Radomiak Radom 0-0 Raków Częstochowa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Raków Częstochowa (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Radomiak Radom face Raków Częstochowa.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Radomiak Radom host Raków Częstochowa at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 10 April 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Radomiak Radom have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Radomiak Radom have posted 3W 1D 6L at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Raków Częstochowa — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Raków Częstochowa have posted 6W 3D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. Raków Częstochowa's 2.30 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Radomiak Radom's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Radomiak Radom, 2 for Raków Częstochowa and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2022, ended 0–3 with Raków Częstochowa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Radomiak Radom in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Raków Częstochowa in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 50% versus Raków Częstochowa 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 38% | Raków Częstochowa 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 0.82 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.749 / defence 1.043 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.119 / defence 0.892. League average goals — home 1.231 / away 1.023. Radomiak Radom's attack strength of 0.749 is below the league average — the 0.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 60 Radomiak Radom games / 60 Raków Częstochowa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 23% | Draw 34% | Raków Częstochowa 43%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 4.35 | Draw 2.94 | Raków Częstochowa 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Raków Częstochowa at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.02 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 20% | Raków Częstochowa 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Monday 10 Apr 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 23% | Draw 34% | Raków Częstochowa 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Radomiak Radom 0.82 / Raków Częstochowa 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 0.749 / def 1.043 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.119 / def 0.892 | league avg home 1.231 / away 1.023 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Raków Częstochowa xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa kicked off at 16:30 on Monday 10 April 2023 at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa?
Radomiak Radom 0 - 0 Raków Częstochowa.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 23% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 43% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Raków Częstochowa?
Record (3 meetings): Radomiak Radom 0W | Draws 1 | Raków Częstochowa 2W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Raków Częstochowa in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Radomiak Radom's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Raków Częstochowa's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.82. The same calculation in reverse, Raków Częstochowa's attack versus Radomiak Radom's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 0-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
23%
4.27
34%
2.95
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.02
1.19
Raków Częstochowa xG
4.27
23%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
44%
2.28
Win to Nil
7%
14.08
19%
5.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 15.9 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.1 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.19 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Radomiak Radom's recent record stands at 20W 21D 19L from 60 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Raków Częstochowa, meanwhile, have gone 39W 13D 8L across 60 games — 2.17 PPG, with W-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Raków Częstochowa by 0.82 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Radomiak Radom heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Radomiak Radom have managed 11W 9D 10L from 30 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Raków Częstochowa's away record stands at 17W 6D 7L across 30 trips, a 1.90 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.87 scored and 0.82 conceded.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 20W 21D 19L in their last 60 games (1.35 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 39W 13D 8L in their last 60 (2.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Raków Częstochowa away?
Raków Częstochowa's away record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.40 PPG; Raków Częstochowa away: 1.90 PPG.
Have Radomiak Radom or Raków Częstochowa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Radomiak Radom have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Raków Częstochowa in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Sep 2022, when Raków Częstochowa won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Radomiak Radom's record when hosting Raków Częstochowa specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Radomiak Radom
3
Draws
5
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Raków Częstochowa?
From 10 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 2, Raków Częstochowa have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Raków Częstochowa 0-0 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Raków Częstochowa?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Radomiak Radom 53%, Raków Częstochowa 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Radomiak Radom) and 53% (Raków Częstochowa).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa in 37%; Radomiak Radom have failed to score in 27% of games; Raków Częstochowa in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Raków Częstochowa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Radomiak Radom's recent matches and 47% of Raków Częstochowa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 53% of Raków Częstochowa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Radomiak Radom's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Radomiak Radom and Raków Częstochowa finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 27, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 0.82 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.19 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Radomiak Radom fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Raków Częstochowa landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 0.75 / defence 1.04 against Raków Częstochowa attack 1.12 / defence 0.89, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 23% | Draw 34% | Raków Częstochowa 43%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 38%, Raków Częstochowa 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.35. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.