Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Radomiak Radom host Raków Częstochowa at in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 5 December 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Radomiak Radom have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Radomiak Radom have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Radomiak Radom have posted 4W 3D 3L at — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Radomiak Radom are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Raków Częstochowa — All Games: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Raków Częstochowa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Raków Częstochowa have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Radomiak Radom) versus 0.90 (Raków Częstochowa). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Raków Częstochowa have the better historical record — 5 wins from 10 previous contests against 2 for Radomiak Radom.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Raków Częstochowa have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Radomiak Radom in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Raków Częstochowa in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Radomiak Radom 68% and Raków Częstochowa 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 60% | Raków Częstochowa 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.54 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.945 / defence 1.012 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.979 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.530 / away 1.280. Data: 41 Radomiak Radom games / 39 Raków Częstochowa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 40% | Draw 32% | Raków Częstochowa 28%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.50 | Draw 3.12 | Raków Częstochowa 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.54 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Radomiak Radom at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 80% | Raków Częstochowa 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Dec 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 40% | Draw 32% | Raków Częstochowa 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 60% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.54 / Raków Częstochowa 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 0.945 / def 1.012 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.979 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.530 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Raków Częstochowa xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 5 December 2026.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 40% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 28% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Raków Częstochowa?
Record (10 meetings): Radomiak Radom 2W | Draws 3 | Raków Częstochowa 5W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Raków Częstochowa in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Radomiak Radom's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Raków Częstochowa's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. The same calculation in reverse, Raków Częstochowa's attack versus Radomiak Radom's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
40%
2.49
32%
3.12
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.81
1.27
Raków Częstochowa xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
11%
8.86
6%
16.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.7 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.8 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.27 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Radomiak Radom's recent record stands at 12W 13D 15L from 40 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Raków Częstochowa, meanwhile, have gone 16W 7D 17L across 40 games — 1.38 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Radomiak Radom on 1.23 PPG, Raków Częstochowa on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Radomiak Radom have managed 10W 5D 5L from 20 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.23 PPG overall — Radomiak Radom are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Raków Częstochowa's away record stands at 8W 3D 9L across 20 trips, a 1.35 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.42 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Radomiak Radom have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Raków Częstochowa in 60%.
Last 40 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Early Season
Raków Częstochowa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 12W 13D 15L in their last 40 games (1.23 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 16W 7D 17L in their last 40 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Raków Częstochowa away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.75 PPG; Raków Częstochowa away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Sep 2022, when Raków Częstochowa won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Radomiak Radom's record when hosting Raków Częstochowa specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Radomiak Radom
3
Draws
5
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Raków Częstochowa?
From 10 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 2, Raków Częstochowa have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Raków Częstochowa 0-0 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Raków Częstochowa?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Radomiak Radom at 70%, Raków Częstochowa at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Radomiak Radom and 60% for Raków Częstochowa. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Raków Częstochowa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Radomiak Radom's games and 70% of Raków Częstochowa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Radomiak Radom's matches and 60% of Raków Częstochowa's.
Do Radomiak Radom and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.