Raków Częstochowa 1-2 GKS Katowice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Raków Częstochowa at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Raków Częstochowa face GKS Katowice.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Raków Częstochowa host GKS Katowice at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków in Ekstraklasa (matchday 20). Kick-off is Saturday 8 February 2025 at 16:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Raków Częstochowa have gone 5W 5D 0L — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D D W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Raków Częstochowa's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.00 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Looking at their last 10 matches, GKS Katowice stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
GKS Katowice's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 4L across their last 9 road games (1.22 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Raków Częstochowa at 2.00 PPG versus GKS Katowice's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Raków Częstochowa, 0 for GKS Katowice and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 3 Aug 2024, ended Raków Częstochowa 1–0 GKS Katowice — a Raków Częstochowa win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Raków Częstochowa trading profile (last 19 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 44% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
GKS Katowice trading profile (last 19 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 32% versus GKS Katowice 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Raków Częstochowa 26% | GKS Katowice 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.73 xG and GKS Katowice 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.001 / defence 0.891 | GKS Katowice attack 1.083 / defence 1.188. League average goals — home 1.454 / away 1.148. Data: built from Raków Częstochowa's last 53 games and GKS Katowice's last 19.
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 50% | Draw 27% | GKS Katowice 23%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 1.98 | Draw 3.75 | GKS Katowice 4.37. Raków Częstochowa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Raków Częstochowa at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Raków Częstochowa's last 10 home games and GKS Katowice's last 9 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Raków Częstochowa 40% (last 10 home games) | GKS Katowice 44% (last 9 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 20 | Venue: Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków • Kick-off: Saturday 8 February 2025 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 50% | Draw 27% | GKS Katowice 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Raków Częstochowa 1.73 / GKS Katowice 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.001 / def 0.891 | GKS Katowice attack 1.083 / def 1.188 | league avg home 1.454 / away 1.148 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
1.11
GKS Katowice xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice FAQs
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Saturday 8 February 2025 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What was the final score in Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice?
Raków Częstochowa 1 - 2 GKS Katowice.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice being played?
The match is being played at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 20) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 50% chance of winning, GKS Katowice a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and GKS Katowice will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Raków Częstochowa's attack rating (1.00) and GKS Katowice's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.73 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, GKS Katowice's attack versus Raków Częstochowa's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Raków Częstochowa's last 53 games and GKS Katowice's last 19 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
50%
1.98
27%
3.75
23%
4.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
2.84
1.11
GKS Katowice xG
1.98
50%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
4.37
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
18%
5.64
Win to Nil
17%
6.00
4%
24.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.2 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and GKS Katowice expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 1.11 for GKS Katowice, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 19 outings, Raków Częstochowa have picked up 1.95 PPG on a 10W 7D 2L record — D-D-W-D-D across the most recent five.
GKS Katowice's form line: 7W 5D 7L from 19 games, 1.37 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Raków Częstochowa are the form team by 0.58 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against GKS Katowice.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Raków Częstochowa have posted 1.67 PPG from their last 9 home games (4W 3D 2L).
On the road, GKS Katowice have gone 3W 2D 4L from their last 9 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 0.58 conceded per game recently; GKS Katowice are on 1.47 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
GKS Katowice
Blended
Raków Częstochowa (Home) vs GKS Katowice (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
GKS Katowice
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❓ Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice Form FAQs
What form are Raków Częstochowa and GKS Katowice in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 10W 7D 2L in their last 19 games (1.95 PPG), while GKS Katowice have gone 7W 5D 7L in their last 19 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Raków Częstochowa at home or GKS Katowice away?
Raków Częstochowa's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Raków Częstochowa at home: 1.67 PPG; GKS Katowice away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Raków Częstochowa or GKS Katowice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their recent games, GKS Katowice in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 5 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2024. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 9 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 9 Oct 2026, when GKS Katowice won Raków Częstochowa 1-4 GKS Katowice.
Raków Częstochowa's record when hosting GKS Katowice specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Raków Częstochowa
0
Draws
2
GKS Katowice
Recent Meetings
❓ Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and GKS Katowice?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Raków Częstochowa have won 3, GKS Katowice have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and GKS Katowice last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 October 2026: Raków Częstochowa 1-4 GKS Katowice.
Who has won more matches between Raków Częstochowa and GKS Katowice?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Raków Częstochowa see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
GKS Katowice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Raków Częstochowa 33%, GKS Katowice 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 22% (Raków Częstochowa) and 56% (GKS Katowice).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Raków Częstochowa have failed to score in 33% of games; GKS Katowice in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / GKS Katowice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Raków Częstochowa and GKS Katowice matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Raków Częstochowa's recent matches and 44% of GKS Katowice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Raków Częstochowa and GKS Katowice matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Raków Częstochowa's recent games and 56% of GKS Katowice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Raków Częstochowa and GKS Katowice matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 44% of Raków Częstochowa's recent matches and 89% of GKS Katowice's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as GKS Katowice defy the odds to beat Raków Częstochowa 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GKS Katowice beat Raków Częstochowa 1-2 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków, Regular Season - 20, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.73 xG and GKS Katowice 1.11 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. GKS Katowice outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 1.00 / defence 0.89 against GKS Katowice attack 1.08 / defence 1.19, drawn from 53/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 50% | Draw 27% | GKS Katowice 23%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a GKS Katowice win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 26%, GKS Katowice 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and conceded here.
GKS Katowice's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.37. Form was overturned, with GKS Katowice winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.