Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Gornik Zabrze at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pogon Szczecin and Gornik Zabrze meet at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 5 December 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Pogon Szczecin's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Pogon Szczecin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pogon Szczecin at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Gornik Zabrze have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Gornik Zabrze have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Gornik Zabrze's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Gornik Zabrze are 0.60 PPG clear of Pogon Szczecin in recent Ekstraklasa fixtures (2.20 vs 1.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Pogon Szczecin lead 4W to 5W over the last 10 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Feb 2026, ended 1–0 with Pogon Szczecin winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Pogon Szczecin half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Gornik Zabrze half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 55% versus Gornik Zabrze 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 50% | Gornik Zabrze 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.35 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.012 / defence 0.996 | Gornik Zabrze attack 1.097 / defence 0.862. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.303. Data: 39 Pogon Szczecin games / 38 Gornik Zabrze games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 32% | Draw 31% | Gornik Zabrze 36%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 3.12 | Draw 3.23 | Gornik Zabrze 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gornik Zabrze are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gornik Zabrze if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pogon Szczecin 50% | Gornik Zabrze 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Dec 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 32% | Draw 31% | Gornik Zabrze 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 59% | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.35 / Gornik Zabrze 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.012 / def 0.996 | Gornik Zabrze attack 1.097 / def 0.862 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Gornik Zabrze (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Gornik Zabrze xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 5 December 2026 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 32% chance of winning, Gornik Zabrze a 36% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Gornik Zabrze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Gornik Zabrze will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Gornik Zabrze?
Record (10 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 4W | Draws 1 | Gornik Zabrze 5W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Gornik Zabrze in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Pogon Szczecin's attack at 1.01x the league average against Gornik Zabrze's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gornik Zabrze's attack (1.10x) against Pogon Szczecin's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 39/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gornik Zabrze Win
32%
3.08
31%
3.18
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
2.77
1.42
Gornik Zabrze xG
3.08
32%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
26%
3.84
Win to Nil
8%
12.78
9%
10.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.9 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.0 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Gornik Zabrze expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.42 for Gornik Zabrze, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pogon Szczecin come into this having played 38 games, going 15W 8D 15L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-D. It's still early in the season for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Gornik Zabrze sit at 1.71 PPG from 38 outings (19W 8D 11L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Gornik Zabrze, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Pogon Szczecin against 1.71 for Gornik Zabrze. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Pogon Szczecin's home form reads 9W 4D 5L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.72 PPG return.
Away from home, Gornik Zabrze have taken 1.39 points per game from 18 outings (6W 7D 5L).
Attack vs Defence
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Gornik Zabrze are on 1.55 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Early Season
Gornik Zabrze
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Gornik Zabrze in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 15W 8D 15L in their last 38 games (1.39 PPG), while Gornik Zabrze have gone 19W 8D 11L in their last 38 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Gornik Zabrze away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 1.72 PPG; Gornik Zabrze away: 1.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gornik Zabrze won 1-4 on 5 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pogon Szczecin have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gornik Zabrze — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Pogon Szczecin
1
Draws
5
Gornik Zabrze
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Gornik Zabrze?
From 10 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 4, Gornik Zabrze have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Gornik Zabrze last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Gornik Zabrze 0-1 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Gornik Zabrze?
Gornik Zabrze have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Gornik Zabrze see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 67%, Gornik Zabrze 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Pogon Szczecin) and 39% (Gornik Zabrze).
On the defensive side: Gornik Zabrze in 39%; Gornik Zabrze in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Gornik Zabrze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Gornik Zabrze?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Pogon Szczecin's games and 50% of Gornik Zabrze's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Pogon Szczecin's recent games and 39% of Gornik Zabrze's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Gornik Zabrze tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Gornik Zabrze in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.