Radomiak Radom 2-0 Slask Wroclaw – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Slask Wroclaw travel to Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego to take on Radomiak Radom. The game is scheduled for Saturday 15 October 2022, 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Radomiak Radom stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Radomiak Radom's home record at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Slask Wroclaw — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Slask Wroclaw, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Slask Wroclaw have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Radomiak Radom 1.20 PPG, Slask Wroclaw 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Radomiak Radom, 0 for Slask Wroclaw and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 13 Mar 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Radomiak Radom in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Slask Wroclaw in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 50% versus Slask Wroclaw 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 37% | Slask Wroclaw 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.17 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.896 / defence 1.169 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.826 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.317 / away 1.170. Data: 46 Radomiak Radom games / 46 Slask Wroclaw games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 37% | Draw 28% | Slask Wroclaw 35%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Slask Wroclaw 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Radomiak Radom are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Radomiak Radom 50% | Slask Wroclaw 60%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Oct 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 37% | Draw 28% | Slask Wroclaw 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.17 / Slask Wroclaw 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 0.896 / def 1.169 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.826 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.317 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Slask Wroclaw xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 15 October 2022 at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw?
Radomiak Radom 2 - 0 Slask Wroclaw.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 37% chance of winning, Slask Wroclaw a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Slask Wroclaw will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Slask Wroclaw?
Record (2 meetings): Radomiak Radom 0W | Draws 2 | Slask Wroclaw 0W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Slask Wroclaw in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Radomiak Radom's attack at 0.90x the league average against Slask Wroclaw's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Slask Wroclaw's attack versus Radomiak Radom's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
37%
2.71
28%
3.53
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.30
1.13
Slask Wroclaw xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
12%
8.39
11%
9.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 11.3 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.2 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.8 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Slask Wroclaw expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.13 for Slask Wroclaw, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 46 outings, Radomiak Radom have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 15W 17D 14L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slask Wroclaw's form line: 11W 18D 17L from 46 games, 1.11 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-W. The sample for Slask Wroclaw is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Radomiak Radom on 1.35 PPG, Slask Wroclaw on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Radomiak Radom have posted 1.45 PPG from 22 outings (8W 8D 6L).
On the road, Slask Wroclaw have gone 5W 8D 9L from 22 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Slask Wroclaw are on 1.20 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Slask Wroclaw in 65%.
Last 46 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Slask Wroclaw
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Slask Wroclaw in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 15W 17D 14L in their last 46 games (1.35 PPG), while Slask Wroclaw have gone 11W 18D 17L in their last 46 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Slask Wroclaw away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.45 PPG; Slask Wroclaw away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Radomiak Radom and Slask Wroclaw runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Radomiak Radom's record when hosting Slask Wroclaw specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Radomiak Radom
3
Draws
2
Slask Wroclaw
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Slask Wroclaw?
From 8 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 3, Slask Wroclaw have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Slask Wroclaw last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2025, when Radomiak Radom 1-1 Slask Wroclaw.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Slask Wroclaw?
Radomiak Radom have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Slask Wroclaw are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Radomiak Radom 59%, Slask Wroclaw 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Radomiak Radom) and 46% (Slask Wroclaw).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Slask Wroclaw away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Slask Wroclaw?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Radomiak Radom's games and 68% of Slask Wroclaw's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 46% of Slask Wroclaw's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Slask Wroclaw tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Slask Wroclaw in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Radomiak Radom cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Slask Wroclaw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Radomiak Radom beat Slask Wroclaw 2-0 at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 13, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.17 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.13 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Radomiak Radom beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Slask Wroclaw landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 0.90 / defence 1.17 against Slask Wroclaw attack 0.83 / defence 0.99, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 37% | Draw 28% | Slask Wroclaw 35%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 37%, Slask Wroclaw 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.35 PPG, Slask Wroclaw 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Radomiak Radom win broke the near-deadlock. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Slask Wroclaw (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.