Raków Częstochowa 5-0 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Raków Częstochowa at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 19 as Raków Częstochowa welcome Jagiellonia to Stadion Raków. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 December 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Raków Częstochowa have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Raków Częstochowa's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 1L across 8 games at Stadion Raków this term (1.88 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Raków.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jagiellonia stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Jagiellonia have posted 2W 2D 4L from 8 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Raków Częstochowa 1.70 PPG, Jagiellonia 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Raków Częstochowa, 1 for Jagiellonia and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Aug 2021, ended 0–3 with Jagiellonia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Raków Częstochowa in-play and half-time data (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Jagiellonia in-play and half-time data (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Raków Częstochowa 56% and Jagiellonia 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 72% | Jagiellonia 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.80 xG and Jagiellonia 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.174 / defence 1.048 | Jagiellonia attack 0.828 / defence 1.262. League average goals — home 1.215 / away 1.189. Jagiellonia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.262 — this is suppressing Raków Częstochowa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Raków Częstochowa games / 18 Jagiellonia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 55% | Draw 23% | Jagiellonia 22%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 1.82 | Draw 4.35 | Jagiellonia 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Raków Częstochowa (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Raków Częstochowa are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Raków Częstochowa 50% | Jagiellonia 62% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadion Raków • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Dec 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 55% | Draw 23% | Jagiellonia 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 54% | xG Raków Częstochowa 1.80 / Jagiellonia 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.174 / def 1.048 | Jagiellonia attack 0.828 / def 1.262 | league avg home 1.215 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Jagiellonia xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 18 December 2021 at Stadion Raków.
What was the final score in Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia?
Raków Częstochowa 5 - 0 Jagiellonia.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Raków.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 55% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 22% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and Jagiellonia will score (BTTS).
Will Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Jagiellonia?
Record (1 meetings): Raków Częstochowa 0W | Draws 0 | Jagiellonia 1W.
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Jagiellonia in?
Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Jagiellonia (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Raków Częstochowa's attack at 1.17x the league average against Jagiellonia's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.80 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jagiellonia's attack versus Raków Częstochowa's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
55%
1.81
23%
4.33
22%
4.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
2.83
1.03
Jagiellonia xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
4.65
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
17%
6.05
Win to Nil
20%
5.06
4%
28.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 10.9 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 1.03 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 18 outings, Raków Częstochowa have picked up 1.78 PPG on a 9W 5D 4L record — L-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jagiellonia's form line: 6W 6D 6L from 18 games, 1.33 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-W. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Raków Częstochowa are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Jagiellonia.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Raków Częstochowa have posted 1.88 PPG from 8 outings (4W 3D 1L).
On the road, Jagiellonia have gone 2W 2D 4L from 8 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 1.33 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia in 67%.
Last 18 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
Jagiellonia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 9W 5D 4L in their last 18 games (1.78 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 6W 6D 6L in their last 18 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Raków Częstochowa at home or Jagiellonia away?
Raków Częstochowa's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Raków Częstochowa at home: 1.88 PPG; Jagiellonia away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Raków Częstochowa or Jagiellonia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Jagiellonia in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Raków Częstochowa and Jagiellonia runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 13 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Dec 2021, when Raków Częstochowa won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Raków Częstochowa's record when hosting Jagiellonia specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Raków Częstochowa
2
Draws
4
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Jagiellonia?
From 10 meetings on record, Raków Częstochowa have won 4, Jagiellonia have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and Jagiellonia last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Raków Częstochowa 0-2 Jagiellonia.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Raków Częstochowa 50%, Jagiellonia 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Raków Częstochowa and 62% for Jagiellonia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Raków Częstochowa play Jagiellonia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Raków Częstochowa's games and 62% of Jagiellonia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Raków Częstochowa's matches and 62% of Jagiellonia's.
Do Raków Częstochowa and Jagiellonia tend to score early?
Raków Częstochowa have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Jagiellonia in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Raków Częstochowa run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Jagiellonia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Raków Częstochowa beat Jagiellonia 5-0 at Stadion Raków, Regular Season - 19, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.80 xG and Jagiellonia 1.03 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Raków Częstochowa beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jagiellonia landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 1.17 / defence 1.05 against Jagiellonia attack 0.83 / defence 1.26, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 55% | Draw 23% | Jagiellonia 22%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 72%, Jagiellonia 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Jagiellonia's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.33. Form held, and they took the win. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.