Radomiak Radom 2-1 Lech Poznan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Lech Poznan travel to Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza to take on Radomiak Radom. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 December 2021, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Radomiak Radom stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Radomiak Radom's home record at Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza: 4W 3D 0L from 7 Ekstraklasa appearances (2.14 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Lech Poznan have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Lech Poznan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Lech Poznan have posted 4W 3D 1L from 8 away outings — 1.88 PPG. Away from home they average 1.62 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (Radomiak Radom) versus 2.30 (Lech Poznan). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Radomiak Radom register both teams scoring in 71% of relevant matches, Lech Poznan in 62% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Radomiak Radom, 0 for Lech Poznan and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 23 Jul 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Radomiak Radom in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
Lech Poznan in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 56% versus Lech Poznan 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Radomiak Radom 31% | Lech Poznan 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.22 xG and Lech Poznan 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.972 / defence 0.972 | Lech Poznan attack 0.944 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.222 / away 1.177. Data: 16 Radomiak Radom games / 17 Lech Poznan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 39% | Draw 28% | Lech Poznan 32%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Lech Poznan 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Radomiak Radom at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. This conflicts with form data: Radomiak Radom 71% | Lech Poznan 62% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Dec 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 39% | Draw 28% | Lech Poznan 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.22 / Lech Poznan 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 0.972 / def 0.972 | Lech Poznan attack 0.944 / def 1.024 | league avg home 1.222 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Lech Poznan xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 11 December 2021 at Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan?
Radomiak Radom 2 - 1 Lech Poznan.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan being played?
The match is being played at Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 39% chance of winning, Lech Poznan a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Lech Poznan will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Lech Poznan?
Record (1 meetings): Radomiak Radom 0W | Draws 1 | Lech Poznan 0W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Lech Poznan in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Lech Poznan (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Radomiak Radom's attack at 0.97x the league average against Lech Poznan's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lech Poznan's attack versus Radomiak Radom's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
39%
2.55
28%
3.53
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.30
1.08
Lech Poznan xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
13%
7.51
10%
10.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 10.9 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.2 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Lech Poznan expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.08 for Lech Poznan, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 16 outings, Radomiak Radom have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 7W 7D 2L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lech Poznan's form line: 11W 4D 1L from 16 games, 2.31 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-W. The sample for Lech Poznan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Lech Poznan are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Radomiak Radom.
Venue Form
On home soil, Radomiak Radom have posted 2.14 PPG from 7 outings (4W 3D 0L).
On the road, Lech Poznan have gone 3W 3D 1L from 7 away games — 1.71 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.31 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lech Poznan's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Radomiak Radom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 0.81 conceded per game recently; Lech Poznan are on 2.12 scored and 0.62 conceded. Lech Poznan's attacking output running into Radomiak Radom's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Lech Poznan in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Lech Poznan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Lech Poznan in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 7W 7D 2L in their last 16 games (1.75 PPG), while Lech Poznan have gone 11W 4D 1L in their last 16 (2.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Lech Poznan away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 2.14 PPG; Lech Poznan away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Radomiak Radom or Lech Poznan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Radomiak Radom have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Lech Poznan in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Lech Poznan have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Nov 2025, when Lech Poznan won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Radomiak Radom's record when hosting Lech Poznan specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Radomiak Radom
4
Draws
5
Lech Poznan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Lech Poznan?
From 10 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 1, Lech Poznan have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Lech Poznan last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Radomiak Radom 1-3 Lech Poznan.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Lech Poznan?
Lech Poznan have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Radomiak Radom see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Lech Poznan see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Radomiak Radom 71%, Lech Poznan 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Radomiak Radom) and 43% (Lech Poznan).
On the defensive side: Lech Poznan in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Lech Poznan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Lech Poznan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Radomiak Radom's games and 57% of Lech Poznan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 43% of Lech Poznan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Radomiak Radom edge out Lech Poznan 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Radomiak Radom beat Lech Poznan 2-1 at Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza, Regular Season - 18, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.22 xG and Lech Poznan 1.08 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 0.97 / defence 0.97 against Lech Poznan attack 0.94 / defence 1.02, drawn from 16/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 39% | Draw 28% | Lech Poznan 32%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 31%, Lech Poznan 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Lech Poznan's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lech Poznan arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 1.75. Form was overturned, with Radomiak Radom winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lech Poznan (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.