Radomiak Radom 0-2 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Radomiak Radom vs Cracovia Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Radomiak Radom and Cracovia Krakow meet at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Friday 30 September 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Radomiak Radom (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Radomiak Radom's home record at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Cracovia Krakow have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cracovia Krakow have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Radomiak Radom against 1.40 for Cracovia Krakow. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Radomiak Radom, 1 for Cracovia Krakow and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2022, ended 0–1 with Cracovia Krakow winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Radomiak Radom half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Cracovia Krakow half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 52% versus Cracovia Krakow 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Radomiak Radom 39% | Cracovia Krakow 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.35 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.964 / defence 1.082 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.760 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 1.187. Data: 44 Radomiak Radom games / 44 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 45% | Draw 28% | Cracovia Krakow 27%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Cracovia Krakow 3.70. Radomiak Radom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Radomiak Radom at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 60% | Cracovia Krakow 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Friday 30 Sep 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 45% | Draw 28% | Cracovia Krakow 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.35 / Cracovia Krakow 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 0.964 / def 1.082 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.760 / def 1.006 | league avg home 1.389 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Cracovia Krakow xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 30 September 2022 at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Cracovia Krakow?
Radomiak Radom 0 - 2 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 45% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Cracovia Krakow?
Record (2 meetings): Radomiak Radom 1W | Draws 0 | Cracovia Krakow 1W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Cracovia Krakow in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Radomiak Radom's attack rating (0.96) and Cracovia Krakow's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cracovia Krakow's attack (0.76x) against Radomiak Radom's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 0-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
45%
2.21
28%
3.62
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.32
0.98
Cracovia Krakow xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
17%
5.86
7%
14.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 12.9 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 0.98 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 44 outings, Radomiak Radom have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 15W 17D 12L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cracovia Krakow's form line: 16W 12D 16L from 44 games, 1.36 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-D. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for Radomiak Radom against 1.36 for Cracovia Krakow. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Radomiak Radom have posted 1.52 PPG from 21 outings (8W 8D 5L).
On the road, Cracovia Krakow have gone 6W 6D 9L from 21 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.18 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 15W 17D 12L in their last 44 games (1.41 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 16W 12D 16L in their last 44 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.52 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Radomiak Radom or Cracovia Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Radomiak Radom have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Cracovia Krakow in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 11 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cracovia Krakow won 6-0 on 10 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Radomiak Radom have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Cracovia Krakow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Radomiak Radom
1
Draws
5
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Cracovia Krakow?
From 10 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 4, Cracovia Krakow have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when Cracovia Krakow 0-0 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Cracovia Krakow?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Radomiak Radom 62%, Cracovia Krakow 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Radomiak Radom) and 33% (Cracovia Krakow).
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Cracovia Krakow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Radomiak Radom's recent matches and 43% of Cracovia Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 33% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cracovia Krakow cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Radomiak Radom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cracovia Krakow beat Radomiak Radom 0-2 at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 11, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.35 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.98 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Radomiak Radom fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Cracovia Krakow outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 0.96 / defence 1.08 against Cracovia Krakow attack 0.76 / defence 1.01, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 45% | Draw 28% | Cracovia Krakow 27%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Cracovia Krakow win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 39%, Cracovia Krakow 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.41 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cracovia Krakow win broke the near-deadlock. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.