Raków Częstochowa 1-0 Korona Kielce – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Raków Częstochowa vs Korona Kielce encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 14 as Raków Częstochowa welcome Korona Kielce to Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 October 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Raków Częstochowa have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Raków Częstochowa's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 games at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
Korona Kielce — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Korona Kielce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Korona Kielce have posted 2W 2D 3L from 7 away outings — 1.14 PPG. Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Raków Częstochowa carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.30 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
Raków Częstochowa in-play and half-time data (13 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time.
Korona Kielce in-play and half-time data (13 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 23% versus Korona Kielce 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 54% | Korona Kielce 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 2.13 xG and Korona Kielce 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.307 / defence 0.733 | Korona Kielce attack 0.938 / defence 1.240. League average goals — home 1.315 / away 1.131. Raków Częstochowa carry an above-average attack strength of 1.307 — their λ of 2.13 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Korona Kielce bring a strong defensive rating of 1.240 — this is suppressing Raków Częstochowa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Raków Częstochowa's defence rating of 0.733 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 Raków Częstochowa games / 13 Korona Kielce games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 69% | Draw 19% | Korona Kielce 12%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 1.45 | Draw 5.26 | Korona Kielce 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Raków Częstochowa (69%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Raków Częstochowa at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Raków Częstochowa 40% | Korona Kielce 57%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs Korona Kielce | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Oct 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 69% | Draw 19% | Korona Kielce 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 48% | xG Raków Częstochowa 2.13 / Korona Kielce 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.307 / def 0.733 | Korona Kielce attack 0.938 / def 1.240 | league avg home 1.315 / away 1.131 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.13
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Korona Kielce xG
48%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs Korona Kielce kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs Korona Kielce kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 22 October 2022 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What was the final score in Raków Częstochowa vs Korona Kielce?
Raków Częstochowa 1 - 0 Korona Kielce.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs Korona Kielce being played?
The match is being played at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs Korona Kielce part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs Korona Kielce is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs Korona Kielce?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 69% chance of winning, Korona Kielce a 12% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Korona Kielce?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and Korona Kielce will score (BTTS).
Will Raków Częstochowa vs Korona Kielce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Korona Kielce?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Korona Kielce in?
Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Korona Kielce (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Raków Częstochowa's attack at 1.31x the league average against Korona Kielce's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 2.13 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Korona Kielce's attack versus Raków Częstochowa's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 1-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
69%
1.46
19%
5.24
12%
8.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.13
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
2.91
0.78
Korona Kielce xG
1.46
69%
Home win
5.24
19%
Draw
8.08
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
12%
8.41
Win to Nil
32%
3.17
1%
68.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.6 | 9.0 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.8 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs Korona Kielce?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and Korona Kielce expected to score?
The model projects 2.13 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 0.78 for Korona Kielce, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs Korona Kielce?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 13 outings, Raków Częstochowa have picked up 2.23 PPG on a 9W 2D 2L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Korona Kielce's form line: 3W 3D 7L from 13 games, 0.92 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-L. The sample for Korona Kielce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Raków Częstochowa are the form team by 1.31 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Korona Kielce.
Venue Form
On home soil, Raków Częstochowa have posted 2.71 PPG from 7 outings (6W 1D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.23 PPG overall — Raków Częstochowa are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Korona Kielce have gone 2W 2D 3L from 7 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 0.69 conceded per game recently; Korona Kielce are on 1.08 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Raków Częstochowa have seen both teams score in 23% of their recent games; Korona Kielce in 62%.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 62% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
Korona Kielce
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Korona Kielce in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 9W 2D 2L in their last 13 games (2.23 PPG), while Korona Kielce have gone 3W 3D 7L in their last 13 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Raków Częstochowa at home or Korona Kielce away?
Raków Częstochowa's home record (2.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Raków Częstochowa at home: 2.71 PPG; Korona Kielce away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Raków Częstochowa or Korona Kielce been keeping clean sheets recently?
Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 62% of their recent games, Korona Kielce in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 8 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Raków Częstochowa have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Nov 2025, when Raków Częstochowa won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Raków Częstochowa's record when hosting Korona Kielce specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Raków Częstochowa
2
Draws
1
Korona Kielce
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Korona Kielce?
From 8 meetings on record, Raków Częstochowa have won 5, Korona Kielce have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and Korona Kielce last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2026, when Raków Częstochowa 2-0 Korona Kielce.
Who has won more matches between Raków Częstochowa and Korona Kielce?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Korona Kielce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Raków Częstochowa 29%, Korona Kielce 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Raków Częstochowa) and 43% (Korona Kielce).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa keep a clean sheet in 71% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / Korona Kielce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Raków Częstochowa play Korona Kielce?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Raków Częstochowa's recent matches and 57% of Korona Kielce's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Raków Częstochowa vs Korona Kielce usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Raków Częstochowa's recent games and 43% of Korona Kielce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Raków Częstochowa and Korona Kielce tend to score early?
Raków Częstochowa have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Korona Kielce in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Raków Częstochowa edge out Korona Kielce 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Raków Częstochowa beat Korona Kielce 1-0 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków, Regular Season - 14, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 2.13 xG and Korona Kielce 0.78 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Raków Częstochowa fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 1.31 / defence 0.73 against Korona Kielce attack 0.94 / defence 1.24, drawn from 47/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 69% | Draw 19% | Korona Kielce 12%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 69%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 54%, Korona Kielce 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (13 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 23% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time, and duly kept one.
Korona Kielce's trading profile (13 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 2.23 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward. Korona Kielce (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.