Radomiak Radom 3-0 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 47%, yet the head-to-head data favours Cracovia Krakow — this Radomiak Radom vs Cracovia Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Radomiak Radom and Cracovia Krakow meet at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów in Ekstraklasa (matchday 15). This fixture gets under way on Friday 7 November 2025 at 17:00 UK time.
Form
Radomiak Radom (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Radomiak Radom's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Radomiak Radom are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Cracovia Krakow have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Cracovia Krakow have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Radomiak Radom against 1.50 for Cracovia Krakow. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Radomiak Radom's last 10 home games and Cracovia Krakow's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 80% of Radomiak Radom's games and 70% of Cracovia Krakow's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Cracovia Krakow have the stronger record — 5 wins to Radomiak Radom's 2, with 0 draws.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 Mar 2025, ended Radomiak Radom 2–1 Cracovia Krakow — a Radomiak Radom win.
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 5 wins from 7 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading
Radomiak Radom half-time and goal-timing data (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Cracovia Krakow half-time and goal-timing data (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 58%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Radomiak Radom 72% and Cracovia Krakow 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 64% | Cracovia Krakow 57%). Note also that Cracovia Krakow surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Radomiak Radom recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.78 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 1.136 / defence 0.972 | Cracovia Krakow attack 1.132 / defence 0.979. League average goals — home 1.604 / away 1.178. Data: built from Radomiak Radom's last 48 games and Cracovia Krakow's last 47.
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 47% | Draw 26% | Cracovia Krakow 26%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.11 | Draw 3.82 | Cracovia Krakow 3.79. Radomiak Radom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.78 / 1.30) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Radomiak Radom at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Radomiak Radom's last 10 home games and Cracovia Krakow's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.7 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Radomiak Radom 80% (last 10 home games) | Cracovia Krakow 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 15 | Venue: Stadion im. Braci Czachorów • Kick-off: Friday 7 November 2025 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 47% | Draw 26% | Cracovia Krakow 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Radomiak Radom 1.78 / Cracovia Krakow 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 1.136 / def 0.972 | Cracovia Krakow attack 1.132 / def 0.979 | league avg home 1.604 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Cracovia Krakow xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Cracovia Krakow FAQs
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Friday 7 November 2025 at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Cracovia Krakow?
Radomiak Radom 3 - 0 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Cracovia Krakow is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 15) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 47% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Cracovia Krakow will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Radomiak Radom vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Radomiak Radom's attack rating (1.14) and Cracovia Krakow's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.78 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cracovia Krakow's attack (1.13x) against Radomiak Radom's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from Radomiak Radom's last 48 games and Cracovia Krakow's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
47%
2.11
26%
3.82
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
3.08
1.30
Cracovia Krakow xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
17%
5.95
Win to Nil
13%
7.71
4%
22.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 10.6 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Cracovia Krakow Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.30 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 47 outings, Radomiak Radom have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 15W 12D 20L record — D-W-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Cracovia Krakow's form line: 20W 13D 14L from 47 games, 1.55 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Radomiak Radom against 1.55 for Cracovia Krakow. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Radomiak Radom have posted 1.61 PPG from their last 23 home games (10W 7D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — Radomiak Radom are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Cracovia Krakow have gone 11W 4D 8L from their last 23 away games — 1.61 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.68 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Radomiak Radom have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games; Cracovia Krakow in 70%.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
Radomiak Radom (Home) vs Cracovia Krakow (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Cracovia Krakow Form FAQs
What form are Radomiak Radom and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 15W 12D 20L in their last 47 games (1.21 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 20W 13D 14L in their last 47 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.61 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 1.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 29 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cracovia Krakow won Cracovia Krakow 6-0 Radomiak Radom on 10 Feb 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Radomiak Radom have gone 3W 0D 3L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Cracovia Krakow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Radomiak Radom
1
Draws
5
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Cracovia Krakow H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Cracovia Krakow?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Radomiak Radom have won 4, Cracovia Krakow have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 August 2026: Radomiak Radom 2-1 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Cracovia Krakow?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 74% for Radomiak Radom, 70% for Cracovia Krakow — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Radomiak Radom) and 65% (Cracovia Krakow). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Cracovia Krakow Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Radomiak Radom and Cracovia Krakow matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Radomiak Radom's games and 70% of Cracovia Krakow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Radomiak Radom and Cracovia Krakow matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Radomiak Radom's matches and 65% of Cracovia Krakow's.
Do Radomiak Radom and Cracovia Krakow matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Radomiak Radom's recent matches and 78% of Cracovia Krakow's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Radomiak Radom run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Cracovia Krakow.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Radomiak Radom beat Cracovia Krakow 3-0 at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów, Regular Season - 15, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.78 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.30 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Radomiak Radom beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cracovia Krakow landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 1.14 / defence 0.97 against Cracovia Krakow attack 1.13 / defence 0.98, drawn from 48/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 47% | Draw 26% | Cracovia Krakow 26%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 64%, Cracovia Krakow 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.21 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Radomiak Radom win broke the near-deadlock. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.74 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.