Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Slask Wroclaw travel to to take on Radomiak Radom. The game is scheduled for Saturday 31 October 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Radomiak Radom stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Radomiak Radom's home record at : 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Radomiak Radom are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Slask Wroclaw — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Slask Wroclaw, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Slask Wroclaw have posted 0W 1D 5L from 6 away outings — 0.17 PPG. Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Radomiak Radom 0.80 PPG, Slask Wroclaw 0.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Radomiak Radom, 2 for Slask Wroclaw and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 8 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.6 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Radomiak Radom in-play and half-time data (11 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Slask Wroclaw in-play and half-time data (11 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 36% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Radomiak Radom 64% and Slask Wroclaw 91% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Radomiak Radom 73% | Slask Wroclaw 82%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.73 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.880 / defence 1.168 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.915 / defence 1.279. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.332. Slask Wroclaw bring a strong defensive rating of 1.279 — this is suppressing Radomiak Radom's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Radomiak Radom games / 11 Slask Wroclaw games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 42% | Draw 30% | Slask Wroclaw 29%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Slask Wroclaw 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Radomiak Radom are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.16 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 80% | Slask Wroclaw 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 42% | Draw 30% | Slask Wroclaw 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 66% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.73 / Slask Wroclaw 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 0.880 / def 1.168 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.915 / def 1.279 | league avg home 1.539 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Slask Wroclaw xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 31 October 2026.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 42% chance of winning, Slask Wroclaw a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Slask Wroclaw will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Slask Wroclaw?
Record (8 meetings): Radomiak Radom 3W | Draws 3 | Slask Wroclaw 2W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Slask Wroclaw in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Radomiak Radom's attack at 0.88x the league average against Slask Wroclaw's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Slask Wroclaw's attack versus Radomiak Radom's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
42%
2.39
30%
3.37
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
3.16
1.42
Slask Wroclaw xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.91
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
18%
5.65
Win to Nil
10%
9.95
5%
19.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.1 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.5 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.1 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Slask Wroclaw expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.42 for Slask Wroclaw, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 11 outings, Radomiak Radom have picked up 0.73 PPG on a 2W 2D 7L record — W-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slask Wroclaw's form line: 1W 3D 7L from 11 games, 0.55 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Slask Wroclaw is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Radomiak Radom on 0.73 PPG, Slask Wroclaw on 0.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Radomiak Radom have posted 1.17 PPG from 6 outings (2W 1D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 0.73 PPG overall — Radomiak Radom are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Slask Wroclaw have gone 0W 1D 5L from 6 away games — 0.17 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Radomiak Radom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.64 conceded per game recently; Slask Wroclaw are on 1.27 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Radomiak Radom have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Slask Wroclaw in 91%.
Last 11 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Slask Wroclaw
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Slask Wroclaw in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 2W 2D 7L in their last 11 games (0.73 PPG), while Slask Wroclaw have gone 1W 3D 7L in their last 11 (0.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Slask Wroclaw away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.17 PPG; Slask Wroclaw away: 0.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Radomiak Radom and Slask Wroclaw runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Radomiak Radom's record when hosting Slask Wroclaw specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Radomiak Radom
3
Draws
2
Slask Wroclaw
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Slask Wroclaw?
From 8 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 3, Slask Wroclaw have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Slask Wroclaw last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2025, when Radomiak Radom 1-1 Slask Wroclaw.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Slask Wroclaw?
Radomiak Radom have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Slask Wroclaw are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Radomiak Radom at 67%, Slask Wroclaw at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Radomiak Radom and 83% for Slask Wroclaw. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Radomiak Radom have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Slask Wroclaw away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Slask Wroclaw?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Radomiak Radom's games and 100% of Slask Wroclaw's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Radomiak Radom's matches and 83% of Slask Wroclaw's.
Do Radomiak Radom and Slask Wroclaw tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Slask Wroclaw in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.