Piast Gliwice 1-1 Slask Wroclaw – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Slask Wroclaw at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Piast Gliwice vs Slask Wroclaw fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Miejski plays host to Piast Gliwice versus Slask Wroclaw in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Sunday 22 August 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Piast Gliwice have collected 1.50 PPG across 4 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 2W 0D 2L. Last five: L W L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Piast Gliwice have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Slask Wroclaw's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.25 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Slask Wroclaw have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Piast Gliwice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
Slask Wroclaw goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Piast Gliwice 50% and Slask Wroclaw 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Piast Gliwice 50% | Slask Wroclaw 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 1.71 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 1.332 / defence 1.612 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.959 / defence 1.103. League average goals — home 1.161 / away 1.124. Piast Gliwice carry an above-average attack strength of 1.332 — their λ of 1.71 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 4 Piast Gliwice games / 4 Slask Wroclaw games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 38% | Draw 22% | Slask Wroclaw 39%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 2.63 | Draw 4.55 | Slask Wroclaw 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.71 / 1.74) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slask Wroclaw are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slask Wroclaw if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.44 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Piast Gliwice 50% | Slask Wroclaw 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Slask Wroclaw | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Aug 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 38% | Draw 22% | Slask Wroclaw 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 67% | xG Piast Gliwice 1.71 / Slask Wroclaw 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 1.332 / def 1.612 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.959 / def 1.103 | league avg home 1.161 / away 1.124 • Poisson stance: Slask Wroclaw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Slask Wroclaw xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Slask Wroclaw kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Slask Wroclaw kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 22 August 2021 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Piast Gliwice vs Slask Wroclaw?
Piast Gliwice 1 - 1 Slask Wroclaw.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Slask Wroclaw being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Slask Wroclaw part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Slask Wroclaw is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 38% chance of winning, Slask Wroclaw a 39% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Slask Wroclaw the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Slask Wroclaw will score (BTTS).
Will Piast Gliwice vs Slask Wroclaw have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Slask Wroclaw?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Piast Gliwice and Slask Wroclaw in?
Piast Gliwice (all comps): 2W-0D-2L in 4 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.75 | L5 L-W-L-W. Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 1W-3D-0L in 4 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Piast Gliwice's attack rating (1.33) and Slask Wroclaw's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.71 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Slask Wroclaw's attack (0.96x) against Piast Gliwice's defence (1.61x) — and the away total comes out at 1.74.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.2%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Slask Wroclaw Win
38%
2.63
22%
4.45
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
3.44
1.74
Slask Wroclaw xG
2.63
38%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.48
33%
BTTS No
3.07
Clean Sheet
18%
5.69
18%
5.50
Win to Nil
7%
14.93
7%
13.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 9.5 | 8.2 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 8.1 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Slask Wroclaw expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 1.74 for Slask Wroclaw, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Slask Wroclaw?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Piast Gliwice's recent record stands at 2W 0D 2L from 4 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Slask Wroclaw, meanwhile, have gone 1W 3D 0L across 4 games — 1.50 PPG, with D-W-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Slask Wroclaw, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Piast Gliwice against 1.50 for Slask Wroclaw. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Piast Gliwice are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Slask Wroclaw are on 1.25 scored and 1.00 conceded. Piast Gliwice's scoring rate against Slask Wroclaw's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Slask Wroclaw in 75%.
Last 4 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Early Season
Slask Wroclaw
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Piast Gliwice and Slask Wroclaw in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 2W 0D 2L in their last 4 games (1.50 PPG), while Slask Wroclaw have gone 1W 3D 0L in their last 4 (1.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Piast Gliwice go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Piast Gliwice have gone 1W 3D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Slask Wroclaw — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Piast Gliwice
3
Draws
1
Slask Wroclaw
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Slask Wroclaw?
From 8 meetings on record, Piast Gliwice have won 4, Slask Wroclaw have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Slask Wroclaw last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2025, when Slask Wroclaw 1-3 Piast Gliwice.
Who has won more matches between Piast Gliwice and Slask Wroclaw?
Piast Gliwice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Slask Wroclaw are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Piast Gliwice 50%, Slask Wroclaw 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Piast Gliwice) and 50% (Slask Wroclaw).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Slask Wroclaw away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Piast Gliwice play Slask Wroclaw?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Piast Gliwice's games and 75% of Slask Wroclaw's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Piast Gliwice vs Slask Wroclaw usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Piast Gliwice's recent games and 50% of Slask Wroclaw's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Piast Gliwice and Slask Wroclaw tend to score early?
Piast Gliwice have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Slask Wroclaw in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Piast Gliwice and Slask Wroclaw share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Piast Gliwice and Slask Wroclaw finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 5, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.71 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.74 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 1.33 / defence 1.61 against Slask Wroclaw attack 0.96 / defence 1.10, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 38% | Draw 22% | Slask Wroclaw 39%, with Slask Wroclaw to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 50%, Slask Wroclaw 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Piast Gliwice 1.50 PPG, Slask Wroclaw 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Piast Gliwice managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.