Radomiak Radom 1-1 Miedz Legnica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Radomiak Radom vs Miedz Legnica fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Miedz Legnica travel to Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego to take on Radomiak Radom. The game is scheduled for Sunday 17 July 2022, 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Radomiak Radom stand at 1W 6D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Radomiak Radom haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Radomiak Radom's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.65 xG and Miedz Legnica 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 1.048 / defence 1.201 | Miedz Legnica attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.153. Data: 34 Radomiak Radom games / 0 Miedz Legnica games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 47% | Draw 27% | Miedz Legnica 26%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Miedz Legnica 3.85. Radomiak Radom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Radomiak Radom are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Miedz Legnica | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Jul 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 47% | Draw 27% | Miedz Legnica 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.65 / Miedz Legnica 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 1.048 / def 1.201 | Miedz Legnica attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.372 / away 1.153 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Miedz Legnica xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Miedz Legnica kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Miedz Legnica kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 17 July 2022 at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Miedz Legnica?
Radomiak Radom 1 - 1 Miedz Legnica.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Miedz Legnica being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Miedz Legnica part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Miedz Legnica is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Miedz Legnica?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 47% chance of winning, Miedz Legnica a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Miedz Legnica?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Miedz Legnica will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Miedz Legnica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Miedz Legnica?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Miedz Legnica in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Radomiak Radom's attack rating (1.05) and Miedz Legnica's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.65 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Miedz Legnica's attack versus Radomiak Radom's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
47%
2.11
27%
3.74
26%
3.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.83
1.18
Miedz Legnica xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.85
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
19%
5.22
Win to Nil
15%
6.85
5%
20.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.5 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Miedz Legnica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Miedz Legnica expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.18 for Miedz Legnica, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Miedz Legnica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Pre-Season
Miedz Legnica
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Radomiak Radom
2
Draws
0
Miedz Legnica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Miedz Legnica?
From 2 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 0, Miedz Legnica have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Miedz Legnica last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2023, when Miedz Legnica 0-0 Radomiak Radom.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Miedz Legnica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Radomiak Radom and Miedz Legnica share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 1, as Radomiak Radom and Miedz Legnica drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.65 xG and Miedz Legnica 1.18 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 1.05 / defence 1.20 against Miedz Legnica attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 34/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 47% | Draw 27% | Miedz Legnica 26%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.