Pogon Szczecin 2-2 Wisla Plock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wisla Plock at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 5 as Pogon Szczecin welcome Wisla Plock to Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 August 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Pogon Szczecin have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Pogon Szczecin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Pogon Szczecin have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wisla Plock stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Wisla Plock have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Wisla Plock have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Pogon Szczecin at 1.80 PPG versus Wisla Plock's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Pogon Szczecin have won 0, Wisla Plock 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Apr 2022, ended 1–2 with Wisla Plock winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Pogon Szczecin trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games).
Wisla Plock trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 63% versus Wisla Plock 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 53% | Wisla Plock 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.50 xG and Wisla Plock 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.213 / defence 0.936 | Wisla Plock attack 1.382 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.267 / away 1.210. Wisla Plock have an above-average attack strength of 1.382 — the away xG of 1.57 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 38 Pogon Szczecin games / 38 Wisla Plock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 37% | Draw 24% | Wisla Plock 39%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 2.70 | Draw 4.17 | Wisla Plock 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.50 / 1.57) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wisla Plock at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wisla Plock offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.07 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Pogon Szczecin 70% | Wisla Plock 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Aug 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 37% | Draw 24% | Wisla Plock 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.50 / Wisla Plock 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.213 / def 0.936 | Wisla Plock attack 1.382 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.267 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: Wisla Plock (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Wisla Plock xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 13 August 2022 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock?
Pogon Szczecin 2 - 2 Wisla Plock.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 37% chance of winning, Wisla Plock a 39% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Wisla Plock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Wisla Plock will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Wisla Plock?
Record (2 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 0W | Draws 0 | Wisla Plock 2W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Wisla Plock in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Wisla Plock (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Pogon Szczecin's attack rating (1.21) and Wisla Plock's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Wisla Plock's attack versus Pogon Szczecin's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Plock Win
37%
2.74
24%
4.17
39%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
3.07
1.57
Wisla Plock xG
2.74
37%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
2.53
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
21%
4.79
22%
4.48
Win to Nil
8%
13.11
9%
11.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.3 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.0 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.2 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Wisla Plock expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.57 for Wisla Plock, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 38 outings, Pogon Szczecin have picked up 1.95 PPG on a 21W 11D 6L record — D-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Wisla Plock's form line: 19W 3D 16L from 38 games, 1.58 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Wisla Plock, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pogon Szczecin on 1.95 PPG, Wisla Plock on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Pogon Szczecin have posted 2.21 PPG from 19 outings (13W 3D 3L).
On the road, Wisla Plock have gone 6W 1D 12L from 19 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.58 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Wisla Plock's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Wisla Plock are on 1.63 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pogon Szczecin have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Early Season
Wisla Plock
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Wisla Plock in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 21W 11D 6L in their last 38 games (1.95 PPG), while Wisla Plock have gone 19W 3D 16L in their last 38 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Wisla Plock away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 2.21 PPG; Wisla Plock away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pogon Szczecin and Wisla Plock runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 May 2026, when Pogon Szczecin won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pogon Szczecin's record when hosting Wisla Plock specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Pogon Szczecin
1
Draws
3
Wisla Plock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Wisla Plock?
From 6 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 2, Wisla Plock have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Wisla Plock last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Pogon Szczecin 3-0 Wisla Plock.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Wisla Plock?
Wisla Plock have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Pogon Szczecin at 74%, Wisla Plock at 63%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Pogon Szczecin and 68% for Wisla Plock. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wisla Plock in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Wisla Plock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Wisla Plock?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Pogon Szczecin's games and 63% of Wisla Plock's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Pogon Szczecin's matches and 68% of Wisla Plock's.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Wisla Plock tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Wisla Plock in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pogon Szczecin and Wisla Plock share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin and Wisla Plock finished level at 2-2 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 5, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.50 xG and Wisla Plock 1.57 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.21 / defence 0.94 against Wisla Plock attack 1.38 / defence 0.98, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 37% | Draw 24% | Wisla Plock 39%, with Wisla Plock to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 53%, Wisla Plock 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Wisla Plock's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pogon Szczecin 1.95 PPG, Wisla Plock 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.