Radomiak Radom 3-0 ŁKS Łódź – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Radomiak Radom vs ŁKS Łódź fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Radomiaka Radom plays host to Radomiak Radom versus ŁKS Łódź in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Saturday 7 October 2023 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
Radomiak Radom (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Radomiak Radom's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Stadion Radomiaka Radom this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
ŁKS Łódź have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for ŁKS Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ŁKS Łódź away from home this season: 0W 0D 5L from 5 away games — 0.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 0.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Radomiak Radom, 0.70 for ŁKS Łódź — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Radomiak Radom half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
ŁKS Łódź half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 60% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Radomiak Radom 40% | ŁKS Łódź 30%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Radomiak Radom 30% | ŁKS Łódź 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.48 xG and ŁKS Łódź 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.889 / defence 1.059 | ŁKS Łódź attack 0.578 / defence 1.108. League average goals — home 1.498 / away 1.107. Data: 44 Radomiak Radom games / 10 ŁKS Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 55% | Draw 29% | ŁKS Łódź 16%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 1.82 | Draw 3.45 | ŁKS Łódź 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Radomiak Radom (55%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Radomiak Radom as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.15 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 50% | ŁKS Łódź 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs ŁKS Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadion Radomiaka Radom • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Oct 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 55% | Draw 29% | ŁKS Łódź 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 39% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.48 / ŁKS Łódź 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 0.889 / def 1.059 | ŁKS Łódź attack 0.578 / def 1.108 | league avg home 1.498 / away 1.107 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
0.68
ŁKS Łódź xG
39%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs ŁKS Łódź kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs ŁKS Łódź kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 7 October 2023 at Stadion Radomiaka Radom.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs ŁKS Łódź?
Radomiak Radom 3 - 0 ŁKS Łódź.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs ŁKS Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Radomiaka Radom.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs ŁKS Łódź part of?
Radomiak Radom vs ŁKS Łódź is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs ŁKS Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 55% chance of winning, ŁKS Łódź a 16% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs ŁKS Łódź?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Radomiak Radom and ŁKS Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs ŁKS Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and ŁKS Łódź?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Radomiak Radom and ŁKS Łódź in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. ŁKS Łódź (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Radomiak Radom's attack at 0.89x the league average against ŁKS Łódź's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — ŁKS Łódź's attack (0.58x) against Radomiak Radom's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.68.
These ratings are built from 44/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 1-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
55%
1.81
29%
3.50
16%
6.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.15
0.68
ŁKS Łódź xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
6.23
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
51%
1.97
23%
4.37
Win to Nil
28%
3.55
4%
27.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 7.9 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.1 | 11.6 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.6 | 8.6 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs ŁKS Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and ŁKS Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 0.68 for ŁKS Łódź, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs ŁKS Łódź?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Radomiak Radom come into this having played 10 games, going 3W 2D 5L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-L. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, ŁKS Łódź sit at 0.70 PPG from 10 outings (2W 1D 7L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for ŁKS Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Radomiak Radom carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.40 PPG clear of ŁKS Łódź — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Radomiak Radom's home form reads 1W 2D 1L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, ŁKS Łódź have taken 0.00 points per game from 4 outings (0W 0D 4L). That's a step down from their 0.70 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of ŁKS Łódź's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Radomiak Radom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; ŁKS Łódź are on 0.60 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: ŁKS Łódź in 30%.
Last 10 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Blended
ŁKS Łódź
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and ŁKS Łódź in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 games (1.10 PPG), while ŁKS Łódź have gone 2W 1D 7L in their last 10 (0.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or ŁKS Łódź away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.25 PPG; ŁKS Łódź away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Radomiak Radom
0
Draws
1
ŁKS Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and ŁKS Łódź?
From 2 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 1, ŁKS Łódź have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and ŁKS Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 14 April 2024, when ŁKS Łódź 3-2 Radomiak Radom.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Radomiak Radom see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
ŁKS Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Radomiak Radom 75%, ŁKS Łódź 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Radomiak Radom and 25% for ŁKS Łódź.
On the defensive side: ŁKS Łódź in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / ŁKS Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play ŁKS Łódź?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Radomiak Radom's recent matches and 25% of ŁKS Łódź's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Radomiak Radom vs ŁKS Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 25% of ŁKS Łódź's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and ŁKS Łódź tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, ŁKS Łódź in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Radomiak Radom run riot with a 3-0 hammering of ŁKS Łódź.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Radomiak Radom beat ŁKS Łódź 3-0 at Stadion Radomiaka Radom, Regular Season - 11, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.48 xG and ŁKS Łódź 0.68 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Radomiak Radom beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 0.89 / defence 1.06 against ŁKS Łódź attack 0.58 / defence 1.11, drawn from 44/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 55% | Draw 29% | ŁKS Łódź 16%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 30%, ŁKS Łódź 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.
ŁKS Łódź's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 60% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Radomiak Radom arrived the stronger side — 1.10 PPG against 0.70. Form held, and they took the win. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. ŁKS Łódź (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.