Radomiak Radom 2-2 Piast Gliwice – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Radomiak Radom at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Radomiak Radom host Piast Gliwice at Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 14 December 2021 at 17:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Radomiak Radom stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Radomiak Radom at Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza this season: 5W 3D 0L from 8 home games — 2.25 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Piast Gliwice — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Piast Gliwice away from home this season: 2W 2D 4L from 8 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.88 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Radomiak Radom are in the better shape of the two on current Ekstraklasa data — 1.00 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Trading Patterns
Radomiak Radom in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Piast Gliwice in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 59% versus Piast Gliwice 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Radomiak Radom 35% | Piast Gliwice 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.24 xG and Piast Gliwice 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 1.042 / defence 0.961 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.731 / defence 0.979. League average goals — home 1.213 / away 1.191. Data: 17 Radomiak Radom games / 17 Piast Gliwice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 46% | Draw 29% | Piast Gliwice 25%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Piast Gliwice 4.00. Radomiak Radom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Radomiak Radom are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.07 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates are neutral: Radomiak Radom 75% | Piast Gliwice 25%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza • Kick-off: Tuesday 14 Dec 2021, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 46% | Draw 29% | Piast Gliwice 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 40% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.24 / Piast Gliwice 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 1.042 / def 0.961 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.731 / def 0.979 | league avg home 1.213 / away 1.191 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Piast Gliwice xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice kicked off at 17:45 on Tuesday 14 December 2021 at Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice?
Radomiak Radom 2 - 2 Piast Gliwice.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 46% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Piast Gliwice (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Radomiak Radom's attack rating (1.04) and Piast Gliwice's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Piast Gliwice's attack versus Radomiak Radom's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
46%
2.19
29%
3.40
25%
3.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.07
0.84
Piast Gliwice xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
3.99
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
20%
5.06
7%
13.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 10.5 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 13.0 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 0.84 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 17 outings, Radomiak Radom have picked up 1.82 PPG on a 8W 7D 2L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Piast Gliwice's form line: 6W 3D 8L from 17 games, 1.24 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-L. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Radomiak Radom are the form team by 0.58 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Piast Gliwice.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Radomiak Radom have posted 2.25 PPG from 8 outings (5W 3D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.82 PPG overall — Radomiak Radom are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Piast Gliwice have gone 2W 2D 4L from 8 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Radomiak Radom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 1.35 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 17 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Piast Gliwice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 8W 7D 2L in their last 17 games (1.82 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 6W 3D 8L in their last 17 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Piast Gliwice away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 2.25 PPG; Piast Gliwice away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 20 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Radomiak Radom's record when hosting Piast Gliwice specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Radomiak Radom
5
Draws
2
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice?
From 10 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 3, Piast Gliwice have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2026, when Piast Gliwice 3-1 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice?
Radomiak Radom have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Radomiak Radom 75%, Piast Gliwice 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for Radomiak Radom and 12% for Piast Gliwice.
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Piast Gliwice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Radomiak Radom's recent matches and 25% of Piast Gliwice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 12% of Piast Gliwice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Piast Gliwice in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza, Regular Season - 17, as Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice drew 2-2 in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.24 xG and Piast Gliwice 0.84 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Piast Gliwice outscored their 0.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 1.04 / defence 0.96 against Piast Gliwice attack 0.73 / defence 0.98, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 46% | Draw 29% | Piast Gliwice 25%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 35%, Piast Gliwice 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Radomiak Radom arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.