Pogon Szczecin 1-2 Lech Poznan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lech Poznan at 34% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Lech Poznan travel to Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera to take on Pogon Szczecin in Ekstraklasa (matchday 29). The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 April 2026 at 20:15 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Pogon Szczecin have gone 5W 1D 4L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Pogon Szczecin have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lech Poznan — last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Lech Poznan have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Pogon Szczecin 1.60 PPG, Lech Poznan 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
Lech Poznan have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the 9 H2H matches we hold against 1 for Pogon Szczecin.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.1 per game across the 9 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 19 Oct 2025, ended Pogon Szczecin 2–2 Lech Poznan — a draw.
The H2H data backs the away side. Lech Poznan have won 4 of 9 H2H matches, and at 3.1 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Pogon Szczecin trading profile (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Lech Poznan trading profile (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 48% versus Lech Poznan 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 53% | Lech Poznan 61%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Pogon Szczecin surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Lech Poznan have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 40% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.03 xG and Lech Poznan 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 0.963 / defence 1.041 | Lech Poznan attack 0.926 / defence 0.750. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.087. Lech Poznan bring a tight defence (rating 0.750, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Pogon Szczecin's projected output down. Data: built from Pogon Szczecin's last 62 games and Lech Poznan's last 62.
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 34% | Draw 32% | Lech Poznan 34%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 2.96 | Draw 3.15 | Lech Poznan 2.90. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 34% to win, with the draw at 32%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Pogon Szczecin 34% and Lech Poznan 34%, with the draw at 32%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 65% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.1 goals per game across 9 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 57%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Pogon Szczecin 70% (last 10 home games) | Lech Poznan 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 29 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Saturday 18 April 2026 at 20:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 34% | Draw 32% | Lech Poznan 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.03 / Lech Poznan 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 0.963 / def 1.041 | Lech Poznan attack 0.926 / def 0.750 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.087 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — Pogon Szczecin and Lech Poznan level at 34% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Lech Poznan xG
43%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan FAQs
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan kicked off at 20:15 UK time on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan?
Pogon Szczecin 1 - 2 Lech Poznan.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 29) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 34% chance of winning, Lech Poznan a 34% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Lech Poznan will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Pogon Szczecin's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Lech Poznan's defensive record (0.75x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. The same calculation in reverse, Lech Poznan's attack versus Pogon Szczecin's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Pogon Szczecin's last 62 games and Lech Poznan's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lech Poznan Win
34%
2.96
32%
3.15
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
2.08
1.05
Lech Poznan xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
12%
8.45
12%
8.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 13.1 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Lech Poznan expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.05 for Lech Poznan, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 62 outings, Pogon Szczecin have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 28W 11D 23L record — L-W-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Lech Poznan's form line: 34W 14D 14L from 62 games, 1.87 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pogon Szczecin on 1.53 PPG, Lech Poznan on 1.87. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Pogon Szczecin have posted 2.16 PPG from their last 31 home games (21W 4D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.53 PPG overall — Pogon Szczecin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Lech Poznan have gone 13W 9D 9L from their last 31 away games — 1.55 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Lech Poznan are on 1.89 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Lech Poznan in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Current Season
Lech Poznan
Current Season
Pogon Szczecin (Home) vs Lech Poznan (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pogon Szczecin
Current Season
Lech Poznan
Current Season
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan Form FAQs
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Lech Poznan in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 28W 11D 23L in their last 62 games (1.53 PPG), while Lech Poznan have gone 34W 14D 14L in their last 62 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Lech Poznan away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 2.16 PPG; Lech Poznan away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Pogon Szczecin or Lech Poznan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Lech Poznan in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from August 2021. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was on 18 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 Oct 2023, when Pogon Szczecin won Pogon Szczecin 5-0 Lech Poznan.
Pogon Szczecin's record when hosting Lech Poznan specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Pogon Szczecin
4
Draws
5
Lech Poznan
Recent Meetings
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Lech Poznan?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Pogon Szczecin have won 1, Lech Poznan have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Lech Poznan last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 April 2026: Pogon Szczecin 1-2 Lech Poznan.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Lech Poznan?
Lech Poznan have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Lech Poznan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 45%, Lech Poznan 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Pogon Szczecin) and 48% (Lech Poznan).
On the defensive side: Pogon Szczecin keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Lech Poznan in 45%; Lech Poznan in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Lech Poznan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pogon Szczecin and Lech Poznan matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Pogon Szczecin's recent matches and 45% of Lech Poznan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Pogon Szczecin and Lech Poznan matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Pogon Szczecin's recent games and 48% of Lech Poznan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Lech Poznan matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Pogon Szczecin's recent matches and 74% of Lech Poznan's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lech Poznan edge out Pogon Szczecin 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lech Poznan beat Pogon Szczecin 1-2 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 29, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.03 xG and Lech Poznan 1.05 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Lech Poznan outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 0.96 / defence 1.04 against Lech Poznan attack 0.93 / defence 0.75, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 34% | Draw 32% | Lech Poznan 34%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Lech Poznan win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 53%, Lech Poznan 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Lech Poznan's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pogon Szczecin 1.53 PPG, Lech Poznan 1.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lech Poznan win broke the near-deadlock. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.