Pogon Szczecin 2-1 Lechia Gdansk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pogon Szczecin vs Lechia Gdansk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Lechia Gdansk travel to Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera to take on Pogon Szczecin. The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 October 2022, 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pogon Szczecin stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pogon Szczecin's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Lechia Gdansk have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lechia Gdansk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lechia Gdansk away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Pogon Szczecin carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Pogon Szczecin, 0 for Lechia Gdansk and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Pogon Szczecin in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (home games).
Lechia Gdansk in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 65% versus Lechia Gdansk 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 56% | Lechia Gdansk 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 2.50 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.298 / defence 0.956 | Lechia Gdansk attack 0.952 / defence 1.416. League average goals — home 1.361 / away 1.192. Pogon Szczecin carry an above-average attack strength of 1.298 — their λ of 2.50 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Lechia Gdansk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.416 — this is suppressing Pogon Szczecin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Pogon Szczecin games / 43 Lechia Gdansk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 68% | Draw 17% | Lechia Gdansk 15%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 1.47 | Draw 5.88 | Lechia Gdansk 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Pogon Szczecin (68%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.59. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.59 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.50 / 1.08) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pogon Szczecin are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.59 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pogon Szczecin 80% | Lechia Gdansk 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Lechia Gdansk | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Oct 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 68% | Draw 17% | Lechia Gdansk 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 61% | xG Pogon Szczecin 2.50 / Lechia Gdansk 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.298 / def 0.956 | Lechia Gdansk attack 0.952 / def 1.416 | league avg home 1.361 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.50
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Lechia Gdansk xG
61%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Lechia Gdansk kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Lechia Gdansk kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 1 October 2022 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Lechia Gdansk?
Pogon Szczecin 2 - 1 Lechia Gdansk.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Lechia Gdansk being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Lechia Gdansk part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Lechia Gdansk is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 68% chance of winning, Lechia Gdansk a 15% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Lechia Gdansk will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Lechia Gdansk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Lechia Gdansk?
Record (2 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 1W | Draws 1 | Lechia Gdansk 0W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Lechia Gdansk in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. Lechia Gdansk (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Pogon Szczecin's attacking strength (1.30x league average) is weighed against Lechia Gdansk's defensive record (1.42x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.50. The same calculation in reverse, Lechia Gdansk's attack versus Pogon Szczecin's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (8.7%), 1-1 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
68%
1.47
17%
5.81
15%
6.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.7%
Home win
3 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.50
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
3.59
1.08
Lechia Gdansk xG
1.47
68%
Home win
5.81
17%
Draw
6.87
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
8%
12.19
Win to Nil
23%
4.34
1%
83.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 6.9 | 7.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 7.8 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Lechia Gdansk expected to score?
The model projects 2.50 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.08 for Lechia Gdansk, a combined total of 3.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Lechia Gdansk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pogon Szczecin's recent record stands at 22W 14D 7L from 43 games, a 1.86 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lechia Gdansk, meanwhile, have gone 17W 11D 15L across 43 games — 1.44 PPG, with L-L-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Lechia Gdansk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Pogon Szczecin by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lechia Gdansk heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Pogon Szczecin have managed 13W 5D 3L from 21 games — 2.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lechia Gdansk's away record stands at 5W 4D 12L across 21 trips, a 0.90 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.44 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lechia Gdansk's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Lechia Gdansk are on 1.40 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pogon Szczecin have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Lechia Gdansk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Lechia Gdansk in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 22W 14D 7L in their last 43 games (1.86 PPG), while Lechia Gdansk have gone 17W 11D 15L in their last 43 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Lechia Gdansk away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 2.10 PPG; Lechia Gdansk away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Pogon Szczecin or Lechia Gdansk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Lechia Gdansk in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Lechia Gdansk have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Nov 2021, when Pogon Szczecin won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pogon Szczecin's record when hosting Lechia Gdansk specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Pogon Szczecin
2
Draws
2
Lechia Gdansk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Lechia Gdansk?
From 8 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 4, Lechia Gdansk have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Lechia Gdansk last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Lechia Gdansk 2-1 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Lechia Gdansk?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Lechia Gdansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 76%, Lechia Gdansk 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 81% for Pogon Szczecin and 62% for Lechia Gdansk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lechia Gdansk in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Lechia Gdansk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Lechia Gdansk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of Pogon Szczecin's games and 52% of Lechia Gdansk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Lechia Gdansk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 81% of Pogon Szczecin's matches and 62% of Lechia Gdansk's.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Lechia Gdansk tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Lechia Gdansk in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pogon Szczecin edge out Lechia Gdansk 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Lechia Gdansk 2-1 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 11, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 2.50 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.08 xG, a combined 3.59. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.30 / defence 0.96 against Lechia Gdansk attack 0.95 / defence 1.42, drawn from 44/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 68% | Draw 17% | Lechia Gdansk 15%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 68%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 56%, Lechia Gdansk 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.44. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.