Puszcza Niepołomice 1-1 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Puszcza Niepołomice at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Puszcza Niepołomice vs Radomiak Radom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Radomiak Radom make the trip to Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego to face Puszcza Niepołomice in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Monday 1 April 2024 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
Puszcza Niepołomice (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Puszcza Niepołomice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Puszcza Niepołomice's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Radomiak Radom have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Radomiak Radom have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Puszcza Niepołomice against 1.20 for Radomiak Radom. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Puszcza Niepołomice lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Puszcza Niepołomice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Radomiak Radom goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Puszcza Niepołomice 68% versus Radomiak Radom 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Puszcza Niepołomice 48% | Radomiak Radom 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Puszcza Niepołomice 1.64 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.951 / defence 1.180 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.043 / defence 1.196. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.140. Data: 25 Puszcza Niepołomice games / 59 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Puszcza Niepołomice 41% | Draw 28% | Radomiak Radom 31%. Fair-value odds: Puszcza Niepołomice 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Radomiak Radom 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Puszcza Niepołomice are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Puszcza Niepołomice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Puszcza Niepołomice 80% | Radomiak Radom 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Puszcza Niepołomice vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Monday 1 Apr 2024, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Puszcza Niepołomice 41% | Draw 28% | Radomiak Radom 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 63% | xG Puszcza Niepołomice 1.64 / Radomiak Radom 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.951 / def 1.180 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.043 / def 1.196 | league avg home 1.444 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Puszcza Niepołomice (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Radomiak Radom xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Puszcza Niepołomice vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Puszcza Niepołomice vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 11:30 on Monday 1 April 2024 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Puszcza Niepołomice vs Radomiak Radom?
Puszcza Niepołomice 1 - 1 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Puszcza Niepołomice vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Puszcza Niepołomice vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Puszcza Niepołomice a 41% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Puszcza Niepołomice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Puszcza Niepołomice vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Puszcza Niepołomice and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Puszcza Niepołomice vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Puszcza Niepołomice and Radomiak Radom?
Record (1 meetings): Puszcza Niepołomice 0W | Draws 1 | Radomiak Radom 0W.
What form are Puszcza Niepołomice and Radomiak Radom in?
Puszcza Niepołomice (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-L-D. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Puszcza Niepołomice's attack rating (0.95) and Radomiak Radom's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Radomiak Radom's attack (1.04x) against Puszcza Niepołomice's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 25/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Puszcza Niepołomice Win
41%
2.43
28%
3.55
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
Total xG
3.04
1.40
Radomiak Radom xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
25%
4.07
19%
5.17
Win to Nil
10%
9.89
6%
16.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.7 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.0 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.0 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Puszcza Niepołomice vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Puszcza Niepołomice and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Puszcza Niepołomice and 1.40 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Puszcza Niepołomice vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Puszcza Niepołomice come into this having played 25 games, going 5W 9D 11L for 0.96 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-D. The sample for Puszcza Niepołomice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Radomiak Radom sit at 1.24 PPG from 25 outings (8W 7D 10L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.96 PPG for Puszcza Niepołomice against 1.24 for Radomiak Radom. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Puszcza Niepołomice's home form reads 4W 6D 2L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.96 PPG overall — Puszcza Niepołomice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Radomiak Radom have taken 1.42 points per game from 12 outings (5W 2D 5L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Puszcza Niepołomice are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.16 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Puszcza Niepołomice have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 25 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Puszcza Niepołomice
Blended
Radomiak Radom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Puszcza Niepołomice and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 5W 9D 11L in their last 25 games (0.96 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 8W 7D 10L in their last 25 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Puszcza Niepołomice at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Puszcza Niepołomice's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Puszcza Niepołomice at home: 1.50 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 1.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Radomiak Radom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Puszcza Niepołomice
3
Draws
1
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Puszcza Niepołomice and Radomiak Radom?
From 4 meetings on record, Puszcza Niepołomice have won 0, Radomiak Radom have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Puszcza Niepołomice and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2025, when Puszcza Niepołomice 2-2 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Puszcza Niepołomice and Radomiak Radom?
Radomiak Radom have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Puszcza Niepołomice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Puszcza Niepołomice 75%, Radomiak Radom 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Puszcza Niepołomice) and 50% (Radomiak Radom).
On the defensive side: Radomiak Radom in 42%; Radomiak Radom in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Puszcza Niepołomice home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Puszcza Niepołomice play Radomiak Radom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Puszcza Niepołomice's recent matches and 25% of Radomiak Radom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Puszcza Niepołomice's recent games and 50% of Radomiak Radom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Puszcza Niepołomice and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Puszcza Niepołomice have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Puszcza Niepołomice and Radomiak Radom share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Puszcza Niepołomice and Radomiak Radom finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 26, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Puszcza Niepołomice 1.64 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.40 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.95 / defence 1.18 against Radomiak Radom attack 1.04 / defence 1.20, drawn from 25/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Puszcza Niepołomice 41% | Draw 28% | Radomiak Radom 31%, with Puszcza Niepołomice to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Puszcza Niepołomice 48%, Radomiak Radom 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Puszcza Niepołomice's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Puszcza Niepołomice 0.96 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.