Pogon Szczecin 3-1 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pogon Szczecin at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 30 as Pogon Szczecin welcome Legia Warszawa to Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera. Kick-off is set for Sunday 24 April 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Pogon Szczecin — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Pogon Szczecin at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Legia Warszawa stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Legia Warszawa's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Pogon Szczecin at 1.90 PPG versus Legia Warszawa's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Pogon Szczecin register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Legia Warszawa in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Pogon Szczecin in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games).
Legia Warszawa in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 62% versus Legia Warszawa 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 52% | Legia Warszawa 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.48 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.381 / defence 1.289 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.793 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 1.031 / away 1.176. Pogon Szczecin carry an above-average attack strength of 1.381 — their λ of 1.48 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 30 Pogon Szczecin games / 29 Legia Warszawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 44% | Draw 26% | Legia Warszawa 31%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Legia Warszawa 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pogon Szczecin at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Pogon Szczecin 80% | Legia Warszawa 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Apr 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 44% | Draw 26% | Legia Warszawa 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.48 / Legia Warszawa 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.381 / def 1.289 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.793 / def 1.038 | league avg home 1.031 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Legia Warszawa xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 24 April 2022 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa?
Pogon Szczecin 3 - 1 Legia Warszawa.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 44% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Legia Warszawa will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Legia Warszawa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Legia Warszawa in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Legia Warszawa (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Pogon Szczecin's attack rating (1.38) and Legia Warszawa's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Legia Warszawa's attack versus Pogon Szczecin's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
44%
2.30
26%
3.90
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
2.68
1.20
Legia Warszawa xG
2.30
44%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
23%
4.39
Win to Nil
13%
7.64
7%
14.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.2 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.0 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.20 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pogon Szczecin come into this having played 29 games, going 16W 8D 5L for 1.93 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, Legia Warszawa sit at 1.24 PPG from 29 outings (11W 3D 15L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-L across their last five.
Pogon Szczecin carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.69 PPG clear of Legia Warszawa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Pogon Szczecin's home form reads 9W 2D 3L across 14 games on their own ground, a 2.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Legia Warszawa have taken 0.86 points per game from 14 outings (3W 3D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.17 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pogon Szczecin have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 29 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Current Season
Legia Warszawa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 16W 8D 5L in their last 29 games (1.93 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 11W 3D 15L in their last 29 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Legia Warszawa away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 2.07 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 24 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Legia Warszawa have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Pogon Szczecin's record when hosting Legia Warszawa specifically: 3W 0D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Pogon Szczecin
3
Draws
4
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Legia Warszawa?
From 10 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 3, Legia Warszawa have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
They last met on 24 July 2026, when Pogon Szczecin 0-1 Legia Warszawa.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Legia Warszawa?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time.
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 79%, Legia Warszawa 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 79% (Pogon Szczecin) and 36% (Legia Warszawa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Legia Warszawa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of Pogon Szczecin's games and 50% of Legia Warszawa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 79% of Pogon Szczecin's matches and 36% of Legia Warszawa's.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Legia Warszawa tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Legia Warszawa in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pogon Szczecin cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Legia Warszawa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Legia Warszawa 3-1 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 30, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.48 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.20 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Pogon Szczecin beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.38 / defence 1.29 against Legia Warszawa attack 0.79 / defence 1.04, drawn from 30/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 44% | Draw 26% | Legia Warszawa 31%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 52%, Legia Warszawa 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.24. Form held, and they took the win. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.