | Lechia Gdansk 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs Lechia Gdansk | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków • Kick-off: Saturday 21 May 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 48% | Draw 27% | Lechia Gdansk 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Raków Częstochowa 1.57 / Lechia Gdansk 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.097 / def 0.963 | Lechia Gdansk attack 0.864 / def 1.325 | league avg home 1.079 / away 1.257 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Lechia Gdansk xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs Lechia Gdansk kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs Lechia Gdansk kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 21 May 2022 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What was the final score in Raków Częstochowa vs Lechia Gdansk?
Raków Częstochowa 3 - 0 Lechia Gdansk.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs Lechia Gdansk being played?
The match is being played at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs Lechia Gdansk part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs Lechia Gdansk is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 48% chance of winning, Lechia Gdansk a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and Lechia Gdansk will score (BTTS).
Will Raków Częstochowa vs Lechia Gdansk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Lechia Gdansk?
Record (1 meetings): Raków Częstochowa 0W | Draws 0 | Lechia Gdansk 1W.
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Lechia Gdansk in?
Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Lechia Gdansk (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Raków Częstochowa's attack rating (1.10) and Lechia Gdansk's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lechia Gdansk's attack (0.86x) against Raków Częstochowa's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
48%
2.07
27%
3.65
24%
4.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
2.62
1.05
Lechia Gdansk xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
4.13
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
17%
5.88
5%
19.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.0 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and Lechia Gdansk expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 1.05 for Lechia Gdansk, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs Lechia Gdansk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Raków Częstochowa come into this having played 33 games, going 19W 9D 5L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-L.
On the other side, Lechia Gdansk sit at 1.73 PPG from 33 outings (16W 9D 8L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.00 PPG for Raków Częstochowa against 1.73 for Lechia Gdansk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Raków Częstochowa's home form reads 9W 6D 1L across 16 games on their own ground, a 2.06 PPG return.
Away from home, Lechia Gdansk have taken 1.06 points per game from 16 outings (4W 5D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.73 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lechia Gdansk's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Lechia Gdansk are on 1.58 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Lechia Gdansk in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Current Season
Lechia Gdansk
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Lechia Gdansk in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 19W 9D 5L in their last 33 games (2.00 PPG), while Lechia Gdansk have gone 16W 9D 8L in their last 33 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Raków Częstochowa at home or Lechia Gdansk away?
Raków Częstochowa's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Raków Częstochowa at home: 2.06 PPG; Lechia Gdansk away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Raków Częstochowa or Lechia Gdansk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Lechia Gdansk in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Raków Częstochowa have taken the last 7 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Raków Częstochowa won 4-0 on 28 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Raków Częstochowa have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Lechia Gdansk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Raków Częstochowa
0
Draws
1
Lechia Gdansk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Lechia Gdansk?
From 8 meetings on record, Raków Częstochowa have won 7, Lechia Gdansk have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and Lechia Gdansk last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Lechia Gdansk 1-2 Raków Częstochowa.
Who has won more matches between Raków Częstochowa and Lechia Gdansk?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Lechia Gdansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Raków Częstochowa 56%, Lechia Gdansk 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Raków Częstochowa) and 44% (Lechia Gdansk).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Lechia Gdansk in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / Lechia Gdansk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Raków Częstochowa play Lechia Gdansk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Raków Częstochowa's recent matches and 50% of Lechia Gdansk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Raków Częstochowa vs Lechia Gdansk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Raków Częstochowa's recent games and 44% of Lechia Gdansk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Raków Częstochowa and Lechia Gdansk tend to score early?
Raków Częstochowa have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Lechia Gdansk in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Raków Częstochowa run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Lechia Gdansk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Raków Częstochowa beat Lechia Gdansk 3-0 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków, Regular Season - 34, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.57 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.05 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Raków Częstochowa beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lechia Gdansk landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 1.10 / defence 0.96 against Lechia Gdansk attack 0.86 / defence 1.32, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 48% | Draw 27% | Lechia Gdansk 24%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 54%, Lechia Gdansk 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Raków Częstochowa 2.00 PPG, Lechia Gdansk 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Raków Częstochowa win broke the near-deadlock. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.