Radomiak Radom 1-0 Piast Gliwice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Radomiak Radom host Piast Gliwice at Stadion Radomiaka in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 September 2025 at 11:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Radomiak Radom stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Radomiak Radom at Stadion Radomiaka this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Radomiak Radom are significantly better at Stadion Radomiaka than their overall form suggests.
Piast Gliwice — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Piast Gliwice have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Piast Gliwice away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Radomiak Radom 0.90 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Radomiak Radom, 1 for Piast Gliwice and 5 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Radomiak Radom in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Piast Gliwice in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 70% versus Piast Gliwice 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 62% | Piast Gliwice 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.73 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 1.237 / defence 1.041 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.902 / defence 0.904. League average goals — home 1.549 / away 1.186. Data: 42 Radomiak Radom games / 40 Piast Gliwice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 52% | Draw 24% | Piast Gliwice 24%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | Piast Gliwice 4.17. Radomiak Radom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Radomiak Radom are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 80% | Piast Gliwice 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadion Radomiaka • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Sep 2025, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 52% | Draw 24% | Piast Gliwice 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.73 / Piast Gliwice 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 1.237 / def 1.041 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.902 / def 0.904 | league avg home 1.549 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Piast Gliwice xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice kicked off at 11:15 on Saturday 20 September 2025 at Stadion Radomiaka.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice?
Radomiak Radom 1 - 0 Piast Gliwice.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Radomiaka.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 52% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice?
Record (8 meetings): Radomiak Radom 2W | Draws 5 | Piast Gliwice 1W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Piast Gliwice (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Radomiak Radom's attack rating (1.24) and Piast Gliwice's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.73 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Piast Gliwice's attack versus Radomiak Radom's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
52%
1.93
24%
4.21
24%
4.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.85
1.11
Piast Gliwice xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
4.09
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
18%
5.65
Win to Nil
17%
5.88
4%
23.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.2 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.11 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 40 outings, Radomiak Radom have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 12W 10D 18L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Piast Gliwice's form line: 11W 16D 13L from 40 games, 1.23 PPG, last five L-D-D-D-D. It's still early in the season for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Radomiak Radom on 1.15 PPG, Piast Gliwice on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Radomiak Radom have posted 1.50 PPG from 20 outings (8W 6D 6L).
On the road, Piast Gliwice have gone 6W 6D 8L from 20 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 1.00 scored and 1.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Radomiak Radom have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Piast Gliwice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 12W 10D 18L in their last 40 games (1.15 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 11W 16D 13L in their last 40 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Piast Gliwice away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.50 PPG; Piast Gliwice away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Radomiak Radom or Piast Gliwice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Radomiak Radom have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Piast Gliwice in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 20 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Radomiak Radom's record when hosting Piast Gliwice specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Radomiak Radom
5
Draws
2
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice?
From 10 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 3, Piast Gliwice have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2026, when Piast Gliwice 3-1 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice?
Radomiak Radom have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Radomiak Radom 75%, Piast Gliwice 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Radomiak Radom) and 30% (Piast Gliwice).
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Piast Gliwice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Radomiak Radom's games and 45% of Piast Gliwice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 30% of Piast Gliwice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Piast Gliwice in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Radomiak Radom edge out Piast Gliwice 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Radomiak Radom beat Piast Gliwice 1-0 at Stadion Radomiaka, Regular Season - 9, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.73 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.11 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Piast Gliwice landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 1.24 / defence 1.04 against Piast Gliwice attack 0.90 / defence 0.90, drawn from 42/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 52% | Draw 24% | Piast Gliwice 24%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 62%, Piast Gliwice 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.15 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Radomiak Radom win broke the near-deadlock. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.