Pogon Szczecin 1-0 Piast Gliwice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Pogon Szczecin take on Piast Gliwice.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Piast Gliwice travel to Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera to take on Pogon Szczecin. The game is scheduled for Sunday 8 August 2021, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pogon Szczecin stand at 1W 1D 0L from 2 Ekstraklasa matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Pogon Szczecin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Piast Gliwice — All Games: 1W 0D 1L from 2 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Piast Gliwice have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pogon Szczecin are in the better shape of the two on current Ekstraklasa data — 0.50 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.14 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.070 / defence 1.010 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.967 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.075 / away 1.114. Data: 2 Pogon Szczecin games / 2 Piast Gliwice games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 34% | Draw 35% | Piast Gliwice 31%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 2.94 | Draw 2.86 | Piast Gliwice 3.23. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.23 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Aug 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 34% | Draw 35% | Piast Gliwice 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 48% | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.14 / Piast Gliwice 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.070 / def 1.010 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.967 / def 0.995 | league avg home 1.075 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Piast Gliwice xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 8 August 2021 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice?
Pogon Szczecin 1 - 0 Piast Gliwice.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 34% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 31% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Piast Gliwice will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Piast Gliwice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Piast Gliwice in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D. Piast Gliwice (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Pogon Szczecin's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Piast Gliwice's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. The same calculation in reverse, Piast Gliwice's attack versus Pogon Szczecin's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.93
35%
2.89
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
2.23
1.09
Piast Gliwice xG
2.93
34%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
11%
8.72
10%
10.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 11.7 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.09 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pogon Szczecin's recent record stands at 1W 1D 0L from 2 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Piast Gliwice, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 1L across 2 games — 1.50 PPG, with L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Pogon Szczecin by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Piast Gliwice heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 2.00 scored and 1.50 conceded. Piast Gliwice's attacking output running into Pogon Szczecin's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Piast Gliwice in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Early Season
Piast Gliwice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 games (2.00 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
Have Pogon Szczecin or Piast Gliwice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Piast Gliwice in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pogon Szczecin and Piast Gliwice runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 13 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Pogon Szczecin have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Pogon Szczecin's record when hosting Piast Gliwice specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Pogon Szczecin
3
Draws
2
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Piast Gliwice?
From 10 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 5, Piast Gliwice have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2026, when Piast Gliwice 0-2 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Piast Gliwice?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Piast Gliwice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Pogon Szczecin's recent matches and 50% of Piast Gliwice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Pogon Szczecin's recent games and 50% of Piast Gliwice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Piast Gliwice tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Piast Gliwice in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pogon Szczecin edge out Piast Gliwice 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Piast Gliwice 1-0 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 3, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.14 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.09 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Piast Gliwice landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.07 / defence 1.01 against Piast Gliwice attack 0.97 / defence 0.99, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 34% | Draw 35% | Piast Gliwice 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Pogon Szczecin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 0%, Piast Gliwice 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.50. Form held, and they took the win. Piast Gliwice managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.