Pogon Szczecin 4-1 Wisla Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Krakow encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pogon Szczecin and Wisla Krakow meet at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Friday 18 March 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Pogon Szczecin (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pogon Szczecin's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Wisla Krakow have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Wisla Krakow have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Pogon Szczecin. A 1.40 PPG lead over Wisla Krakow (2.10 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Pogon Szczecin, 0 for Wisla Krakow and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2021, ended 1–0 with Pogon Szczecin winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Pogon Szczecin — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Wisla Krakow — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 56% versus Wisla Krakow 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 40% | Wisla Krakow 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 2.01 xG and Wisla Krakow 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.402 / defence 1.190 | Wisla Krakow attack 0.763 / defence 1.355. League average goals — home 1.057 / away 1.051. Pogon Szczecin carry an above-average attack strength of 1.402 — their λ of 2.01 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Wisla Krakow bring a strong defensive rating of 1.355 — this is suppressing Pogon Szczecin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Pogon Szczecin games / 25 Wisla Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 61% | Draw 23% | Wisla Krakow 16%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 1.64 | Draw 4.35 | Wisla Krakow 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Pogon Szczecin (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pogon Szczecin are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Pogon Szczecin 80% | Wisla Krakow 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Friday 18 Mar 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 61% | Draw 23% | Wisla Krakow 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 54% | xG Pogon Szczecin 2.01 / Wisla Krakow 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.402 / def 1.190 | Wisla Krakow attack 0.763 / def 1.355 | league avg home 1.057 / away 1.051 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Wisla Krakow xG
54%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Krakow kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Krakow kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 18 March 2022 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Krakow?
Pogon Szczecin 4 - 1 Wisla Krakow.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Krakow part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Krakow is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 61% chance of winning, Wisla Krakow a 16% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Krakow?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Wisla Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Wisla Krakow?
Record (1 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 1W | Draws 0 | Wisla Krakow 0W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Wisla Krakow in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Wisla Krakow (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Pogon Szczecin's attack at 1.40x the league average against Wisla Krakow's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 2.01 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Wisla Krakow's attack (0.76x) against Pogon Szczecin's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
61%
1.64
23%
4.43
16%
6.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
2.96
0.95
Wisla Krakow xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
6.10
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
39%
2.60
13%
7.45
Win to Nil
24%
4.25
2%
45.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Wisla Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 0.95 for Wisla Krakow, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Krakow?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Pogon Szczecin's recent record stands at 14W 8D 3L from 25 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wisla Krakow, meanwhile, have gone 6W 6D 13L across 25 games — 0.96 PPG, with L-D-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Wisla Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Pogon Szczecin by 1.04 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Wisla Krakow heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Pogon Szczecin have managed 9W 2D 1L from 12 games — 2.42 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.00 PPG overall — Pogon Szczecin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Wisla Krakow's away record stands at 2W 2D 8L across 12 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; Wisla Krakow are on 0.96 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 25 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Wisla Krakow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Wisla Krakow in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 14W 8D 3L in their last 25 games (2.00 PPG), while Wisla Krakow have gone 6W 6D 13L in their last 25 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Wisla Krakow away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (2.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 2.42 PPG; Wisla Krakow away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Pogon Szczecin or Wisla Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Wisla Krakow in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Pogon Szczecin
0
Draws
0
Wisla Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Wisla Krakow?
From 2 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 2, Wisla Krakow have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Wisla Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2022, when Pogon Szczecin 4-1 Wisla Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Wisla Krakow?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Wisla Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 67%, Wisla Krakow 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Pogon Szczecin) and 50% (Wisla Krakow). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wisla Krakow in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Wisla Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Wisla Krakow?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Pogon Szczecin's games and 58% of Wisla Krakow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Pogon Szczecin's matches and 50% of Wisla Krakow's.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Wisla Krakow tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Wisla Krakow in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Pogon Szczecin run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Wisla Krakow.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Wisla Krakow 4-1 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 26, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 2.01 xG and Wisla Krakow 0.95 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Pogon Szczecin beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.40 / defence 1.19 against Wisla Krakow attack 0.76 / defence 1.35, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 61% | Draw 23% | Wisla Krakow 16%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 40%, Wisla Krakow 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Wisla Krakow's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.50 average — above their attacking norm. Wisla Krakow (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.