Pogon Szczecin 4-1 Górnik Łęczna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pogon Szczecin vs Górnik Łęczna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Pogon Szczecin host Górnik Łęczna at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 3 October 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Pogon Szczecin — All Games: 4W 4D 1L from 9 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.78 points per game. Last five: W D D D W. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 0.78 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.78 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Pogon Szczecin have gone 3W 1D 0L this season (4 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.78 — Pogon Szczecin are significantly better at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Górnik Łęczna have recorded 1W 2D 6L from 9 outings — 0.56 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.78 per game is modest, conceding 2.44 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.44 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Górnik Łęczna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Górnik Łęczna's away record: 0W 1D 3L from 4 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.25 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
On current form, Pogon Szczecin have the edge — a 1.22 PPG advantage (1.78 vs 0.56) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Data
Pogon Szczecin trading profile (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 67% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).
Górnik Łęczna trading profile (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 56% versus Górnik Łęczna 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Pogon Szczecin 11% | Górnik Łęczna 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.85 xG and Górnik Łęczna 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.098 / defence 0.932 | Górnik Łęczna attack 0.646 / defence 1.402. League average goals — home 1.204 / away 1.191. Górnik Łęczna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.402 — this is suppressing Pogon Szczecin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Pogon Szczecin games / 9 Górnik Łęczna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 64% | Draw 22% | Górnik Łęczna 14%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 1.56 | Draw 4.55 | Górnik Łęczna 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Pogon Szczecin (64%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pogon Szczecin at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Pogon Szczecin 50% | Górnik Łęczna 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Górnik Łęczna | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Oct 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 64% | Draw 22% | Górnik Łęczna 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 43% | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.85 / Górnik Łęczna 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.098 / def 0.932 | Górnik Łęczna attack 0.646 / def 1.402 | league avg home 1.204 / away 1.191 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Górnik Łęczna xG
43%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Górnik Łęczna kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Górnik Łęczna kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 3 October 2021 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Górnik Łęczna?
Pogon Szczecin 4 - 1 Górnik Łęczna.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Górnik Łęczna being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Górnik Łęczna part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Górnik Łęczna is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Górnik Łęczna?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 64% chance of winning, Górnik Łęczna a 14% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Górnik Łęczna?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Górnik Łęczna will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Górnik Łęczna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Górnik Łęczna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Górnik Łęczna in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 4W-4D-1L in 9 | 1.78 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 0.78 | L5 W-D-D-D-W. Górnik Łęczna (all comps): 1W-2D-6L in 9 | 0.56 PPG | GF 0.78 / GA 2.44 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Pogon Szczecin's attack rating (1.10) and Górnik Łęczna's defence rating (1.40), the model arrives at 1.85 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Górnik Łęczna's attack versus Pogon Szczecin's defence, projects 0.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 1-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
64%
1.55
22%
4.60
14%
7.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
2.57
0.72
Górnik Łęczna xG
1.55
64%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
7.25
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
49%
2.05
16%
6.39
Win to Nil
31%
3.18
2%
46.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 10.2 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 13.1 | 9.4 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Górnik Łęczna?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Górnik Łęczna expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 0.72 for Górnik Łęczna, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Górnik Łęczna?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pogon Szczecin come into this having played 9 games, going 4W 4D 1L for 1.78 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-D-W. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Górnik Łęczna sit at 0.56 PPG from 9 outings (1W 2D 6L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Górnik Łęczna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pogon Szczecin carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.22 PPG clear of Górnik Łęczna — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Pogon Szczecin's home form reads 3W 1D 0L across 4 games on their own ground, a 2.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.78 PPG overall — Pogon Szczecin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Górnik Łęczna have taken 0.25 points per game from 4 outings (0W 1D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; Górnik Łęczna are on 0.78 scored and 2.44 conceded.
Last 9 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Górnik Łęczna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Górnik Łęczna in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 4W 4D 1L in their last 9 games (1.78 PPG), while Górnik Łęczna have gone 1W 2D 6L in their last 9 (0.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Górnik Łęczna away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 2.50 PPG; Górnik Łęczna away: 0.25 PPG.
Have Pogon Szczecin or Górnik Łęczna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Górnik Łęczna in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pogon Szczecin and Górnik Łęczna runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Pogon Szczecin
0
Draws
0
Górnik Łęczna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Górnik Łęczna?
From 2 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 2, Górnik Łęczna have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Górnik Łęczna last play each other?
They last met on 2 April 2022, when Górnik Łęczna 0-4 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Górnik Łęczna?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Górnik Łęczna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 50%, Górnik Łęczna 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Pogon Szczecin) and 50% (Górnik Łęczna).
On the defensive side: Pogon Szczecin keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Górnik Łęczna in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Górnik Łęczna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Górnik Łęczna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Pogon Szczecin's recent matches and 50% of Górnik Łęczna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Górnik Łęczna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Pogon Szczecin's recent games and 50% of Górnik Łęczna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Górnik Łęczna tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Górnik Łęczna in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Pogon Szczecin run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Górnik Łęczna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Górnik Łęczna 4-1 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 10, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.85 xG and Górnik Łęczna 0.72 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Pogon Szczecin beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.10 / defence 0.93 against Górnik Łęczna attack 0.65 / defence 1.40, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 64% | Draw 22% | Górnik Łęczna 14%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 64%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 11%, Górnik Łęczna 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Górnik Łęczna's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 0.56. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Górnik Łęczna (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.